Results by regions, divisions, not census
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Results by regions, divisions, not census
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Author Topic: Results by regions, divisions, not census  (Read 1062 times)
buritobr
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« on: May 01, 2014, 10:00:44 PM »

Considering that the censos regions are criticized here, let's use the regions and divisions most used in this forum

Maryland, Delaware and D.C. in the Northeast, not South
Oklahoma in the West, not South
Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota in the West, not Midwest
Missouri in the South, not Midwest

Considering also the political status in the Civil War

2012 (share of two candidate vote)
Total: Obama 52.0%, Romney 48.0%
1. Midwest: Obama 53.5%, Romney 46.5%
2. Northeast: Obama 60.2%, Romney 39.8%
2.1 New England: Obama 60.2%, Romney 39.8%
2.2 Non New England Northeast: Obama 60.2%, Romney 39.8%
3. South: Obama 45.3%, Romney 54.7%
3.1 Deep South: Obama 43.4%, Romney 56.6%
3.2 Non-deep South: Obama 45.9%, Romney 54.1%
4. West: Obama 53.3%, Romney 46.7%
4.1 Interior West: Obama 43.0%, Romney 57.0%
4.2 Pacific: Obama 60.6%, Romney 39.4%
Confederacy: Obama 45.7%, Romney 54.3%
Territory: Obama 47.4%, Romney 52.6%
Union: Obama 56.2%, Romney 43.8%

2008 (share of two candidate vote)
Total: Obama 53.7%, McCain 46.3%
1. Midwest: Obama 56.5%, McCain 43.5%
2. Northeast: Obama 60.7%, McCain 39.3%
2.1 New England: Obama 61.8%, McCain 38.2%
2.2 Non New England Northeast: Obama 60.4%, McCain 39.6%
3. South: Obama 46.8%, McCain 53.2%
3.1 Deep South: Obama 43.8%, McCain 56.2%
3.2 Non-deep South: Obama 47.8%, McCain 52.2%
4. West: Obama 55.0%, McCain 45.0%
4.1 Interior West: Obama 45.8%, McCain 54.2%
4.2 Pacific: Obama 61.2%, McCain 38.8%
Confederacy: Obama 46.9%, McCain 53.1%
Territory: Obama 49.5%, McCain 50.5%
Union: Obama 58.0%, McCain 42.0%

2004 (share of two candidate vote)
Total: Bush 51.2%, Kerry 48.8%
1. Midwest: Bush 49.6%, Kerry 50.4%
2. Northeast: Bush 43.5%, Kerry 56.5%
2.1 New England: Bush 41.4%, Kerry 58.6%
2.2 Non New England Northeast: Bush 44.2%, Kerry 55.8%
3. South: Bush 57.1%, Kerry 42.9%
3.1 Deep South: Bush 59.2%, Kerry 40.8%
3.2 Non-deep South: Bush 56.4%, Kerry 43.6%
4. West: Bush 51.5%, Kerry 48.5%
4.1 Interior West: Bush 59.9%, Kerry 40.1%
4.2 Pacific: Bush 45.8%, Kerry 54.2%
Confederacy: Bush 57.2%, Kerry 42.8%
Territory: 56.2%, Kerry 43.8%
Union: Bush 47.4%, Kerry 52.6%
Bush states (Jesusland): Bush 57.1%, Kerry 42.9%
Kerry states (United States of Canada): Bush 45.1%, Kerry 54.9%

2000 (share of three candidate vote)
Total: Bush 48.4%, Gore 48.9%, Nader 2.8%
1. Midwest: Bush 47.9%, Gore 49.5%, Nader 2.6%
2. Northeast: Bush 39.4%, Gore 57.0%, Nader 3.7%
2.1 New England: Bush 37.4%, Gore 56.9%, Nader 5.7%
2.2 Non New England Northeast: Bush 40.0%, Gore 57.0%, Nader 3.0%
3. South: Bush 54.5%, Gore 44.1%, Nader 1.4%
3.1 Deep South: Bush 56.0%, Gore 43.0%, Nader 1.0%
3.2 Non-deep South: Bush 54.0%, Gore 44.4%, Nader 1.6%
4. West: Bush 48.9%, Gore 47.3%, Nader 3.8%
4.1 Interior West: Bush 57.6%, Gore 39.2%, Nader 3.3%
4.2 Pacific: Bush 43.3%, Gore 52.5%, Nader 4.2%
Confederacy: Bush 54.7%, Gore 43.9%, Nader 1.4%
Territory: Bush 53.8%, Gore 42.5%, Nader 3.8%
Union: Bush 44.5%, Gore 52.3%, Nader 3.2%
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buritobr
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« Reply #1 on: May 03, 2014, 10:00:21 AM »

