The West Wing: Santos v. Vinick

[NHI]

Santos Announces Reelection

After a tumultuous first term, and speculation that he might not seek reelection President Matt Santos announced his intention to run for a second term. Santos experienced some foreign policy missteps, which ultimately led to the resignation of his Secretary of State Arnold Vinick, who said he could no longer support the policies of the Administration, leading to the speculation that he me challenge Santos for reelection. Adding to Santos' problems has been the economic crisis. Unemployment currently stands at 7 percent and onset of the recession has brought Santos' approval ratings to a record low of 45 percent.

Sullivan Considering a Bid

"I am weighing my options and will make a decision over the next few months. I think we've seen a lack of leadership coming from the White House across the board and it is time to change."

Former Speaker Haffley Announced Bid for President

"I announce my campaign for President of the United States."

Former Sec. of State Vinick 'Serious' about another run

Arnold Vinick, the man who lost to President Matt Santos four years ago, and then served as his secretary of state for two years is now considering challenging his one time rival and boss. "I have been very concerned about the direction of the country. I couldn't continue to serve as Secretary because I did not support the policies of the President, we have a feckless foreign policy and I could not execute it." When asked about a possible second bid, Vinick, who at the time of his appointment denounced a second bid as unlikely, now seems more receptive to the idea. "I am serious about another run for the Presidency." Vinick, who would be the frontrunner should he run does have some legitimacy on a second run, say political pundits, given Vinick won the popular vote in the close election between he and Santos. Still, having worked for two years as Secretary of State maybe a barrier in the Republican Primary. Though, Vinick's moderate stances did not prevent him from running and winning the nomination the last time around and if he can make the case, many believe he can win the nomination.

Hypothetical match ups shows the Former Secretary of State defeating President Santos handily. 51 percent to 44 percent.

[RR1997]

As a huge fan of The West Wing, I think this looks good so far. Please continue.

[Del Tachi]

Let's go Vinick!

[NHI]

Santos vs. Vinick: Four Years Earlier

√ Congressman Matt Santos/Secretary Leo McGarry 272 (49%)

Senator Arnold Vinick/Governor Ray Sullivan: 266 (50%)

Vinick: I'm in

"Today, I declare my candidacy for President of the United States. I am in this race because I am concerned about the direction of this country and the lack of leadership coming from the White House. Now I served this President as Secretary of State, but I could no longer support the policies and the vision. Today, I stake my campaign on bringing a different vision for America. A competent foreign policy and a renewed economy. President Santos famously said during our debate four years ago that a President has to lead. He has to head off problems, well take a look around and you can see he has not led and he has not headed off problems....I believe in second chances and I ask the American people for a second chance and if given the honor of being elected I promise to do my utmost to be worthy of your trust."

Sam Seaborn Tapped to be Santos' Reelection Campaign Manager

"If Vinick is the Republican nominee this election will be a choice: Do we go forward or back to the past."

President Bartlett: Looking Back

Former President Joshia "Jed" Bartlett sat down for a one-on-one interview to discuss the opening on his Presidential Library in Concord, NH, on politics, on his health and how he ranks the Presidency of Matthew Santos.

"I'm not dead, yet. I have my good days and bad days, but I'm enjoying private life and retirement greatly. We spend time with our grandchildren and children and merely love living a quite life."

"The library is meant to offer patrons a view of all the decisions I had to make over eight years and we have a section in the library where they go in and literally be President and have to make the decisions, being presented with the same situations I was and from there seeing the options. It's very intriguing."

"I don't know how I feel about being considered one of the best Presidents of the last twenty-five years. I still think the verdict is out and I'll be long gone when the judgement is delivered. Nevertheless, I'm happy with the decision I made as President. Did I make mistakes, sure, but I did my best and frankly that's all that can be asked."

"I don't pay too much attention to politics much anymore. After all I am retired. Still I see Arnie Vinick is running again. Decent man; I still it'll be tough to beat Santos. He's got challenges right now, but I think can pull through if he communicates to the American people his vision for the country and why America will be better off with him in the Oval Office, rather than a Republican."

Statement from the Haffley Campaign on Vinick's Announcement

Arnold Vinick deserves our deepest praise for his service to the country. He is a decent and honorable man, but his time on the national stage has passed. If he couldn't defeat President Santos four years ago, what makes him think he can now?

