Pence vs. O'Malley

[Suburbia]

Between Govs. Pence and O'Malley, how would this election shape up? Discuss with maps.

[MurrayBannerman]

Pence/Rubio - 298
O'Malley/Shumlin - 240

[Potatoe]

Michigan goes Republican? kthxbai.

[MurrayBannerman]

Michigan goes Republican? kthxbai.

Call me when Martin O'Malley is a good candidate.

[Potatoe]

Michigan goes Republican? kthxbai.

Call me when Martin O'Malley is a good candidate.

Call me when Mike Pence is a good candidate.

[MurrayBannerman]

Michigan goes Republican? kthxbai.

Call me when Martin O'Malley is a good candidate.

Call me when Mike Pence is a good candidate.

I don't totally disagree with this, but there's a valley between the two.

Not to mention, Pence's vocational education policy will appeal to the blue collar Michiganders.

[Potatoe]

Michigan goes Republican? kthxbai.

Call me when Martin O'Malley is a good candidate.

Call me when Mike Pence is a good candidate.

I don't totally disagree with this, but there's a valley between the two.

Not to mention, Pence's vocational education policy will appeal to the blue collar Michiganders.

Vocational Education Policy isn't going to help win a state that has been won by Obama twice, in 2008 with an eighteen point margin. Also, he's a Tea Partier, Michigan doesn't like their Tea Party, unless their in specific Congressional district.

[MurrayBannerman]

Michigan goes Republican? kthxbai.

Call me when Martin O'Malley is a good candidate.

Call me when Mike Pence is a good candidate.

I don't totally disagree with this, but there's a valley between the two.

Not to mention, Pence's vocational education policy will appeal to the blue collar Michiganders.

Vocational Education Policy isn't going to help win a state that has been won by Obama twice, in 2008 with an eighteen point margin. Also, he's a Tea Partier, Michigan doesn't like their Tea Party, unless their in specific Congressional district.

It'll certainly help when the Democratic candidate isn't championed as the savior of the auto industry.

[Maxwell]

Pence is a far stronger candidate than O'Malley. Pence would win.

[Potatoe]

Michigan goes Republican? kthxbai.

Call me when Martin O'Malley is a good candidate.

Call me when Mike Pence is a good candidate.

I don't totally disagree with this, but there's a valley between the two.

Not to mention, Pence's vocational education policy will appeal to the blue collar Michiganders.

Vocational Education Policy isn't going to help win a state that has been won by Obama twice, in 2008 with an eighteen point margin. Also, he's a Tea Partier, Michigan doesn't like their Tea Party, unless their in specific Congressional district.

It'll certainly help when the Democratic candidate isn't championed as the savior of the auto industry.

Fine, I'll concede that'd it be closer, but only minorly so. Pence is a boring Candidate like O'Malley, but has the problem of being both a Tea Partier and only being elected by only four in Indiana over a crappy candidate.

[MurrayBannerman]

Pence is a far stronger candidate than O'Malley. Pence would win.

Exactly, I don't love Pence as a candidate (purely because of his strong ties to far right social conservatism), but O'Malley is a wet paper bag.

[Brewer]

Pence would win, but I highly doubt O'Malley would choose Shumlin as Veep...

[MurrayBannerman]

Pence would win, but I highly doubt O'Malley would choose Shumlin as Veep...

I wasn't really sure who to pick. Went with the first O'Malley ticket I saw.

[Mister Mets]

I don't particularly care for O'Malley, but he seems to be a generic Democrat.

Pence seems to be a below-average Republican nominee. He was about ten points below Romney in Indiana.

O'Malley's best pick would be a female Senator outside of the Acela corridor.

Susanna Martinez adds diversity to the Republican ticket, while allowing Pence to double down on Republican leadership.

I think the likeliest map is a repeat of 2012.

O'Malley/ Klobuchar- 332 Electoral Votes
Pence/ Martinez- 206 Electoral Votes

[Maxwell]

Pointing out Pence ran behind Romney is kind of a weak argument - the Democratic candidate was a strong one, and negative coat tails of Mourdock would certainly be stronger in a statewide race than they would be in a Presidential race.

And if we are talking about running behind, O'Malley ran as the incumbent in a very red Maryland, winning 56% of the vote, while Obama won the state in 08 and 12 with 62%. Not quite an apples to apples comparison, but O'Malley is weaker than the average Democrat.

Also, none of this takes into account actual things that would matter in an election, just previous electoral results. O'Malley is a downright terrible public speaker, coming with one of the most laughable speeches of the 2012 cycle. Pence, while not exactly exciting, is not embarassing himself in his speeches.

I can see O'Malley winning against Perry, Cruz, and MAYBE Jindal, but that's about it for talked about candidates. Pence would certainly obliterate him.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I think it would be a close election with Pence slightly eeking out the victory with under 300 EV's.  Michigan stays Democrat, but it is not called until later in the evening.

[MurrayBannerman]

I think it would be a close election with Pence slightly eeking out the victory with under 300 EV's.  Michigan stays Democrat, but it is not called until later in the evening.