continuing

1996 (share of three candidate vote)
Total: Clinton 50.1%, Dole 41.4%, Perot 8.5%
1. Midwest: Clinton 50.4%, Dole 39.8%, Perot 9.8%
2. Northeast: Clinton 56.5%, Dole 34.5%, Perot 9.0%
2.1 New England: Clinton 58.0%, Dole 31.7%, Perot 10.3%
2.2 Non New England Northeast: Clinton 56.0%, Dole 35.5%, Perot 8.5%
3. South: Clinton 46.7%, Dole 45.8%, Perot 7.5%
3.1 Deep South: Clinton 46.6%, Dole 47.1%, Perot 6.3%
3.2 Non-deep South: Clinton 46.7%, Dole 45.4%, Perot 7.8%
4. West: Clinton 48.1%, Dole 43.4%, Perot 8.5%
4.1 Interior West: Clinton 41.7%, Dole 48.9%, Perot 9.4%
4.2 Pacific: Clinton 52.4%, Dole 39.7%, Perot 7.8%
Confederacy: Clinton 46.5%, Dole 46.4%, Perot 7.1%
Territory: Clinton 45.4%, Dole 45.3%, Perot 9.3%
Union: Clinton 52.5%, Dole 38.4%, Perot 9.1%

1992 (share of three candidate vote)
Total: Clinton 43.3%, Bush 37.7%, Perot 19.0%
1. Midwest: Clinton 43.2%, Bush 36.8%, Perot 19.9%
2. Northeast: Clinton 47.0%, Bush 34.8%, Perot 18.2%
2.1 New England: Clinton 44.7%, Bush 31.9%, Perot 23.4%
2.2 Non New England Northeast: Clinton 47.8%, Bush 35.9%, Perot 16.3%
3. South: Clinton 41.89%, Bush 41.92%, Perot 16.2%
3.1 Deep South: Clinton 42.9%, Bush 45.4%, Perot 11.7%
3.2 Non-deep South: Clinton 41.6%, Bush 40.8%, Perot 17.7%
4. West: Clinton 41.6%, Bush 35.8%, Perot 22.7%
4.1 Interior West: Clinton 35.5%, Bush 40.2%, Perot 24.4%
4.2 Pacific: Clinton 45.4%, Bush 33.0%, Perot 21.6%
Confederacy: Clinton 41.4%, Bush 42.8%, Perot 15.8%
Territory: Clinton 38.5%, Bush 38.2%, Perot 23.3%
Union: Clinton 44.9%, Bush 35.5%, Perot 19.6%
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buritobr
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« Reply #2 on: May 03, 2014, 12:37:40 PM »

continuing

1988 (share of two candidate vote)
Total: Bush 53.9%, Dukakis 46.1%
1. Midwest: Bush 52.4%, Dukakis 47.6%
2. Northeast: Bush 50.5%, Dukakis 49.5%
2.1 New England: Bush 50.1%, Dukakis 49.9%
2.2 Non New England Northeast: Bush 50.7%, Dukakis 49.3%
3. South: Bush 57.9%, Dukakis 42.1%
3.1 Deep South: Bush 59.2%, Dukakis 40.8%
3.2 Non-deep South: Bush 57.4%, Dukakis 42.6%
4. West: Bush 53.8%, Dukakis 46.2%
4.1 Interior West: Bush 58.2%, Dukakis 41.8%
4.2 Pacific: Bush 51.1%, Dukakis 48.9%
Confederacy: Bush 58.8%, Dukakis 41.2%
Territory: Bush 55.3%, Dukakis 44.7%
Union: Bush 51.7%, Dukakis 48.3%

1984 (share of two candidate vote)
Total: Reagan 59.2%, Mondale 40.8%
1. Midwest: Reagan 57.3%, Mondale 42.7%
2. Northeast: Reagan 55.1%, Mondale 44.9%
2.1 New England: Reagan 56.4%, Mondale 43.6%
2.2 Non New England Northeast: Reagan 54.6%, Mondale 45.4%
3. South: Reagan 62.1%, Mondale 37.9%
3.1 Deep South: Reagan 61.6%, Mondale 38.4%
3.2 Non-deep South: Reagan 62.3%, Mondale 37.7%
4. West: Reagan 61.6%, Mondale 38.4%
4.1 Interior West: Reagan 67.4%, Mondale 32.6%
4.2 Pacific: Reagan 57.9%, Mondale 42.1%
Confederacy: Reagan 62.6%, Mondale 37.4%
Territory: Reagan 63.8%, Mondale 36.2%
Union: Reagan 57.1%, Mondale 42.9%
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buritobr
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« Reply #3 on: May 03, 2014, 02:39:42 PM »

