Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[adma]

For the next four years the Liberals will get to do whatever they want and the NDP will play second fiddle to the PCs in terms of media attention.

Although that'd be more the media's fault than anything.  After all, at 21 seats to 27, the NDP isn't *that* far behind PC...

[Hatman 🍁]

This is interesting: http://www.cbc.ca/elections/ontariovotes2014/features/view/election-issues-by-riding1

Someone should compile the results to see what the most left wing and right wing ridings are. There are some surprises on there for sure.

[Hatman 🍁]

Map:

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Doing the Lord's work I see. Thank you.

[Hatman 🍁]

Strongest result for any party: Nickel Belt! (NDP won with 63%).

Strongest PC result: Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke (61%)
Strongest Liberal result: St. Paul's (60%)

[Citizen Hats]

scrap that, there's something wrong with my data file

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, I feel like there should be more purple

[Hatman 🍁]

Rumours on Twitter suggest that the Tories actually won Thornhill due to apparent tabulation error.

[emcee0]

0 votes for the Libertarian candidate in Haldimand-Norfolk? http://wemakevotingeasy.ca/en/general-election-district-results.aspx?d=028

Yes, that's my riding. The candidate withdrew from the ballot at the last minute.

[Хahar 🤔]

I think the Tories could win with a moderate leader. Will also help if the Liberals win federally. Ontario doesn't like to have a Premier of the same party as the Prime Minister for some reason.

Ontario's not different than any other province in that regard. It's no coincidence that the two provinces where the NDP vote didn't go up in 2011 were Manitoba and Nova Scotia.

[Hatman 🍁]

0 votes for the Libertarian candidate in Haldimand-Norfolk? http://wemakevotingeasy.ca/en/general-election-district-results.aspx?d=028

Yes, that's my riding. The candidate withdrew from the ballot at the last minute.

So, we wasn't on the ballot? I didn't realize one could do that. Even when candidates "withdraw", their name normally stays on the ballot, and they still get votes.

[Hatman 🍁]

Thornhill's result has been flipped. The PCs have won it: http://wemakevotingeasy.ca/en/general-election-district-results.aspx?d=089

[Citizen Hats]

have they counted all the absentees?

[Citizen Hats]

Interestingly enough, all three leaders lost votes in their own seats. Wynne was down 1.31 pp.  Hudak was down 8.97 pp, and Horwath was down 9.28 pp.

Is there some sort of reverse leader effect in Ontario?

[Hatman 🍁]

have they counted all the absentees?

Yes

Interestingly enough, all three leaders lost votes in their own seats. Wynne was down 1.31 pp.  Hudak was down 8.97 pp, and Horwath was down 9.28 pp.

Is there some sort of reverse leader effect in Ontario?

Weird. Perhaps Hamilton Centre isn't as populist as one would think, it probably has a lot of progressive elites much like downtown Toronto or Downtown Ottawa.

[Citizen Hats]

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Wait... there was a positive swing to the Tories in Downtown Toronto?

[Njall]

Interestingly enough, all three leaders lost votes in their own seats. Wynne was down 1.31 pp.  Hudak was down 8.97 pp, and Horwath was down 9.28 pp.

Is there some sort of reverse leader effect in Ontario?

Weird. Perhaps Hamilton Centre isn't as populist as one would think, it probably has a lot of progressive elites much like downtown Toronto or Downtown Ottawa.

The results from Vote Compass, flawed as they may or may not be, would seem to support this hypothesis.

[Citizen Hats]

a small one (0-3%), but nonetheless a swing. More of a dead-cat-bounce

[Hash]

Wait... there was a positive swing to the Tories in Downtown Toronto?

The Tories had already absolutely bombed in Toronto in 2011, courtesy of Hudak.

[Hatman 🍁]

Rob Ford effect, maybe?

[Hatman 🍁]

Perhaps also lower turnout with NDPers staying home brought up Tory numbers? Brendan, would you be able to do a change in turnout map?

[King of Kensington]

Thornhill's result has been flipped. The PCs have won it: http://wemakevotingeasy.ca/en/general-election-district-results.aspx?d=089

So I guess Thornhill is still stuck in 2007?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Weird. Perhaps Hamilton Centre isn't as populist as one would think, it probably has a lot of progressive elites much like downtown Toronto or Downtown Ottawa.

Hamilton Centre is more like the old Hamilton West than old Hamilton East and so has more of those people in it, yes. But note also that the NDP polled ridiculously well in that area generally last time.

[Citizen Hats]

Weird. Perhaps Hamilton Centre isn't as populist as one would think, it probably has a lot of progressive elites much like downtown Toronto or Downtown Ottawa.

Hamilton Centre is more like the old Hamilton West than old Hamilton East and so has more of those people in it, yes. But note also that the NDP polled ridiculously well in that area generally last time.

Exactly. A matter of winning 51% rather than 60% of the vote