Ray Sullivan Backs Out of Race: Endorses Vinick

"America would be in a better place today if Arnold Vinick had been elected four years ago. We need him now more than ever and I fully endorse his candidacy for President."

Edward Pratt Announces Candidacy For President: "We need a Conservative Who Can Win!"

Republican Nomination:

Vinick: 39%

Haffley: 25%

Pratt: 20%

Undecided: 16%

[RR1997]

Let's go Vinick!

[TX Conservative Dem]

Democratic fatigue after 12 consecutive years of controlling the White House.

What year would the election be held though ?

[MATTROSE94]

Democratic fatigue after 12 consecutive years of controlling the White House.

What year would the election be held though ?

I think it would have been held in 2010.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Democratic fatigue after 12 consecutive years of controlling the White House.

What year would the election be held though ?

I think it would have been held in 2010.

Presidential Elections happened in our midterm years in the show, so yeah it's 2010. Go Santos! A question though, why isn't Josh running the campaign? I know he became Chief of Staff, but still.

[badgate]

In the post-show fan universe I though Josh went on to become chair of DNC.

[NHI]

Statement from DNC Chairman Josh Lyman

"It doesn't matter who the Republican nominate, because all three candidates are one in the same. They stand for the past, while President Santos stands for the future. They are running on the same old platform of anti-government, tax cuts for the wealthy and trickle down economics. We've seen this show before and the Republicans are a one trick pony. We've seen their dysfunction in Congress over the last two years, we can't afford this type of lack thereof leadership."

Vinick Deflects Attacks from Rivals

Arnold Vinick continues to focus on the high road, specifically President Santos, rather than engage directly with his Republican opponents. Both Pratt and Haffley continue to blast Vinick for not being a true conservative and that nominating him would setup a lost for the Republican Party again. "We as a party have got to stop trying to out-Republican or out-conservative one another. I am proud Republican and have been loyal to the party and always will be. I will put my credentials up against anyone in this primary, but I think we need to stop attacking each other and start talking about what we're for and what we'll do as President. We've got a President who couldn't lead his way out of a paper bag and that needs to change."

Haffley Stakes his Campaign on Iowa

"President Santos is a classic Democrat. A tax and spend liberal. He wants to spend our way to prosperity? How's that working Mr. President. We need to draw a clear contrast with him, let us be a party of bold colors not pale pastels."

Santos Hit The Campaign Trail

Coming off the failure of his Job Bill in the Senate, President Santos took to the campaign trail attacking Republicans for obstructing his economic proposals. "The Republican know the only way they can win is by convincing the American people that the economy is terrible. They say they want to fix the economy. Well, why not pass the jobs bill and put America back to work? Stop obstructing and start leading!"

Heading into the Iowa Caucuses conservatives were split between Pratt and Haffley, leading many to speculate that Vinick could slip through with a narrow win. However, the former Secretary of State focused superficially on the state, and only participated in three of the seven debates. Vinick continued to focus on the general election, not his Republican opponents. The move cost Vinick; he lost the caucus to Haffley causing his numbers to fall nationally and in New Hampshire.

√ Iowa Caucus Winner: Jeff Haffley

√ Jeffrey Haffley: 39% (15)

Arnold Vinick: 31% (10)

Ed Pratt: 27% (9)

Other: 3%

Vinick: "New Hampshire Picks Presidents"

The Vinick Campaign coasted into New Hampshire, his poll numbers sliding, Vinick reshuffled his campaign and brought Bruno Gianelli from his first campaign to serve as a campaign consultant and campaign manager. Gianelli came in to stop the bleeding. Vinick  returned to the campaign style that won him support four year earlier and it translated into success.

After debate between the candidates Vinick emerged the clear winner, denouncing Haffley's attacks on his age 'as a desperate attack' and positioned himself as the one candidate who actually had a record of governing. "I am someone who had gotten stuff done. I have a record. My opponents have speeches and talk."

Vinick routed Haffley in the New Hampshire Primary by thirteen points. Following the primary Pratt ended his campaign, endorsing Haffley in the process and pledging his 10 delegates to him. In his concession speech Haffley positioned himself as the conservative alternative to Vinick. "It is clear this is a two man race between a moderate Republica and a true conservative."