1980 (share of three candidate vote)
Total: Reagan 51.6%, Carter 41.7%, Anderson 6.7%
1. Midwest: Reagan 50.6%, Carter 42.4%, Anderson 7.0%
2. Northeast: Reagan 47.8%, Carter 43.1%, Anderson 9.1%
2.1 New England: Reagan 45.3%, Carter 40.9%, Anderson 13.9%
2.2 Non New England Northeast: Reagan 48.7%, Carter 43.9%, Anderson 7.4%
3. South: Reagan 51.6%, Carter 45.3%, Anderson 3.1%
3.1 Deep South: Reagan 48.3%, Carter 50.0%, Anderson 1.7%
3.2 Non-deep South: Reagan 52.8%, Carter 43.7%, Anderson 3.5%
4. West: Reagan 56.7%, Carter 34.9%, Anderson 8.5%
4.1 Interior West: Reagan 62.1%, Carter 30.7%, Anderson 7.2%
4.2 Pacific: Reagan 53.1%, Carter 37.6%, Anderson 9.3%
Confederacy: Reagan 52.0%, Carter 45.0%, Anderson 3.0%
Territory: Reagan 58.6%, Carter 33.3%, Anderson 8.1%
Union: Reagan 50.4%, Carter 41.8%, Anderson 7.9%

1976 (share of two candidate vote)
Total: Carter 51.1%, Ford 48.9%
1. Midwest: Carter 49.6%, Ford 50.4%
2. Northeast: Carter 52.1%, Ford 47.9%
2.1 New England: Carter 53.0%, Ford 47.0%
2.2 Non New England Northeast: Carter 51.8%, Ford 48.2%
3. South: Carter 54.6%, Ford 45.4%
3.1 Deep South: Carter 57.8%, Ford 42.2%
3.2 Non-deep South: Carter 53.5%, Ford 46.5%
4. West: Carter 47.1%, Ford 52.9%
4.1 Interior West: Carter 44.3%, Ford 55.7%
4.2 Pacific: Carter 48.9%, Ford 51.1%
Confederacy: Carter 54.8%, Ford 45.2%
Territory: Carter 45.7%, Ford 54.3%
Union: Carter 50.6%, Ford 49.4%
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buritobr
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« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2014, 04:13:32 PM »

1972 (share of two candidate vote)
Total: Nixon 61.8%, McGovern 38.2%
1. Midwest: Nixon 59.1%, McGovern 40.9%
2. Northeast: Nixon 58.1%, McGovern 41.9%
2.1 New England: Nixon 52.9%, McGovern 47.1%
2.2 Non New England Northeast: Nixon 59.7%, McGovern 40.3%
3. South: Nixon 69.2%, McGovern 30.8%
3.1 Deep South: Nixon 73.9%, McGovern 26.1%
3.2 Non-deep South: Nixon 67.7%, McGovern 32.3%
4. West: Nixon 61.2%, McGovern 38.8%
4.1 Interior West: Nixon 67.8%, McGovern 32.2%
4.2 Pacific: Nixon 57.4%, McGovern 42.6%
Confederacy: Nixon 70.6%, McGovern 29.4%
Territory: Nixon 64.7%, McGovern 35.3%
Union: Nixon 58.9%, McGovern 41.1%