I could buy that as well. I should have also probably had Nevada flipped.

[IceSpear]

Both Pence and O'Malley aren't ideal candidates, and the election would likely be very close, and be decided by Virginia. Would O'Malley being from Maryland help him in NoVa?

[Never]

I think there is one significant difference between Pence and O'Malley that is important to remember. O'Malley is a generic liberal who probably won't inspire the left, and while Pence is not an exciting candidate by any means, the Tea Party will coalesce around him by the time the Republican National Convention concludes. Both O'Malley and Pence could attempt to solidify the base with strong vice-presidential candidates. Pence would also have the benefit of being able to attack the Obama Administration in 2016, while there is not much low-hanging political fruit that O'Malley would be able to take advantage of. Pence might have some extra appeal in the Midwest and Rust Belt, but I wouldn't count on it to flip any major states that Bush Jr. couldn't win in 2000/2004.

It might be close, but I think that Pence would defeat O'Malley. With regard to both electoral and popular vote, I believe that it would be a closer Republican victory than 2004, but larger than 2000. It would probably take until Wednesday or Thursday after the election for Pence to pass the 270 electoral-vote threshold required for victory. Either Colorado, Virginia, or Iowa would be the tipping point state; I'd say that the most likely state to get Pence over to 270 would be Colorado.

Mike Pence/Kelly Ayotte (R) - 281 Electoral Votes/50% popular vote
Martin O'Malley/Kirsten Gillibrand - 257 Electoral Votes/48% popular vote

[Mister Mets]

Pointing out Pence ran behind Romney is kind of a weak argument - the Democratic candidate was a strong one, and negative coat tails of Mourdock would certainly be stronger in a statewide race than they would be in a Presidential race.

And if we are talking about running behind, O'Malley ran as the incumbent in a very red Maryland, winning 56% of the vote, while Obama won the state in 08 and 12 with 62%. Not quite an apples to apples comparison, but O'Malley is weaker than the average Democrat.

Also, none of this takes into account actual things that would matter in an election, just previous electoral results. O'Malley is a downright terrible public speaker, coming with one of the most laughable speeches of the 2012 cycle. Pence, while not exactly exciting, is not embarassing himself in his speeches.

I can see O'Malley winning against Perry, Cruz, and MAYBE Jindal, but that's about it for talked about candidates. Pence would certainly obliterate him.

Obama wasn't a weak Democratic nominee. Hell. He won Indiana in 2008.

O'Malley ran in a much worse cycle for his party when he beat a former Governor by over 14 points. Beating an incumbent Governor also required political talent.

[Suburbia]

Would this matchup be another election characterized as "two stark, different visions" like the 2012 Obama-Romney campaigns?

[Never]

Pointing out Pence ran behind Romney is kind of a weak argument - the Democratic candidate was a strong one, and negative coat tails of Mourdock would certainly be stronger in a statewide race than they would be in a Presidential race.

And if we are talking about running behind, O'Malley ran as the incumbent in a very red Maryland, winning 56% of the vote, while Obama won the state in 08 and 12 with 62%. Not quite an apples to apples comparison, but O'Malley is weaker than the average Democrat.

Also, none of this takes into account actual things that would matter in an election, just previous electoral results. O'Malley is a downright terrible public speaker, coming with one of the most laughable speeches of the 2012 cycle. Pence, while not exactly exciting, is not embarassing himself in his speeches.

I can see O'Malley winning against Perry, Cruz, and MAYBE Jindal, but that's about it for talked about candidates. Pence would certainly obliterate him.

Obama wasn't a weak Democratic nominee. Hell. He won Indiana in 2008.

O'Malley ran in a much worse cycle for his party when he beat a former Governor by over 14 points. Beating an incumbent Governor also required political talent.

It's great for O'Malley that he beat Ehrlich, but we are referring to Maryland. It's one of the most Democratic states in the nation, and it is one of the only states that actually trended toward President Obama in 2012. Furthermore, O'Malley's 14-point victory in 2010 seems rather underwhelming when you consider that Obama beat Romney by 26 points two years later. Sure, 2010 was a midterm, but I would not expect a Democratic candidate who is politically strong to run 12 points behind the President. That's a massive drop-off. It's not like Democrats in the midterms dropped by double-digits nationally compared to Obama's performance.

[Bureaucat]

Pence is a far stronger candidate than O'Malley. Pence would win.

Exactly, I don't love Pence as a candidate (purely because of his strong ties to far right social conservatism), but O'Malley is a wet paper bag.

But lately the GOP has struggled beating wet paper bags.

[MATTROSE94]

I would say that Mike Pence would carry all the states that went to Mitt Romeny plus Ohio, Iowa, Florida and Colorado. That would mean that Martin O'Malley would end up winning 270-268.

[Suburbia]

If Pence can avoid looking like a arch-conservative, he could defeat O'Malley soundly. If he goes very arch-conservative, the map may be closer but right now I'll go with this.
Indiana Governor Mike Pence/South Dakota Senator John Thune-301 EV
Former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley/New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand-237 EV