New Hampshire Primary: Republicans

√ Arnold Vinick: 47% ( 8 )

Jeffrey Haffley: 34% (3)

Ed Pratt: 16% (1)

Other: 3%

Jeffrey Haffley: 28

Arnold Vinick: 18

Edward Pratt: 10

General Election Poll: Vinick +5

Arnold Vinick: 49%

Matt Santos: 44

General Election Poll: Tied

Jeffrey Haffley: 45%

Matt Santos: 45%

Santos: 180 (44%)

Republican Candidate: 178 (51%)

[badgate]

This is a really cool idea.

I'm tempted to do a TL that follows the pre-Bartlet presidents (D.W., the one-term Democrat, and Lassiter, the two term conservative who is supposed to be like Reagan)

[NHI]

This is a really cool idea.

I'm tempted to do a TL that follows the pre-Bartlet presidents (D.W., the one-term Democrat, and Lassiter, the two term conservative who is supposed to be like Reagan)

That'd be cool!

[TX Conservative Dem]

Santos' VP would've been Baker, the PA Governor.

[NHI]

Too Old to Be President?

The aging former Secretary of State faced criticism from his Republican rivals over his age, specifically Jeff Haffley, who railed against Vinick as a "Republican-In-Name-Only" and questioned whether or not he was not old for the job. "We need to at least be honest with ourselves over whether or not he is up to the job." National polls show a tight race between Haffley and Vinick. (47% for Vinick, 45% for Haffley).

Vinick Addresses The Age Issue

Your opponents are making an issue of your age. Are you up to the job if elected? "Age is a number and I am not going to make a political issue of my opponents youth and inexperience."

You came up short four years ago, and you served as Secretary of State for this President. Two fold: 1. What makes you believe you can win this time. 2. Does your service as Secretary of State hurt you in the Republican Primary? "I won the popular vote four years ago, and I believe because of this President's failure of leadership I can beat him in the electoral college this time. To your second question, I will always put the country above party politics. I served this President because I love country and I served until I could no longer execute the foreign policy of the President. I have no regrets about my service anyone who questions me on it is questioning my patriotism and playing petty political games."

Michigan Primary: Republican

√ Arnold Vinick: 53% (17)

Jeffrey Haffley: 46% (13)

Other: 1%

In the Michigan Primary Vinick cruised to an easy victory over Haffley and the week later scored a narrow, but sentimental victory in the Nevada Caucuses, the state which delivered the Presidency to Matt Santos four years earlier. To his credit, Haffley largely wrote off Nevada, instead focusing on South Carolina and Florida, as the two key states before Super Tuesday. Haffley secured the nomination of the former Florida Governor and 2002 Republican Nominee Robert Ritchie, while the incumbent Governor Eric Swenson remained on the fence.

Haffley: "I'm a Conservative! Vinick is not."

Playing largely to the conservative electorate Haffley bashed Vinick for his moderate views, while the former Secretary of State tried to avoid engaging Haffley, but when pushed he attacked the former Speaker of the House as "spewing the type of stupid rhetoric that turns the American people away from politics. I'm all for having a debate, but I'm not for having stupid debate."

Though Vinick managed to closed the gap Haffley walked away victorious setting the two up for a heated contest in the Florida primary.

South Carolina Primary: Republican

√ Jeffrey Haffley: 52% (14)

Arnold Vinick: 47% (10)

Other: 2%

Vinick Campaigns in Florida

Arnold Vinick campaigned for his political life in Florida, crisscrossing the state, trying to upset Haffley, who, by most polls, led Vinick by one to two points. Two days before the primary they were in a dead heat. Most pundits speculated a loss for Vinick in Florida would end his chances for the nomination. "He must win Florida," his campaign manager said, "And he will." On the day before the vote Vinick received a surprise endorsement from Governor Swenson, who after being pressed by Haffley for an endorsement pledged neutrality, but decided to break his commitment and backed Vinick, pushing him over the top in the state.

Florida Primary: Republican

√ Arnold Vinick: 50.9% (50)

Jeff Haffley: 47.8%

Statement from the Haffley Campaign:

"We congratulate Secretary Vinick on his win tonight in Florida. However, the campaign is far from over and we look forward to being successful in the upcoming contests on Super Tuesday and believe a clear frontrunner will be established after that night.

Arnold Vinick: 113

Jeffrey Haffley: 68

Vinick's win in Florida solidified his status of frontrunner and most pundits declared the race essentially over. While Haffley remained in the race, through Super Tuesday and did win a few primaries (Washington, Louisianan and Wyoming) he could not catchup to Vinick's lead in the delegates and ended his campaign in March and threw his support to Vinick.

