Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[King of Kensington]

Weird. Perhaps Hamilton Centre isn't as populist as one would think, it probably has a lot of progressive elites much like downtown Toronto or Downtown Ottawa.

"A lot" is stretching it.  It does have more university graduates (22%) than HE-SC and Mountain, but it also a much a higher poverty rate.  Basically it's the inner city with a mix of poor and "yuppies" while the other two are pure semi-suburban or suburban working class.  Hamilton's educated and well-to-do are really in A-D-F-W.

[Hatman 🍁]

Weird. Perhaps Hamilton Centre isn't as populist as one would think, it probably has a lot of progressive elites much like downtown Toronto or Downtown Ottawa.

Hamilton Centre is more like the old Hamilton West than old Hamilton East and so has more of those people in it, yes. But note also that the NDP polled ridiculously well in that area generally last time.

Exactly. A matter of winning 51% rather than 60% of the vote

Still a significant drop, when you consider other popular NDP MPPs broke 60%. Andrea Horwath was once popular enough in her riding to do the same. Obviously her personal popularity took a hit. I think the same thing happened to her personal popularity across the province. In 2011, she was the most popular leader, but that took a hit when she forced the election.

[Citizen Hats]

Perhaps also lower turnout with NDPers staying home brought up Tory numbers? Brendan, would you be able to do a change in turnout map?

do you have the riding-turnout data yet? I haven't found it

[Hatman 🍁]

Perhaps also lower turnout with NDPers staying home brought up Tory numbers? Brendan, would you be able to do a change in turnout map?

do you have the riding-turnout data yet? I haven't found it

http://www.elections.on.ca/NR/rdonlyres/40355C47-F4E7-437B-B81B-6C7EB963B262/6281/UnofficialTurnoutGE2014.xls

[Citizen Hats]

Well, that throws a few theories out the window

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, not the Rob Ford effect theory.

[Citizen Hats]

well, it certainly doesn't look like Downtown progressives stayed home

[DC Al Fine]

Well at least turnout is back over 50%

[adma]

Rob Ford effect, maybe?

Relative to depressing the 2011 vote, maybe (remember: he was already Mayor then).  Who knows; maybe it's a combination of newspaper endorsements and gentrification--condos and Bay Street types, perhaps the counter-effect of Wynne's "left" platform, or perhaps the Grits already maxed out in seats like Wynne's own in 2011...

[Linus Van Pelt]

"Urban progressives" are not a totally unified category. In some areas of the city, there has been a significant influx of high-income professionals. Other areas are more fashionable with a sort of high-education-but-modest-income demographic that seeks out more affordable city neighbourhoods while being still very averse to the suburbs. The fact that the NDP can now get a weaker result in Trinity-Spadina than in the two ridings to its west is connected to movement of the latter group.

I suspect that the Conservative swing downtown may be linked to an increase in the condo population. Some of these finance or banking people are very right-wing economically. The swing appears to be negative in Davenport and very small in the two east-end ridings. Granted, it's hard to tell with these low swings.

[homelycooking]

[adma]

Re Hamilton Centre: I suspect the poll-by-polls will tell the whole story--and I suspect the more "hipster-zone" downtown polls will show a more dramatic anti-Andrea swing than either the more Steeltown-ey eastern zone or the typically NDP-averse Mountain.

And re Toronto and swings to the Tories, I also find the "Steeles East" corridor noteworthy, even accounting for ScarbRR being skewed by the Raymond Cho factor--maybe it has something to do with the PCs being an "entrepreneurial party", or the bias of Chinese-language media, or cultural aversion to Wynne's sexuality--or maybe I'm just reading too much into web-thread reports of why "Asiancourt" families still like Rob Ford; nevertheless, coupled with the impending ScarbAgincourt federal byelection, I wonder if this may foretell a Chinese Toryward trend akin to that which overtook the Jewish electorate a decade ago.  (Or maybe not--we'll see.)

[King of Kensington]

"Urban progressives" are not a totally unified category. In some areas of the city, there has been a significant influx of high-income professionals. Other areas are more fashionable with a sort of high-education-but-modest-income demographic that seeks out more affordable city neighbourhoods while being still very averse to the suburbs. The fact that the NDP can now get a weaker result in Trinity-Spadina than in the two ridings to its west is connected to movement of the latter group.

I suspect that the Conservative swing downtown may be linked to an increase in the condo population. Some of these finance or banking people are very right-wing economically. The swing appears to be negative in Davenport and very small in the two east-end ridings. Granted, it's hard to tell with these low swings.

So in other words, Davenport and Parkdale-High Park are like the Trinity-Spadina of the 1990s.

[King of Kensington]

Marchese blames "strategic voting" for his loss but concedes that the ONDP campaign didn't resonate in Toronto very well

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/long-time-ndp-mpp-marchese-blames-loss-on-strategic-voting/article19176432/#dashboard/follows/

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Where in the Toronto suburbs is the, for lack of a better way to put it succinctly, Alison Hendrix vote? Did the Liberals win so convincingly in part by appealing to that type of voter or was it through some other demographic?

[Holmes]

Where in the Toronto suburbs is the, for lack of a better way to put it succinctly, Alison Hendrix vote? Did the Liberals win so convincingly in part by appealing to that type of voter or was it through some other demographic?

