Atlanta Journal Constitution Poll: Nunn leads all Republicans
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Author Topic: Atlanta Journal Constitution Poll: Nunn leads all Republicans  (Read 1794 times)
Lief 🗽
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« on: May 09, 2014, 05:17:40 PM »

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http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2014/05/09/ajc-poll-carter-in-tight-race-with-deal-nunn-leading-gop-senate-contenders/
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windjammer
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« Reply #1 on: May 09, 2014, 05:20:16 PM »

Unfortunately, it won't be enough probably.
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moderatevoter
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« Reply #2 on: May 09, 2014, 05:41:16 PM »

I think Nunn will be closer than most Georgia Dems, but I don't see her hitting 50% + 1 against someone not named Broun or Gingrey.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #3 on: May 09, 2014, 05:58:40 PM »

Note of caution that GA undecideds historically break like two-to-one for the GOP
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #4 on: May 10, 2014, 02:32:15 AM »

Note of caution that GA undecideds historically break like two-to-one for the GOP

Shh BK don't ruin our fun while it lasts

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DrScholl
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« Reply #5 on: May 10, 2014, 11:51:37 AM »

Nunn 46 Perdue 45

Nunn 49 Handel 41

Nunn 50 Kingston 40

Nunn 51 Broun 38

Nunn 52 Gingrey 37

http://www.myajc.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/ajc-poll-finds-tight-races-for-governor-senate/nfsXR/?icmp=ajc_internallink_invitationbox_apr2013_ajcstub1#1db5ce5b.3564794.735363

Dominating
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2014, 11:57:24 AM »


Considering Perdue is the likely GOP nominee, a 1 point lead is not "dominating".
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windjammer
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« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2014, 11:59:41 AM »

A mix between a lack of name recognition and a flawed pollster I guess?
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DrScholl
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« Reply #8 on: May 10, 2014, 12:23:18 PM »


Dominating is the running sarcasm on the forum, courtesy of krazen.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #9 on: May 10, 2014, 03:11:22 PM »

A mix between a lack of name recognition and a flawed pollster I guess?

Likely voters know who all of these candidates are at this point by and large - we're getting buried under a sea of mailers, commercials, robo-calls, yard signs, billboards, etc - and I'm not even in the ATL media market (though definitely in the heart of R-land). Nunn has the lowest profile of all of them in this regard right now.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #10 on: May 10, 2014, 03:53:01 PM »

It's too bad Broun and Gingrey's primary campaigns are disasters. Either of them winning would make Lean D. Sad
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Flake
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« Reply #11 on: May 10, 2014, 04:26:09 PM »

New Poll: Georgia Senator by Atlanta Journal Constitution on 2014-05-08

Summary: D: 45%, R: 44%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Never
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« Reply #12 on: May 11, 2014, 09:18:53 PM »

I think it is important to see who Nunn gets to 50% against in this poll (Kingston, Broun, and Gingrey). If any of those three Republicans somehow got nominated, Nunn would probably be able to win. On the other hand, Perdue is holding her to a 1% lead, and the primaries haven't even happened yet. If he wins the nomination, I'm thinking that he will get a bump in support that will be enough to give him the lead. If I'm not mistaken, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution also polled the governor's race, which shows Deal leading Carter by 4 points. Considering Deal probably has more baggage than Perdue, it would appear that Deal is maintaining his edge because he doesn't have any Republican opponents. We will probably see Perdue with a lead along that line once he doesn't have conservative opposition. I'm sure that this same line of thinking would apply to Handel as well if she becomes the GOP Senate nominee, but an 8 point deficit in the polls is nothing to shrug off. Handel would have to come out of the primaries swinging, working hard to rally support. Given Georgia's Republican lean, Handel can probably win this election, but she will have to fight for it.
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moderatevoter
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« Reply #13 on: May 11, 2014, 09:25:28 PM »
« Edited: May 11, 2014, 09:30:28 PM by ModerateVAVoter »

I still maintain that anyone other than Broun or Gingrey should win in the end - even Kingston. Kingston's problem is that he has a rural geographic base, whereas Perdue and Handel have higher name recognition in the Atlanta suburbs. That problem has some affect on these polls.

Nunn's problem is the run-off. She has to get 50% + 1 on the first ballot, because turnout in Georgia drops. Chambliss was up by like 3 on the first ballot, yet won by double digits in the run-off in 2008.

Also, maybe this is irrelevant, but none of Nunn's ads mention she's a Democrat. So far, she's airing really nice bio ads and running on things like banning congressmen from becoming lobbyists and making sure that members of Congress don't get healthcare subsidies. Once the general election campaign starts and she gets associated with the Democratic party more, I'm certainly her numbers will drop at least marginally.
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