Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[jaichind]

See

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-13/blackrock-on-high-alert-for-ontario-downgrade-after-vote.html

The new Ontario is likely to issue more debt to finance its budget, the yields are rising in anticipation and credit downgrades are likely.

[King of Kensington]

All the Chinese dominated ridings swung Tory this time. I fear it had to do with Wynne's sexuality. Might also explain some of the swing to the NDP (of all parties!) in Southwestern Ontario, as we know that region is more socially conservative than one might expect from its voting patterns. Generally though, Wynne's sexuality obviously didn't have a huge effect on the outcome, and maybe even helped her win in Downtown Toronto and in the 905 (and even in Ottawa). This is good news, because just 4 years ago, we saw a gay candidate lose to Rob Ford of all people in Toronto, and 4 years before that we say a gay candidate lose in Ottawa to another bumbling conservative for mayor. (Not many people are aware of our current mayor's sexuality)

A bit of a British Columbia-ization going on - i.e. Chinese voting for the "free enterprise party", Sikhs going NDP?

[DL]

Let's put things in persp[ective - while the PCs may have gained a tinty bit of ground, the most heavily Chjinese ridings in ontario - Scarborough-Agincourt, Markham-Unionville, Richmond Hill, Trinity-Spadina - all went Liberal by very large margins - we have a long wau to go before you can say that the Chinese in ontario are a Conservative voting group

[King of Kensington]

True, let's not overstate this.  The only ethno-cultural group the PCs likely received a plurality of votes from was white Protestants.  

[DL]

True, let's not overstate this.  The only ethno-cultural group the PCs likely received a plurality of votes from was white Protestants.  

Maybe white male Protestants, if you count women they may not have even carried WASPs

[DC Al Fine]

True, let's not overstate this.  The only ethno-cultural group the PCs likely received a plurality of votes from was white Protestants.  

Maybe white male Protestants, if you count women they may not have even carried WASPs

Here's the 2011 results.



Granted, the Tories did much worse in Ontario in 2014 than they did in 2011, but they won Protestants so overwhelmingly that I think it's pretty safe to say that they still won white Protestant women.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's obvious the Tories won the orthodox Jewish vote.

[lilTommy]

Its interesting that the NDP seems to have supplanted the Liberals as the option of choice for most Visible Minorities... albeit more recent immigrants, while the Tories dominated the Immigrants who have been here longer.
I'm surprised the NDP did that well with Catholics, must be the Quebec vote? seeing that the NDP dominated with the Non-Religious, seems a weird juxtaposition

[Hatman 🍁]

Its interesting that the NDP seems to have supplanted the Liberals as the option of choice for most Visible Minorities... albeit more recent immigrants, while the Tories dominated the Immigrants who have been here longer.
I'm surprised the NDP did that well with Catholics, must be the Quebec vote? seeing that the NDP dominated with the Non-Religious, seems a weird juxtaposition

2011 was a different animal. It helped that the Tories won a lot of the would-be Liberal minority vote.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm surprised the NDP did that well with Catholics, must be the Quebec vote? seeing that the NDP dominated with the Non-Religious, seems a weird juxtaposition

Yeah it's the Quebec vote. Most secular Quebecois still self-identify as Catholic. RB & I estimated a while back that the Tories won a decent sized plurality of English speaking Catholics

[King of Kensington]

These are federal results.  The PCs under Hudak did worse in 2014 but they didn't do well among ethnic communities in 2011 either.  Their base, then and now, is small-town and rural Ontario. The Liberals continue to dominate ethnic communities provincially.

I agree Catholics outside Quebec voted mostly for the federal Conservatives last time.

[King of Kensington]

It's obvious the Tories won the orthodox Jewish vote.

Yup.  A small group but very concentrated and enough to deliver one riding to the PCs. 