1968 (share of three candidate vote)
Total: Nixon 43.6%, Humphrey 42.9%, Wallace 13.6%
1. Midwest: Nixon 46.1%, Humphrey 44.7%, Wallace 9.2%
2. Northeast: Nixon 43.0%, Humphrey 50.2%, Wallace 6.8%
2.1 New England: Nixon 38.5%, Humphrey 57.3%, Wallace 4.2%
2.2 Non New England Northeast: Nixon 44.3%, Humphrey 48.1%, Wallace 7.6%
3. South: Nixon 36.5%, Humphrey 33.4%, Wallace 30.2%
3.1 Deep South: Nixon 24.0%, Humphrey 25.3%, Wallace 50.8%
3.2 Non-deep South: Nixon 40.7%, Humphrey 36.2%, Wallace 23.1%
4. West: Nixon 49.8%, Humphrey 42.1%, Wallace 8.1%
4.1 Interior West: Nixon 53.3%, Humphrey 36.3%, Wallace 10.4%
4.2 Pacific: Nixon 47.7%, Humphrey 45.6%, Wallace 6.7%
Confederacy: Nixon 34.7%, Humphrey 31.0%, Wallace 34.4%
Territory: Nixon 50.0%, Humphrey 40.7%, Wallace 9.2%
Union: Nixon 45.3%, Humphrey 46.5%, Wallace 8.2%
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buritobr
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« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2014, 04:09:31 PM »

1964 (share of two candidate vote)
Total: Johnson 61.3%, Goldwater 38.7%
1. Midwest: Johnson 61.9%, Goldwater 38.1%
2. Northeast: Johnson 68.4%, Goldwater 31.6%
2.1 New England: Johnson 72.9%, Goldwater 27.1%
2.2 Non New England Northeast: Johnson 67.1%, Goldwater 32.9%
3. South: Johnson 53.8%, Goldwater 46.2%
3.1 Deep South: Johnson 34.2%, Goldwater 65.8%
3.2 Non-deep South: Johnson 59.3%, Goldwater 40.7%
4. West: Johnson 58.7%, Goldwater 41.3%
4.1 Interior West: Johnson 55.8%, Goldwater 44.2%
4.2 Pacific: Johnson 60.5%, Goldwater 39.5%
Confederacy: Johnson 50.4%, Goldwater 49.6%
Territory: Johnson 58.9%, Goldwater 41.1%
Union: Johnson 64.2%, Goldwater 35.8%

1960 (share of two candidate vote)
Total: Kennedy 50.1%, Nixon 49.9%
1. Midwest: Kennedy 48.3%, Nixon 51.7%
2. Northeast: Kennedy 52.8%, Nixon 47.2%
2.1 New England: Kennedy 56.1%, Nixon 43.9%
2.2 Non New England Northeast: Kennedy 51.8%, Nixon 48.2%
3. South: Kennedy 51.6%, Nixon 48.4%
3.1 Deep South: Kennedy 59.7%, Nixon 40.3%
3.2 Non-deep South: Kennedy 49.8%, Nixon 50.2%
4. West: Kennedy 46.9%, Nixon 53.1%
4.1 Interior West: Kennedy 43.1%, Nixon 56.9%
4.2 Pacific: Kennedy 49.4%, Nixon 50.6%
Confederacy: Kennedy 52.3%, Nixon 47.7%
Territory: Kennedy 45.0%, Nixon 55.0%
Union: Kennedy 50.3%, Nixon 49.7%

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buritobr
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« Reply #6 on: May 04, 2014, 04:29:35 PM »

Trends of the regions. How the vote in each region differs to the national vote.

Positive: more Democratic than national vote
Negative: more Republican than national vote

= (Dvoteregion - Rvoteregion) - (Dvotenational - Rvotenational)

Midwest
1960: -3.5
1964: 1.2
1968: -0.8
1972: 5.4
1976: -3.0
1980: 1.7
1984: 3.8
1988: 3.1
1992: 0.8
1996: 1.9
2000: 1.0
2004: 3.2
2008: 5.5
2012: 3.0

Northeast
1960: 5.5
1964: 14.1
1968: 7.9
1972: 7.4
1976: 2.0
1980: 5.2
1984: 8.2
1988: 6.8
1992: 6.6
1996: 13.3
2000: 17.1
2004: 15.4
2008: 14.1
2012: 16.4

South
1960: 3.0
1964: -15.1
1968: -2.4
1972: -14.8
1976: 7.0
1980: 3.5
1984: -5.9
1988: -7.9
1992: -5.6
1996: -7.8
2000: -11.0
2004: -11.7
2008: -13.8
2012: -13.4

West
1960: -6.3
1964: -5.3
1968: -7.0
1972: 1.1
1976: -7.9
1980: -11.9
1984: -4.8
1988: 0.2
1992: 0.2
1996: -4.0
2000: -2.1
2004: -0.5
2008: 2.5
2012: 2.7
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Goldwater
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« Reply #7 on: May 04, 2014, 04:52:33 PM »

I've never considered the Great Plains states to be part of the West, but maybe that's because I've lived west of the Great Pains my whole life. Tongue
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