Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[Hatman 🍁]

Just like Ipsos, they use an opt-in online panel. Just like Ipsos, Abacus' polling shows something different than everyone else.

Weird though, Abacus has used IVR and other methods in the past.

[RogueBeaver]

Hudak declines northern debate.

[Holmes]

A three-way race is much more fun than the Libs and Tories going back and forth in the polls.

[Hatman 🍁]

A three-way race is much more fun than the Libs and Tories going back and forth in the polls.

Indeed. So far the race is shaping up to be a repeat of the last election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sid Ryan is releasing some more EKOS internals:



The "original assessment" was actually the one I provided to them

[MaxQue]

Sid Ryan is releasing some more EKOS internals:



The "original assessment" was actually the one I provided to them

Well, technically, if he paid for them, aren't those his internals?

[Hatman 🍁]

Sid Ryan is releasing some more EKOS internals:



The "original assessment" was actually the one I provided to them

Well, technically, if he paid for them, aren't those his internals?

Yes, yes. Same difference

[Hatman 🍁]

Another Sid Ryan leak:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Very misleading tweet, those numbers are similar to the by-election.

[RogueBeaver]

Itineraries.

Kinsella's take on the campaign thus far.

[Hatman 🍁]

Seat projection summary from all the major seat projectors: ( ) http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/ontario-seat-projections/ (also includes Forum Research though)

[Hatman 🍁]

Factoring in the Abacus poll:

[RogueBeaver]

Contrasts on industrial policy and ads.

Adjustment to new GOTV realities.

[Hash]

The PC platform is truly frightening stuff for a half-public servant/half-liberal arts student like me. They basically want us to go die.

[MaxQue]

The PC platform is truly frightening stuff for a half-public servant/half-liberal arts student like me. They basically want us to go die.

Well, it's modern conservatism. Taking money from everyone to give it to their donators.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

T. Dan Smith pointed out that he was jailed for less.

[RogueBeaver]

NDP platform out tomorrow.

[Hatman 🍁]

Any commentary about the NDP's bold "false front-wrap" on today's Toronto Sun?



Interesting strategy, but it continues the NDP framing itself with populist rhetoric.

[adma]

Re Etobicoke-Lakeshore--on reflection, it seems like Holyday ran more as a favour than as a commitment, so if he's running behind, well...he's in his 70s, after all.  (Then again, if he loses, he could return to municipal politics and win handily in his former ward)

[RogueBeaver]

New Star narrative: Horwath screwed certain unions WHILE STILL BEING RESPONSIBLE FOR A POTENTIAL HUDAPOCALYPSE.

[Citizen Hats]

Any commentary about the NDP's bold "false front-wrap" on today's Toronto Sun?



Interesting strategy, but it continues the NDP framing itself with populist rhetoric.

Is it unfair of me for thinking yet more negatively of the NDP for patronizing that rag with their business?

[Hatman 🍁]

Any commentary about the NDP's bold "false front-wrap" on today's Toronto Sun?



Interesting strategy, but it continues the NDP framing itself with populist rhetoric.

Is it unfair of me for thinking yet more negatively of the NDP for patronizing that rag with their business?

As we've discussed in this thread, there's very few NDP-friendly papers, especially in Ontario. The Toronto Start for one has been way more critical of the NDP than the Sun.

My beef is that ads like these are deceitful, but she's taken a page out of Christy Clark's play book, so maybe it will work? It's quite ballsy for sure. Don't count me as one of those people upset with the populist rhetoric, so I'm liking how the campaign is going, even if it's stagnant at the moment.

[RogueBeaver]

Geographic focus.

Forum: 41/34/21 OLP.

[lilTommy]

Any commentary about the NDP's bold "false front-wrap" on today's Toronto Sun?



Interesting strategy, but it continues the NDP framing itself with populist rhetoric.

Is it unfair of me for thinking yet more negatively of the NDP for patronizing that rag with their business?

As we've discussed in this thread, there's very few NDP-friendly papers, especially in Ontario. The Toronto Start for one has been way more critical of the NDP than the Sun.

My beef is that ads like these are deceitful, but she's taken a page out of Christy Clark's play book, so maybe it will work? It's quite ballsy for sure. Don't count me as one of those people upset with the populist rhetoric, so I'm liking how the campaign is going, even if it's stagnant at the moment.

The NDP was using False fronts during the by-elections too in the Metro's I believe for Niagara Falls and London West no?. It's a concentrated effort to win over Voters in particular regions (like the North and SW) as well as those who are the more working-class kitchen-table kind of voters (again those more working class industrial/resources dominated areas) who are indeed motivated by pocket book issues like Hydro and Insurance, also explains some of the NDPs focus on tax credits (Jobs, investments and now at-home care) who are not particularly tied to any party.

This was on the Sun, but EVERYONE is covering it, the CBC, The Star all have articles about it, while the other parties haven't got much coverage of their media campaigns (other then the ads). The worry (still) is that their progressive base (mostly in the cities) will stay home or worse, vote Liberal. The platform is released today, I'm sure hoping it has something for us (the more big idea progressives)
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-votes-2014/ndp-sun-wrap-ad-targets-conservative-voters-1.2649842

[Hatman 🍁]

Any NDPer who isn't voting NDP this time isn't a real NDPer anyway. I know, know, no true Scotsman...

[Krago]

I read the new Forum poll in today's Toronto Star.  It shows the Liberal lead over the PCs widening from three points (38%-35%) to seven (41%-34%), yet somehow, the projected lead in seats has shrunk from 42 (68-26) to 32 (63-31).  These guys must have PhDs because I can't figure it out!