India 2014 - Results

[njwes]

Is there anywhere we can get a sense of what % of the vote has been counted?

[jaichind]

I am off to bed.  The results are pretty clear now.  Will wake up early tomorrow to look at final results and head off to work.

[Maez]

Rahul Gandhi is apparently back in the lead.

[Maez]

According to NDT, he's up by about 80 thousand votes.

[Dereich]

Well, the BJP is at 273, technically capable of forming a government without the NDA. Really an astounding win.

[Talleyrand]

Very glad to see YSRCP heading to defeat in Seemandhra. The last thing that state needs is a personality cult lead by some sociopath with no agenda as Chief Minister. The TDP isn't a perfect alternative, but at least Naidu seems to have some level of commitment towards rural and urban (especially when it concerns Vishakhapatnam) development.

Also, the INC Chief Minister of Assam will be resigning after his party's disastrous performance in the general election in that state, where it appears they are on track to win only one seat- a net loss of seven seats.

Currently Congress is leading in forty-seven seats. If they get below fifty-five seats they may not even be able to elect an Opposition Leader in the Lok Sabha.

Arun Jaitley, the BJP Leader of the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha is currently trailing in Amritsar, where he is attempting to gain a lower house seat in Punjab.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Would also have to warn against treating any seat numbers as firm yet - a lot of votes still to count.

But, yeah, this looks about as bad as could have been.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

haha, West Bengal

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, what did Congress do to deserve this? I thought the whole Singh era was pretty non-eventful.

Precisely. Modi promises change. Of course he's going to have to deliver it now, which is where things may become tricky.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obviously counting hasn't finished yet so this is highly provisional, but note UP vote shares in 2009 vs 2014:

BJP 17.5 - 42.3
SP  23.3 - 23.4
BSP 27.4 - 19.8
INC 18.3 -   6.9

[Gustaf]

Oh, wow. That's a complete landslide. I'm quite optimistic though - I don't think Modi will emphasize communalism and I think optimism and growth-oriented policies is what India needs right now.

[covermyeyes]

As I had pointed out, the exit polls got Assam wrong, with most pollsters showing a neck to neck fight or INC sweep. In fact, the numbers had pretty much implied a BJP clean sweep. INC citadels in upper Assam falling like a house of cards.

[covermyeyes]

NDTV interpreted its data to mean a neck to neck fight. But, I argued that:

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Rather peeved with the disaster in Assam, but still got the state right I suppose. On the other hand, CNN-IBN needs to take a look at itself, as they had continued to predict a INC sweep despite all ground reports to the contrary.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One of those weird situations in which you're pleased that you're analysis was correct but...?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Seems like the BSP might not win anything: part of this is obviously down to vote distribution (other trolltastic parties have less even support patterns) but (unlike some of the others) they're also well down in vote %s.

[covermyeyes]

One of those weird situations in which you're pleased that you're analysis was correct but...?

Just looking for a silver lining I suppose.  

[covermyeyes]

Seems like the BSP might not win anything: part of this is obviously down to vote distribution (other trolltastic parties have less even support patterns) but (unlike some of the others) they're also well down in vote %s.

Signs of Hindu vote consolidation. In UP, and possibly also in places like Assam, where the BJP had always been kept at bay by the dichotomy of Bengali Hindu, Assamese Hindu, tribals, dalits, and so on. This is pretty much the worse nightmare for the INC and regional parties throughout India.

So, while BSP might have retained its hold over dalits in UP, the BJP has breached its vote bank in sufficient numbers to deliver a landslide in UP.

[covermyeyes]

Conversely, the division of Muslims is contributing to the INC disaster in Assam, with the AIUDF probably costing the party Barpeta, Karimganj, Kaliabor, Nawgong, Mangaldoi, and Guahati. In fact, AIUDF is going to win Barpeta and Karimganj outright. Lessons from this might be that there is not only a massive wave in favour of BJP, but also huge anti-incumbency against INC. Even the bogyman of Modi was not enough for Muslims to unite behind Congress in Assam.

INC Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi has been blamed precisely because he has always been against an alliance with the AIUDF. Ajmal, the leader of the AIUDF, was prepared to leave seats for INC if he had been promised Dhubri + either Karimganj or Barpeta. So add failure of leadership to the list. Sad, because this is rather an ignominious end for an astute, and mostly successful politician.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, while BSP might have retained its hold over dalits in UP, the BJP has breached its vote bank in sufficient numbers to deliver a landslide in UP.

And just add the cratering INC on top of that, yeah...

[covermyeyes]

 

So, while BSP might have retained its hold over dalits in UP, the BJP has breached its vote bank in sufficient numbers to deliver a landslide in UP.

And just add the cratering INC on top of that, yeah...

INC will recover.

BJP has a huge mandate and needless to say, also huge expectations now.

[Tender Branson]

One of those weird situations in which you're pleased that you're analysis was correct but...?

When are we expected to get your great maps ?



Or, for now, is there a good clickable map by district or state ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

INC will recover.

BJP has a huge mandate and needless to say, also huge expectations now.

Oh, I don't disagree. The (electoral) danger of an absolute victory is absolute responsibility.

[covermyeyes]

The scale of the Assam disaster is evident from Kaliabor, one of those seats I was pretty sure about for the INC. The son of Tarun Gogoi is losing from here. This is one of those out and out Congress citadels that has fallen. On the other hand, Diphu, the other seat I was sure about is returning the INC candidate. INC might also win in Silchar, where BJP has been dealing with anti-incumbency of its own.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So in 2009 people were wondering how the BJP could win if no one else wanted to play with them? They've just answered that one. The question now, though, is what is the response to this response?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Have the INC ever done this badly in Assam?