[adma]

Let's put things in persp[ective - while the PCs may have gained a tinty bit of ground, the most heavily Chjinese ridings in ontario - Scarborough-Agincourt, Markham-Unionville, Richmond Hill, Trinity-Spadina - all went Liberal by very large margins - we have a long wau to go before you can say that the Chinese in ontario are a Conservative voting group

If there *were* any potential tipping point, it'd be the fed byelection in Scarb-Agincourt, of course.  (*If.*)

[King of Kensington]

The federal Conservatives are hoping to gain ground by appealing to social conservatism and reminding voters what Karygiannis said about Trudeau's leadership:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/06/18/tory_attack_flyer_in_toronto_byelection_quotes_longtime_liberal_mp.html

[King of Kensington]

Re: "urban progressives" - we can distinguish, perhaps, within the professional class, between more center-right business and financial professionals and managers and more progressive academic/educational professionals and people in arts and culture.

The 2011 NHS only includes the very broad categories for occupation and not all a majority are professional: for instance, Business, Finance and Administration includes not only accountants and stockbrokers but also secretaries and clerical workers.  Meanwhile, Social Science, Education, Government Service and Religion is majority-professional but includes lawyers, social workers, social scientists, teachers and professors.

More detailed occupational data is available for 2006, which I got for the riding level.  One point about geographic concentration: generally clerical workers, technicians and nurses are the least concentrated, sales and service a little more so, manufacturing and trades more so, and professionals the most (in the core and in well-to-do suburbs).   So I include all professionals except nurses, as well as those in art and culture "technical" occupations like camera operators and photographers, given their geographic concentration in the core.  I include senior managers and specialist managers but not all managers because that category includes shopkeepers, cafeteria managers, etc. who don't have high levels of educational attainment overall.

So here's Trinity-Spadina, Davenport, Parkdale-High Park, Danforth and Beaches-East York.  I also create two categories of my own "business professional" (including senior and specialist managers) and "academic/creative professional" (teachers and professors + art and culture occupations - BTW is this the kind of work Richard Florida gets the big bucks for?).  Other professional groups such as law and government service, health and science and engineering I suppose fall into a "neutral" category.

TRINITY-SPADINA  (out of 74,600 employed)

A0 Senior managers  1,395  1.9%
A1 Specialist managers  3,435  4.6%
B0  Professionals in business and finance  4,575  6.1%

Total business professional  9,405  12.6%

E1  Teachers and professors  4,885  6.5%
F  Art and culture  8,890  11.9%

Total academic/creative professional  13,775  18.5%
Ratio  9405/13775  0.68

C0  Natural science  5,170  6.9%
D0  Health  1,955  2.6%
E0  Law, social service and government  4,325  5.8%

DAVENPORT (58,835)

A0  Senior managers  390  0.7%
A1  Specialist managers  1,125  0.9%
B0  Business and finance  1,030  1.8%

Total business professional 2,545  4.3%

E1  Teachers and professors  2,130  3.6%
F  Art and culture  4,105  7.0%

Total academic/creative professional  6,235  10.6%
Ratio  2545/6235  0.41

C0  Natural science  1,720  2.9%
D0  Health  220  0.4%
E0  Law, social service and government  1,380  2.3%

PARKDALE-HIGH PARK (58,950)

A0  Senior managers  1,050  1.8%
A1  Specialist managers  2,585  4.4%
B0  Business and finance  2,260  3.8%

Total business professional  5,895  10%

E1  Teachers and professors  3,870  6.6%
F  Art and culture  6,180  10.5%

Total academic/creative professional  10,050  17%
Ratio  5895/10050  0.59

C0  Natural science  3,555  6.0%
D0  Health  925  1.6%
E1  Law, social service, government  2,805  4.8%

TORONTO-DANFORTH (59,135)

A0  Senior managers  895  1.5%
A1  Specialist managers  2,185  3.7%
B0  Business and finance  2,240  3.8%

Total business professional  5,320  9%

E1  Teachers and professors  3,105  5.3%
F  Art and culture  6,070  10.3%

Total academic/creative professional  9,175  15.5%
Ratio  5320/9175  0.58

C0  Natural science  2,870  4.9%
D0  Health  610  1%
E0  Law, social service, government  2,550  4.3%

BEACHES-EAST YORK (58,710)

