Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[Hatman 🍁]

Hudak is winning so far, but Horwath is holding her own. Kathleen Wynne is doing terrible.

[RogueBeaver]

Agreed. Somehow she's windmilling more than Dithers.

[Hash]

How on earth is Hudak winning? He's basically reciting his same old platitudes, like a tape recorder. Although, I suppose, with his fake smile and lies, the average moron voter will love it. Ugh.

[RogueBeaver]

Who do you think's winning Hash? Anyways, I don't think anyone moved the needle.

[Hatman 🍁]

How on earth is Hudak winning? He's basically reciting his same old platitudes, like a tape recorder. Although, I suppose, with his fake smile and lies, the average moron voter will love it. Ugh.

Try watching the debate without bias, maybe? Obviously what is coming out of his mouth is BS, but that's not the point.

[Hatman 🍁]

Though, Hudak's face is melting Nixon-style.

[Hash]

Who do you think's winning Hash? Anyways, I don't think anyone moved the needle.

All fairly mediocre. Wynne is doing well but she's taking heavy fire and isn't excellent at fighting, also comes off as angry (if I was in her spot, I'd be angry too, but); Horwath is decent but fairly wooden; Hudak is reciting platitudes in every question.

How on earth is Hudak winning? He's basically reciting his same old platitudes, like a tape recorder. Although, I suppose, with his fake smile and lies, the average moron voter will love it. Ugh.

Try watching the debate without bias, maybe? Obviously what is coming out of his mouth is BS, but that's not the point.

Everyone has a bias, so let's not pretend otherwise. I hate and fear Hudak with a passion, so it's admittedly hard for me to judge him more objectively, but I'm not an idiot, so I realize that his message might work for some voters.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Horwath stumbled through those closing remarks pretty hard.

[Hatman 🍁]

Who do you think's winning Hash? Anyways, I don't think anyone moved the needle.

All fairly mediocre. Wynne is doing well but she's taking heavy fire and isn't excellent at fighting, also comes off as angry (if I was in her spot, I'd be angry too, but); Horwath is decent but fairly wooden; Hudak is reciting platitudes in every question.

How on earth is Hudak winning? He's basically reciting his same old platitudes, like a tape recorder. Although, I suppose, with his fake smile and lies, the average moron voter will love it. Ugh.

Try watching the debate without bias, maybe? Obviously what is coming out of his mouth is BS, but that's not the point.

Everyone has a bias, so let's not pretend otherwise. I hate and fear Hudak with a passion, so it's admittedly hard for me to judge him more objectively, but I'm not an idiot, so I realize that his message might work for some voters.

True- but when it comes to debates, I try my best to remove my personal biases as much as possible, and judge the leaders more on their style than on their substance.

[RogueBeaver]

I think we can all agree that the stylistic loser was Wynne, based on hand movement alone.

[RogueBeaver]

Ipsos debate panel on who won: 36% Hudak, 30% Wynne, 26% Horwath.

[Sol]

How does Collingwood vote?

[DC Al Fine]

How does Collingwood vote?

Tory, but not as much as the riding at large.

[Sol]

How does Collingwood vote?

Tory, but not as much as the riding at large.

OK. It's my hometown's sister city.

[RogueBeaver]

Pundits are as mixed as the polls. Radwanski thinks that ethics segment might hurt given its prominence, Kinsella and Den Tandt think Hudak won, Star says Wynne was on defensive, everyone had slips.

[Hatman 🍁]

How does Collingwood vote?

Tory, but not as much as the riding at large.

OK. It's my hometown's sister city.

It's the most Liberal-friendly part of the district, but still went Tory in 2011, as did most of the riding.

[DL]

According to Ipsos Horwath was the big winner in terms of changing peoples opinion of her

"While Hudak may have won the debate, it was Andrea Horwath who made the biggest impression on viewers as 54% say they have an improved impression of her as a result of the debate, while just 15% say their impressions worsened, representing a net score of +39. By comparison, in 2011, Horwath’s net impact was +57, but it only provided a slight bounce to the NDP’s popular support following the debate.