Post-Super Tuesday Map

Arnold Vinick: 793

Jeffrey Haffley: 360

AP: VINICK WINS REPUBLICAN NOMINATION -- MARCH 2010

General Election Polling: Vinick +5

Arnold Vinick: 49%

Matt Santos: 44%

Moving quickly, after securing the Republican nomination, Vinick announced the selection of his running mate former Speaker of the House Glenn Walken. The pick was praised across the board. Walken helped assure Missouri and Republican base for Vinick, as well as balanced the ticket with an equally competent individual, who already had served as Acting President during the Bartlett Administration.

"America is at a turning point. You know it and I know it. The President has made us weak abroad and broke at home. It's time for a change. It's time for real leadership again. It's time for the man who should have been President, but will be President this time around, my friend and a great leader, Arnold Vinick!"

[TX Conservative Dem]

I wonder whatever happened to Charlie Young and his girlfriend, Zoe ?

[NHI]

General Election Polling: Vinick +6

Arnold Vinick: 50%

Matt Santos: 44%

The latest uptick in unemployment delivered a dire round of polling for the Santos campaign. The latest tracking poll had Vinick leading the President by 6 points. Among independents Vinick leads the President 51 percent to 43 percent. The increasingly weak economy has Democrats concerned across the board, though the Santos campaign remains optimistic; stating that they always believed it to be close race given Vinick as the Republican nominee.

Unemployment Rate: 7.9% (Up from 7.7%)

Santos Campaigns in California

"Arnold Vinick, will say anything to be President of the United States. He's an opportunist."

Vinick Sticks to Issues

"I do hope this isn't the kind of campaign the President is planning on running for the fall. The American people deserve leadership, they deserve real discussion. We're in a crisis in this country and the President is resorting to the politics as usual, well that's not the campaign I intend to run. I'm going to speak about what I'm for and refuse to bash my opponent. I want to talk about getting the economy going again and how we do it that is with the tax plan I proposed four years ago."

Approval Rating: President Santos
Disapprove: 48%
Approve: 44%
Undecided/No opinion: 8%

Approval Rating: Secretary Vinick
Approve: 52%
Disapprove: 39%
Undecided/No opinion: 10%

Approval Rating: Frm. President Bartlett
Approve: 58%
Disapprove: 31%
Undecided/No opinion: 11%

Who is Best to Handle the Economy? (Vinick +7)

Vinick: 52%

Santos: 45%

Who is Best to Handle Foreign Policy? (Vinick +7)

Vinick: 51%

Santos: 44%

Who is More in Touch with the Average Voter? (Vinick +5)

Vinick: 48%

Santos: 43%

Is Arnold Vinick Too To Be President?

No: 52%
Yes: 43%
Undecided/No Opinion: 5%

Breakdown of Support for the Candidates:

Arnold Vinick:

Republicans: 90%

Democrats: 15%

Independents: 51%

Matt Santos:

Democrats: 82%

Republicans: 4%

Independents: 43%

State of the Electoral Map:

Arnold Vinick: 266 (96 EV Lean Vinick/170 EV Solid Vinick)

Matt Santos: 180 (73 EV Lean Santos/107 EV Solid Santos)

Tossup: 92

[TX Conservative Dem]

Stick a fork in Santos: he's DONE!

[Mister Mets]

Loving it.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Santos better start making plans for his retirement and build a presidential library in Houston now.

Hello President-Elect Vinick.

Say, how would Latinos, African Americans, Asians and Anglos vote in a Santos-Vinick rematch ?

[badgate]

Say, how would Latinos, African Americans, Asians and Anglos vote in a Santos-Vinick rematch ?

We're going to find out.

[NHI]

Santos & Vinick: Game on

AP - October 2010

The focus of the single debate between President Santos and Former Secretary of State Vinick was as lively as their encounter four years ago. Santos, who's number slightly recovered after the Democratic Convention in Tampa was continuously attacked by Vinick who what he called "a failure of leadership on the economy." Santos tried to defend his record on the economy and shifted blame to the Republican Congress. Vinick refuted such a claim, blasting Santos. "The President is not to be the President of Excuses, but a leader. You have to work with both sides, you cannot throw up your hands and say it's all the other guys fault." Vinick attacked Santos over the rising unemployment which rose to 8.1 percent. Santos' best comments came when he talked about his proposals for immigration reform and his zinger on Vinick for stepping down as Secretary of State. "When the going gets rough Arnold Vinick chose to step down, that's not leadership, it's opportunism." Still, Santos did not have an shining moments, like his defense of liberalism in the debate four years ago.

