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  NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC)
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Author Topic: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC)  (Read 4598 times)
DrScholl
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« on: April 23, 2014, 08:27:24 am »

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/04/23/upshot/24upshot-south-poll.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0#

AR Sen
Pryor: 46
Cotton: 36

KY Sen
McConnell 44
ALG 43

(McConnell at 40/51 approve/disapprove, Beshear at 56/29)

LA Sen
Landrieu 42
Cassidy 18

(Jungle poll)

(Landrieu's at 49/45 approve/disapprove.)

NC Sen
Hagan 42
Tillis 40

Hagan 41
Brannon 39

(Hagan at 44/44 approval.)

Glorious news!
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #1 on: April 23, 2014, 08:35:24 am »

Too bad for Cotton, if there is no AR, there is no GOP takeover. I do believe that ALG will win.
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Potatoe
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« Reply #2 on: April 23, 2014, 08:36:55 am »

Shame that Grimes is down 1, but hopefully we can overcome McConnell.
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bballrox4717
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« Reply #3 on: April 23, 2014, 08:43:38 am »

I am so confused by Pryor and Landrieu's leads but so happy nevertheless.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: April 23, 2014, 08:51:03 am »

What happened in Arkansas?

Excellent News!
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #5 on: April 23, 2014, 08:52:22 am »
« Edited: April 23, 2014, 08:54:33 am by Midwest Governor windjammer »

What happened in Arkansas?

Excellent News!
You support Pryor? Glad to see it!
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: April 23, 2014, 08:53:50 am »

The polls were done by Kaiser Family Foundation.

I know that they are usually polling healthcare-related stuff.

Have they ever polled political races before ?

If not, I would be somewhat sceptical of these results.

NC and KY are certainly in line with other polls, AR maybe a bit too high for Pryor (but he has definitely improved).

Cassidy seems to be too low in LA, but why didn't they poll the run-off (unlikely that Landrieu gets 50+ in the 1st round) ?
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ModerateVAVoter
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« Reply #7 on: April 23, 2014, 09:10:05 am »

Okay two things being speculated on twitter:
1) Kaiser apparently has done polling on ACA before, and generally has slightly more positive numbers for ACA than most.
2) There are questions whether this sample polled all adults, even those who aren't registered to vote, which could explain the fishy presidential vote sample.

At this point, Landrieu's number in LA seems okay, KY seems about right, NC seems in like with what we've been seeing. I think Pryor is up by 3ish in Arkansas, but 10 is hard for me to believe.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: April 23, 2014, 09:16:17 am »

2) There are questions whether this sample polled all adults, even those who aren't registered to vote, which could explain the fishy presidential vote sample.

They polled all adults in the states, but for the election questions they only polled RV.

The "presidential vote" question is of all adults, that's why it includes a high share of "I didn't vote/can't remember".

You need to remember that voter turnout in KY, AR and LA was very low, therefore more than 1/3 who say they didn't vote ...
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DrScholl
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« Reply #9 on: April 23, 2014, 09:18:32 am »

This is the second poll to have Pryor up big, so something is happening in that race that is shifting it back toward Pryor's direction. That much is evident.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #10 on: April 23, 2014, 10:12:07 am »

This is the second poll to have Pryor up big, so something is happening in that race that is shifting it back toward Pryor's direction. That much is evident.

I think it's because people think Cotton is just too extreme. The idea that he's a Tea Party guy is actually sinking in.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #11 on: April 23, 2014, 10:14:58 am »

This is the second poll to have Pryor up big, so something is happening in that race that is shifting it back toward Pryor's direction. That much is evident.

I think it's because people think Cotton is just too extreme. The idea that he's a Tea Party guy is actually sinking in.
Because Cotton has crazy views after all.
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Kevin
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« Reply #12 on: April 23, 2014, 10:37:30 am »

Okay two things being speculated on twitter:
1) Kaiser apparently has done polling on ACA before, and generally has slightly more positive numbers for ACA than most.
2) There are questions whether this sample polled all adults, even those who aren't registered to vote, which could explain the fishy presidential vote sample.

At this point, Landrieu's number in LA seems okay, KY seems about right, NC seems in like with what we've been seeing. I think Pryor is up by 3ish in Arkansas, but 10 is hard for me to believe.

Given that there is over 7 months left in this race these are still bad numbers for any to be at since all them are well below 50% and have mediocre approvals overall.

I actually take these numbers as esp concerning for the Democrats given the larger picture mixed in with their current numbers. As all of the incumbent Senators polled in this survey are from Southern states where Obama and his party are both deeply unpopular.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #13 on: April 23, 2014, 10:48:35 am »

Dominating. The Democrats will sweep the South.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #14 on: April 23, 2014, 10:57:05 am »


It's not about supporting Pryor, it's about making those 6 seats that little-bit harder for the GOP.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #15 on: April 23, 2014, 11:01:53 am »


It's not about supporting Pryor, it's about making those 6 seats that little-bit harder for the GOP.
So supporting Pryor Tongue
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Gass3268
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« Reply #16 on: April 23, 2014, 12:08:12 pm »


It's not about supporting Pryor, it's about making those 6 seats that little-bit harder for the GOP.
So supporting Pryor Tongue

I mean, if we could primary Pryor, get someone more to the left and still win the seat, I would be all in favor of that. We all know that's not possible. Even though Pryor is one of my least favorite Democrats, he's still better than Cotton and any other Republican in the Senate. That's pretty much by reasoning.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #17 on: April 23, 2014, 12:23:36 pm »

These polls suck a lot, at least arkansas.  Pryor ahead by 10, that is funny.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #18 on: April 23, 2014, 12:24:47 pm »

These polls suck a lot, at least arkansas.  Pryor ahead by 10, that is funny.

Jerry, have you seen far more Dem than GOP ads?
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #19 on: April 23, 2014, 12:37:10 pm »

No, they are about the same.  I have however seen no positive democratic ads while I have seen several positive Republican ads.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #20 on: April 23, 2014, 12:51:27 pm »

Despite being one of the few who always called AR a toss up unlike many who hopped on the bandwagon of "Pryor will meet the same fate as Blanche Lincoln blah blah", I'm still surprised by how well he's doing in recent polls. Exactly what has changed in the past month that is responsible for this?

Also, I wonder why they didn't poll the runoff in LA.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #21 on: April 23, 2014, 01:45:20 pm »

Also, I wonder why they didn't poll the runoff in LA.

Perhaps their client didn't like the results?
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #22 on: April 23, 2014, 01:46:33 pm »

Perhaps their client didn't like the results?

Nah, the New York Times isn't that right-wing, compared to the rest of the media.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #23 on: April 23, 2014, 02:06:48 pm »

Perhaps their client didn't like the results?

Nah, the New York Times isn't that right-wing, compared to the rest of the media.

I was referring to Kaiser, who would have an incentive to show good numbers for candidates in favor of the individual mandate. Regardless of one's opinions of the New York Times, I think the last few election cycles show public polls to be fairly reputable.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #24 on: April 23, 2014, 04:18:03 pm »

This looks pretty awful. How is Cassidy only getting 18%? Even in the jungle primary, and how is Pryor up 10 on Cotton when McConnell is up 1 on Grimes? This is inconsistent with everything we've seen so far. Although NC and KY polls look OK.
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