I don't think the Alison Hendrix voters are numerous enough to form a bloc, but I'd say they're probably most numerous in the GTA between Mississauga and Hamilton, and in the Durham region. Liberals won them (whereas the Conservatives won them in the federal in 2011).

[lilTommy]

Marchese blames "strategic voting" for his loss but concedes that the ONDP campaign didn't resonate in Toronto very well

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/long-time-ndp-mpp-marchese-blames-loss-on-strategic-voting/article19176432/#dashboard/follows/

He's right; one of the main reasons the campaign didn't resonate we've already talked about are waffling urban-progressives who like Wynne, like big social investment ideas and were scared out of their mind of Hudak... add that with the overtly anti-NDP campaign run by the Star (which included mis-quoting and bold face lies) and Andrea being more on the Populist side then Progressive (although a number of reviews showed the NDP plan more progressive) just ate into the NDP too much for it to bear.
"Condos" aren't uniform as mentioned already; I live in once and rent, i'd say upwards of 25% of condo's are rental units. They are a mix of DT workers who are finance yes and vote Liberal/PC... NDP based on Candidate like Chow (tend to go with the popular trends, like Trudeau god I hope not but) but also Students, and a mix middle income working folk like myself who can't afford to buy a house and are saving, or those who buy condos since they can be half the price of a home. The "Intelligentsia" NDP, the professionals are one group who look to have either not voted or went Liberal as well... I'd like to see the poll maps of TO, to see where the vote stuck.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting, so this map doesn't look at Tory votes at all, right?

Also, map credit should go to Smid, not me

[Hatman 🍁]

Where in the Toronto suburbs is the, for lack of a better way to put it succinctly, Alison Hendrix vote? Did the Liberals win so convincingly in part by appealing to that type of voter or was it through some other demographic?

What is an Alison Hendrix voter?

[Hatman 🍁]

Re Hamilton Centre: I suspect the poll-by-polls will tell the whole story--and I suspect the more "hipster-zone" downtown polls will show a more dramatic anti-Andrea swing than either the more Steeltown-ey eastern zone or the typically NDP-averse Mountain.

And re Toronto and swings to the Tories, I also find the "Steeles East" corridor noteworthy, even accounting for ScarbRR being skewed by the Raymond Cho factor--maybe it has something to do with the PCs being an "entrepreneurial party", or the bias of Chinese-language media, or cultural aversion to Wynne's sexuality--or maybe I'm just reading too much into web-thread reports of why "Asiancourt" families still like Rob Ford; nevertheless, coupled with the impending ScarbAgincourt federal byelection, I wonder if this may foretell a Chinese Toryward trend akin to that which overtook the Jewish electorate a decade ago.  (Or maybe not--we'll see.)

All the Chinese dominated ridings swung Tory this time. I fear it had to do with Wynne's sexuality. Might also explain some of the swing to the NDP (of all parties!) in Southwestern Ontario, as we know that region is more socially conservative than one might expect from its voting patterns. Generally though, Wynne's sexuality obviously didn't have a huge effect on the outcome, and maybe even helped her win in Downtown Toronto and in the 905 (and even in Ottawa). This is good news, because just 4 years ago, we saw a gay candidate lose to Rob Ford of all people in Toronto, and 4 years before that we say a gay candidate lose in Ottawa to another bumbling conservative for mayor. (Not many people are aware of our current mayor's sexuality)

[homelycooking]

Interesting, so this map doesn't look at Tory votes at all, right?

Also, map credit should go to Smid, not me

It does, in a way. Low Conservative vote is indicated by a high "intensity" or "darkness" of color. A riding in which the Tories got 100% of the vote would be colored white. You can see that a riding like Renfrew - Nipissing - Pembroke or Haldimand - Norfolk is of a very pale color - that indicates that the combined proportion of the vote won by Liberal+NDP+Green candidates is low, and thus the Tories did well.

[Hatman 🍁]

Along the same lines as Christopher's map:

[Holmes]

Where in the Toronto suburbs is the, for lack of a better way to put it succinctly, Alison Hendrix vote? Did the Liberals win so convincingly in part by appealing to that type of voter or was it through some other demographic?

What is an Alison Hendrix voter?

Suburban soccer mom Sarah. [/gay British accent]

(Watch Orphan Black.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

"Urban progressives" are not a totally unified category. In some areas of the city, there has been a significant influx of high-income professionals. Other areas are more fashionable with a sort of high-education-but-modest-income demographic that seeks out more affordable city neighbourhoods while being still very averse to the suburbs. The fact that the NDP can now get a weaker result in Trinity-Spadina than in the two ridings to its west is connected to movement of the latter group.

Yeah, that's the kind of thing I was wondering about, though didn't articulate quite as well as would have been ideal.

[Hatman 🍁]

Where in the Toronto suburbs is the, for lack of a better way to put it succinctly, Alison Hendrix vote? Did the Liberals win so convincingly in part by appealing to that type of voter or was it through some other demographic?

What is an Alison Hendrix voter?

Suburban soccer mom Sarah. [/gay British accent]

(Watch Orphan Black.)

A Canadian TV show on Space? That's obscure as it gets for me

Without even knowing the context I did guess it may have been the "soccer mom" vote.