Four in ten (40%) have an improved impression of Tim Hudak, compared to one in three (34%) who have a worsened impression, representing a net score of +6. But the loser is Premier Kathleen Wynne: only 24% say their impression of her improved as a result of the debate, while 43% had a worsening opinion of her, representing a net score of -19."

Very few people actually watch the whole debate - that's why what happens in the first 15-20 minutes is by far the most important. No one is talking about Horwath final comments - all the media are of her saying to Wynne "you had a choice, you could have said NO" with regard to the gas plants. What will really damage Wynne will be the next few dauys of endless replays of her being raked over the coals over the gas plant corruption.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I didn't watch. I already voted (I'm graduating on the 12th) and I didn't need to see the political theatre to know that Tim Hudak's a stupid hack. Sounds like it wasn't a very good night for the Liberals, though.

[lilTommy]

Merely watching the debate my take is:
Wynne - C score - She was terrible, i mean a train wreck would have been better to watch, I was so awkward for her during her first opening statement and debate. But she improved, she got more comfortable and landed a number of solid hits mostly against Hudak who didn't really have much of a comeback for them. But I've seen Wynne perform better, I was shocked at how overall poor she did. If you were a Liberals you should have just tunned in at about 7-715, before that was a disaster.
Hudak - C score - trying to be impartial but I detest the mans politics, but he came across more personable but still not the most likable, he made a number of condescending comments AND hilariously ironic ones (I have a love of math!) He made some good points and tried to against Wynne who was the real target, but got socked by Andrea (voted 97% with Liberals you should own half the mistakes... math again ) but she blasted him with "In the past three years you've accomplished nothing" (paraphrasing). He was not quick on the draw and had no answer for his bad math plan. But no big mistakes really just creepy as usual
Horwath - B score - my best attempt at being impartial. She actually performed the best within the debates, she was eager(or call it aggressive) she was definitely coached on comebacks, I felt no one got a good jab at her, she was quick to be fiery back, especially with Wynne who often was looking very frustrated. She was also the funniest and had the best one-liners, mostly against Hudak, but was very much about "you have another option but these two, etc" But she was weak when it was the statements part which is odd since to me that would be the easiest, perhaps that's not her comfort zone, the closing statement was mangled and went in circles almost as bad as Wynne's opening. Dippers should have changed the channel before the closing statements really.
No clear winner, I'd say an overall tie with Horwath-Hudak but Wynne lost an opportunity to make this a two horse race, Horwath was too much for her in this debate. I think each party can take a win out of the debates though

[Krago]

Did anyone see this?  Un-effing-believable.

http://m.thestar.com/#!/news/tim-hudak-won-debate-but-may-not-win-election-poll-says/25cab8b203b8a6833569b737202b7a8a

Why, it's almost as if that poll was tailor-made to suit the needs of the Toronto Star and the Ontario Liberal war room.

[DL]

Ipsos debate panel on who won: 36% Hudak, 30% Wynne, 26% Horwath.

Those were interim numbers. The final numbers were Hudak 36%, Wynne 27%, Horwath 26%

[Hash]

Peoples: Stop reading newspaper editorials and comment pieces. Your life will be so much better and just as fulfilling.

[RogueBeaver]

Wynne: if Hudak wins the most seats I'll let him govern. Shades of Martin/Harper '04. Previously there'd been an internal debate about flexibility depending on how large said hypothetical PC plurality is.

[Hatman 🍁]

Week #5 projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/06/2014-ontario-election-projection-week-5.html

[Krago]

New EKOS daily tracking poll shows some NDP recovery, and unlikely levels of support for Greens and Others (as usual)

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/category/provincial-results/

Lib 36.4% (down 1.2% from 2011 general election)
PC 31.0% (down 4.4%)
NDP 19.3% (down 3.4%)
Green 8.4% (up 5.5%)
Others 4.9% (up 3.7%)