A0  Senior managers  910  1.5%
A1  Specialist managers  2,395  4.1%
B0  Business and finance  2,210  3.8%

Total business professional  5,515  9.4%

E1  Teachers and professors  2,730  4.6%
F  Art and culture  5,000  8.5%

Total academic/creative professional  7,730  13.2%
Ratio  5515/7730  0.71

C0  Natural science  3,170  5.4%
D0  Health  625  1.1%
E1  Law, social service, government  2,250  3.8%

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Re: "urban progressives" - we can distinguish, perhaps, within the professional class, between more center-right business and financial professionals and managers and more progressive academic/educational professionals and people in arts and culture.

The 2011 NHS only includes the very broad categories for occupation and not all a majority are professional: for instance, Business, Finance and Administration includes not only accountants and stockbrokers but also secretaries and clerical workers.  Meanwhile, Social Science, Education, Government Service and Religion is majority-professional but includes lawyers, social workers, social scientists, teachers and professors.

This is terrible news for Ed Miliband.

[Krago]

The unofficial poll-by-poll results were released today on the Elections Ontario website.

http://wemakevotingeasy.ca/en/general-election-results.aspx

Here's the first poll map:

[Krago]

A personal favourite, Windsor West:

[Smid]

Great work, Krago!

[adma]

The unofficial poll-by-poll results were released today on the Elections Ontario website.

http://wemakevotingeasy.ca/en/general-election-results.aspx

Here's the first poll map:

Interesting how (a) the affluent parts of Etobicoke Centre seem even *more* PC-leaning than last time (yet the Ford family homestead poll looks to be *extra*-red, for some reason), (b) the Annex, the Gladstone/Drake-y southern tip of Davenport, Riverdale, the Beaches are all significant nodes of Grit-rather-than-NDP; sign of urban-cultural-class spurning Horwath...

[lilTommy]

The unofficial poll-by-poll results were released today on the Elections Ontario website.

http://wemakevotingeasy.ca/en/general-election-results.aspx

Here's the first poll map:

Thank You!
Very telling... First in Trinity-Spadina the NDP did win some condo land polls, looks like half a dozen, now take out the Community housng polls they won, and probably 2-3 condo polls were won by the NDP, only really won over the Little Italy-Palmerston and Christie Pitts area. They lost the University lands (North Centre of the riding) and the Hipster land, which they needed to hold those areas to offset the North East corner closer to Yorkville and the overall condo land in the south who lean Liberal. Nothing pretty here for the NDP, but not a total loss, the University-chinatown-hipster area is winnable. The By-election will be telling to see what the NDP holds vs the provincial.
Beaches - well obvious this one, Prue held on to East York but not enough to offset the lose of Beaches which trended Liberal in 2011, he had held the Upper Beaches in 2011 but losing it now cost him the riding
Davenport - Schein was the reverse of Trinity lost the Wallace-Emerson/Junction area which he needed to hold since the liberals were already dominant North of St.Clair but held on in the marginally hipster Brockton and Dufferin Grove area... north of Dundas he won, which is more working class while south is the more hipster gentrificated area we know

Parkdale-High Park - it was all Parkdale for DiNovo, she lost any poll she had won in the High Park and Swansea area but opposite to Schein won in the Junction area.
Danforth - Tabuns was lucky he lost all of Riverdale, the wealthier area at any rate, and the west Danfroth, but held Leslieville and Riverside

AMAZING Krago ... when you get some free time, what does Brampton/Mississauga look like? the NDP seemed to have been polling well in Brampton

[Hatman 🍁]

Good job, Krago. You must've been busy yesterday.

I think the official results will be out today?

[Krago]

Largest municipalities won by each party:

LIB
Toronto
Ottawa
Mississauga
Brampton
Markham

PC
Whitby
Chatham-Kent
Kawartha Lakes
Caledon
Halton Hills

NDP
Hamilton
London
Windsor
Greater Sudbury
Oshawa

GRN
Melancthon

[Krago]

Here's Brampton:

[Krago]

and Whitby and Oshawa: