EP elections 2014 - Results Thread

[Tender Branson]

With the elections starting in 1 week, this shall be the official results thread.

* Post turnout figures & exit polls here, starting next Thursday.

* Post official results here, starting ONLY after 11pm on May 25 (so that nobobdy who's still voting is influenced by possibly leaked early results).

I will keep this locked until Thursday.

[Tender Branson]

Polls in the UK will open at 8:00 CEST (7am local time) and close at 23:00 CEST (10pm local time).

Polls in the Netherlands will open at 7:30 CEST and close at 21:00 CEST.

Exit polls should be out right after the polls close.

Official results are not released though until Sunday 11pm CEST.

[Tender Branson]

The Dutch NOS channel will have an Exit Poll from Ipsos (40.000 people surveyed) at 9pm, when polls close.

http://nos.nl/artikel/651027-de-verkiezingsavond-bij-de-nos.html

Don't know if the BBC, Sky etc. have something similar for the UK ...

Maybe the UK posters know more.

[Tender Branson]

BBC live blog:

http://www.bbc.com/news/events/vote2014

BBC results page:

http://www.bbc.com/news/events/vote2014/eu-uk-results

Important news for UK voters:

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[Diouf]

Dutch turnout figures by Ipsos so far:

8 % had voted at 10.30, it was 9 % in 2009

15 % had voted at 13.30, it was 16 % in 2009

Final turnout in 2009 was 36,75 %

http://nos.nl/artikel/651130-opkomst-om-1330-uur-15.html

[Tender Branson]

Dutch turnout figures by Ipsos so far:

8 % had voted at 10.30, it was 9 % in 2009

15 % had voted at 13.30, it was 16 % in 2009

Final turnout in 2009 was 36,75 %

http://nos.nl/artikel/651130-opkomst-om-1330-uur-15.html

The question just is: Are these figures including postal voting yet or not ?

And because today is a work-day, you can expect most people to vote after work.

Which means, based on these early figures, we cannot say yet if turnout will be down or not.

[Tender Branson]

No exit poll in the UK tonight:

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[freek]

Dutch turnout figures by Ipsos so far:

8 % had voted at 10.30, it was 9 % in 2009

15 % had voted at 13.30, it was 16 % in 2009

Final turnout in 2009 was 36,75 %

http://nos.nl/artikel/651130-opkomst-om-1330-uur-15.html

The question just is: Are these figures including postal voting yet or not ?

And because today is a work-day, you can expect most people to vote after work.

Which means, based on these early figures, we cannot say yet if turnout will be down or not.

No, these figures are without postal votes, but only people living abroad are allowed to vote by mail. Most people will vote after work, but that was also the case for 2009, so the turnout will be similar or lower than in 2009.

There will be no official results tonight (only an exitpoll), but weblog http://www.geenstijl.nl/ will have observers in about 1500 of 9000 polling stations. Results will be announced on their website.

[Tender Branson]

Dutch turnout figures by Ipsos so far:

8 % had voted at 10.30, it was 9 % in 2009

15 % had voted at 13.30, it was 16 % in 2009

Final turnout in 2009 was 36,75 %

http://nos.nl/artikel/651130-opkomst-om-1330-uur-15.html

The question just is: Are these figures including postal voting yet or not ?

And because today is a work-day, you can expect most people to vote after work.

Which means, based on these early figures, we cannot say yet if turnout will be down or not.

No, these figures are without postal votes, but only people living abroad are allowed to vote by mail. Most people will vote after work, but that was also the case for 2009, so the turnout will be similar or lower than in 2009.

There will be no official results tonight (only an exitpoll), but weblog http://www.geenstijl.nl/ will have observers in about 1500 of 9000 polling stations. Results will be announced on their website.

Well, it depends: Turnout at 5pm was 24% - the same like in 2009.

The next hours will show if turnout will be higher or lower, because now most people are voting.

[justfollowingtheelections]

The exit polls should be out anytime now. CDA and D66 are apparently fighting for first place

The results:

CDA 15.4 (5)
D66 15.3 (4)
PVV 12.7 (3)
VVD 12.1 (3)
PvdA 9.3 (2)

Can't find anything on how the other parties did.

[justfollowingtheelections]

The full results of the exit poll.

[Tender Branson]

Blago, this is only the preliminary exit poll.

Ipsos has now released their definitive exit poll and in this one D66 overtakes the CDA.

Also, turnout is 37%, the same as in 2009.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Yep, this is the definitive poll



And the seats by party:


I'm happy for the animal rights party winning a seat.

[Tender Branson]

Remember that in 2009 Wilders PVV did 3% better in the actual vote count than in the exit poll.

So, better wait until Sunday when the votes are released.

[Cassius]

True, but even so, that's a surprisingly bad result for them (unless I missed something).

[justfollowingtheelections]

Well yes, I'm actually surprised they appear to be doing so bad in the polls.  I thought they were going to win first place.  I guess some people are ashamed to admit they would vote for them?