Still most viewers found Vinick to be the winner of the debate, building on his already growing lead in the national and state polls.

Who Won the Presidential Debate?

Arnold Vinick: 48%

Matt Santos: 29%

Tie: 14%

Undecided: 10%

General Election Poll: Vinick +8

Arnold Vinick: 51%

Matt Santos: 43%

Undecided: 6%

Election Night: 2010

President Matthew Santos: 0 (0%)

Frm. Secretary of State Arnold Vinick: 0 (0%)

Good Evening and welcome to our coverage of Election Night 2010. The contest between President Matt Santos and Former Secretary of State Arnold Vinick comes down to this moment. Polls indicate a significant lead by Arnold Vinick, but it is far from over yet. We are now ready to project some state.

South Carolina: 0%

√ Arnold Vinick: 55%

Matt Santos: 44%

Vermont: Too Early to Call

Arnold Vinick: 53%

Matt Santos: 46%

Indiana: 1%

√ Arnold Vinick: 57%

Matt Santos: 42%

Kentucky: 1%

√ Arnold Vininck: 56%

Matt Santos: 43%

West Virginia: 1%

√ Arnold Vinick: 57%

Matt Santos: 42%

Georgia: 1%

√ Arnold Vinick: 56%

Matt Santos: 43%

Frm. Secretary of State Arnold Vinick: 49 (56.2%)

President Matt Santos: 0 (42.8%)

"An early lead for for Mr. Vinick in the electoral college. Still waiting to make calls on Ohio, which is too close to call at this time."

Ohio: Too lose to Call

Arnold Vinick: 51%

Matt Santos: 48%

[TX Conservative Dem]

NHI, can you do a CNN-style exit poll between Vinick vs Santos rematch to see how African Americans, Latinos, Asian/Pacific Islanders, and Anglos voted ?

[NHI]

9:35 PM EST

Frm. Secretary of State: Arnold Vinick: 218 (54%)

President Matthews Santos: 90 (45%)

By nine-thirty Vinick was already the winner in the key states of Florida and Ohio and was narrowly trailing Santos in the state of Texas. (51% - 48%) Polls show a dead heat in key states like New Jersey and Pennsylvania, causing Democrats to panic. Networks started making projections in the uncalled states of Vermont, Connecticut and Arizona for Vinick. By ten o'clock Vinick the floodgates opened and he was only sixteen votes shy of the 270 needed for victory. The polls in Texas continued to show an increasingly tight race, with Vinick only up by a few thousand votes.

By 10:15 pm Santos made a call to Vinick and conceded the election. Networks officially projected Vinick the winner following his victories in New Mexico, Nevada and Wisconsin; all three states carried by Santos in 2006..

√ Arnold Vinick Elected President

√ Frm. Secretary of State: Arnold Vinick: 275 (54%)

President Matthew Santos: 90 (45%)

Arnold Vinick routed President Santos in one of the greatest defeats of an incumbent President. Vinick carried 39 states to Santos' 11. Hindered by a weak economy and foreign policy missteps Santos lost the election, but conceded with grace to the inevitable Vinick Presidency. "I wish him as I wish this country well."

√ Frm. Secretary of Arnold Vinick: 398 (54.4%)

President Matthew Santos: 140 (44.8%)

"A new day begins for America tonight and I pledge to be a President worthy of your sacred trust and will to the best of my ability faithfully discharged the duties entrusted upon me -- so help me God..." -- Arnold Vinick, Election Night

[TX Conservative Dem]

NHI, so we can assume the CNN-like Exit Polls looked like this on how Americans voted:
Anglos
Vinick-55%
Santos-43%

African Americans
Santos-81%
Vinick-19%

Latinos
Santos-65%
Vinick-35%

Asian/Pacific Islanders
Vinick-61
Santos-38 ??

Not sure, but let me know if you can calculate the exit polling numbers.

Can't wait for how the Vinick administration is going to handle the pressures of every crisis coming the Old Man's way.

[Free Bird]

Bump4VinickAdministration