[Zanas]

Few surprises for the Netherlands. PVV was a bit higher in the polls, I don't know if it can be any indication of how the eurosceptic far-right will underperform their polling scores ? I guess we'll be able to check with Ukip later.

PvdD wasn't anywhere near 4.2% in the polls though, was it ? I'm glad as well. Anybody know where they would sit ? I would guess Greens/EFA, but I don't know how their relations with GroenLinks are.

Also, I had compensated SP's lead over PvdA in my prediction, but not enough. Never, ever, enough. Sigh...

edit : I'm forgetting that these are only exit polls. Never do that, you fool! So take the above with all the grains of salt it needs...

[Diouf]

GeenStijl has made their first exit poll with results including 200 000 voters.

http://www.geenstijl.nl/mt/archieven/2014/05/tussenuitslag_geenpeil.html

Results are similar to Ipsos, expect for 1 more seat for PVV and no seat for 50Plus

[freek]

Probably not completely legal, but this is the result of 'my' polling station, and the result in the 2012 and 2010 national elections. Unfortunately, I don't have the result of the 2009 EP elections anymore.

[Zinneke]

Why do CDA historically well in European elections?

[freek]

Why do CDA historically well in European elections?

Low turnout.

[Tender Branson]

The official results page from the European Parliament:

http://www.results-elections2014.eu/en

[Diouf]

RTÉ exit polls for the European elections in Ireland

Exit poll for Ireland
Fine Gael (EPP) 22%
Fianna Fáil (ALDE) 22%
Sinn Féin (GUE-NGL) 17%
Labour (S&D) 6%
Green Party (Greens) 6%
Others/Independents 27 %

Exit poll for Dublin (3 seats)
Lynn Boylan, Sinn Féin 24%
Brian Hayes, Fine Gael 14%
Eamon Ryan, Green Party 14%
Mary Fitzpatrick, Fianna Fáil 12%
Nessa Childers, independent 11%
Emer Costello,  Labour 8%
Paul Murphy, Socialist Party 7%
Brid Smith, People Before Profit 6 %

Exit poll for South (4 seats)
Brian Crowley, Fianna Fáil 26 %
Liadh Ni Riada, Sinn Féin 17 %
Sean Kelly, Fine Gael 12%
Deirdre Clune, Fine Gael 9%
Simon Harris, Fine Gael 7%
Kieran Hartley, Fianna Fáil 5%
Grace O’Sullivan, Green Party 5%
Phil Prendergast, Labour 5%
Diarmuid O'Flynn, independent 5%

Exit poll for Midlands–North-West (4 seats)
Luke 'Ming' Flanagan, independent 20%
Mairead McGuinness, Fine Gael 16%
Matt Carthy, Sinn Féin 13%
Pat the Cope Gallagher, Fianna Fáil 11%
Marian Harkin, independent 11%
Thomas Byrne, Fianna Fáil 10%
Jim Higgins, Fine Gael 7 %
Lorraine Higgins, Labour 4%
Rónán Mullen, independent 4%

Live blog from the Irish Times here: http://liveblog.irishtimes.com/9581afbb95/LIVE-Elections/

EDIT: Deleted seat predictions as they were probably a bit off

[EPG]

My only caveat is that the exit poll company has no past experience.

Having said that, clearly, the Irish elections had high turnout. Presumably, that means a strong youth vote and turnout in low-income areas. This is good for Sinn Féin and the far left; the independents also benefit from the youth vote.

The best media coverage is on RTÉ Radio One.

The other exit poll is:
Midlands-North-West (4-seater, 20% quota)

Flanagan (Ind, Eurosceptic) 20%
McGuinness (FG / EPP) 16%
Carthy (SF / GUE) 13%
Gallagher (FF / ALDE) 11%
Marian Harkin (Ind / ALDE) 11%
Thomas Byrne (FF / ALDE) 10%
Jim Higgins (FG / EPP) 7%
Lorraine Higgins (Lab / S&D) 4%
Rónán Mullan (Ind, Catholic) 4%
Mark Dearey (Green / EGP) 2%
Others <= 1% each

Smashing performance by Flanagan - I thought he'd come fifth in my prediction thread post, due to his reliance on the ephemeral populist/anti-system vote, which wasn't enough to elect Declan Ganley in 2009 in a smaller constituency with a bigger campaign bandwagon. I must say that his behaviour has made me despise the man. But this is an incredible achievement if true. He would be the first MEP ever elected by Ireland on a primarily Eurosceptic platform.

Otherwise likely to be McGuinness, then a scrap between Cope, Harkin, Carthy.

EDIT: In Northern Ireland, the council elections suggest the SDLP threat to the UUP has receded, but the TUV did much better than expected. Thus, the final seat may be between the UUP and TUV.

Finally, you do need to keep an eye on this liveblog for important stories like:

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[Antonio the Sixth]

So no UK results yet?