Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wonder what role demographic changes and continued gentrification in Toronto played a part in the results there; would the NDP have maybe held more seats in the city had things on the ground been as they were even ten years ago? Don't get me wrong here; the big issue was surely that the - now tres bobo - urban progressive left - which is more than capable of voting Dipper en masse - was alienated by the NDP campaign, but the context is interesting.

[Krago]

The election was a victory for socialism over moderation.

Socialist Party of Ontario/Parti Socialiste d'Ontario   361 votes - 2 candidates
Ontario Moderate Party   335 votes - 2 candidates


Closest riding to province-wide vote %:  Cambridge
Closest three-way race:  London North Centre

In the 26 ridings where a Freedom Party candidate ran against a Libertarian, Freedom lost 22-4.

[DC Al Fine]

Are there any federal Tories interested in Hudak's job? Tony Clement perhaps?

[Hatman 🍁]

Cambridge, the bellwether? Who would've thought.

I think Peterborough is the best provincial bellwether in the province, it continues the streak tonight.

Anyways, as an NDP supporter, I'm not upset with the results. It seems the only people who thinks the NDP did awful are the CBC and people who support other parties. You have to remember, the NDP did just awful in the late 1990s/early 2000s, and I remember those dark times well. Seeing the NDP get 24% of the vote and 21 seats feels like a victory, even if there's no power with it. It's not like we actually thought we'd form the government anyways. Knowing that, what would a good night for the NDP even look like?

The party has steadily increased its vote share and seat total over the last few elections, so that's definitely positive.

And besides, isn't losing seats and popular vote the standard measure for ditching leaders? The NDP did neither. Any other reasons one can come up with is subjective.
 

[Krago]

But Hatman, the NDP lost seats in TORONTO!  Who cares about Windsor or Sudbury or Oshawa?

That being said, Mr. Joe Cressy's next three weeks will not be pleasant.

One big loser last night, IMHO, was Warren Kinsella.  He has been throwing a tantrum since his candidate Sandra Pupatello lost the Ontario Liberal leadership to Kathleen Wynne, and has been doing everything he can to bad-mouth Wynne and her campaign team ever since.  People who follow his every twitch and tweet may soon grow tired of his pettiness and recognize that winning elections against a divided Conservative movement may not have been that hard after all.

[EPG]

One would expect an election of choice to be better for the party that did the choosing. I imagine this factor is affecting people's judgement of the NDP performance. Perhaps they think it's better than in the typical historical election, but that one would expect it to be better since the NDP helped to choose the timing.

The right question is how much influence the NDP loses by turning their minority support into opposition. If the Ontario Liberals have to adopt more traditional NDP-esque policies now, maybe the answer is "lots as a party, but not much as advocates of a set of political policies". Or maybe the Liberals do what they like and the NDP threw away its sway in the name of a good loss, which like all losses ends up as a note in the statistical almanac.

[Hatman 🍁]

But Hatman, the NDP lost seats in TORONTO!  Who cares about Windsor or Sudbury or Oshawa?

Oh yeah, the centre of the universe. I forgot that one seat in Toronto is more important than 10 elsewhere.

[lilTommy]

http://www.thestar.com/news/ontario_election/2014/06/12/ontario_election-party_performance_2014.html?cq_ck=1402676247420

A Breakdown of how strong the parties did... you can see the trends;
NDP strong seconds in SW and dominating much of the North and scattering throughout the GTHA. Liberals dominated in the GTHA, strong seconds through central and east
PCs very consistently strong/moderate in all rural regions

Toronto NDPers got played: http://nowtoronto.com/news/story.cfm?content=198460&fb_action_ids=10102639174385452&fb_action_types=og.likes

[lilTommy]

But Hatman, the NDP lost seats in TORONTO!  Who cares about Windsor or Sudbury or Oshawa?

Oh yeah, the centre of the universe. I forgot that one seat in Toronto is more important than 10 elsewhere.

For me it was the shock of losing ridings that have been held since 99 by the NDP, and before the current boundaries, were NDP going back to the 60s-70s ... and my own darn riding! Trinity-Spadina

[Krago]

Based on margin of loss (%), Trinity-Spadina is now the NDP's 14th target riding in the next election, behind Durham and Kitchener-Conestoga, but ahead of Nipissing and Huron-Bruce.

The NDP mother-daughter battles were a split.  Jan Johnstone (Huron-Bruce) beat Alex Johnstone (ADFW) by a margin of 22.9% to 15.7%, while Catherine Fife (Kitchener-Waterloo) doubled her mom Sheila Wood (Peterborough) 37.4% to 18.3%.

In Ontario, candidates need to score 15% or more to get back their deposit and be eligible for a campaign subsidy.  Two Liberal candidates fell short of this threshold (Essex and Niagara Falls), while 15 PCs and 32 NDP will be empty-handed.  Only three Greens candidates (Parry Sound-Muskoka, Guelph and Dufferin-Caledon) managed to get more than 15% of the vote in their riding.

Michelle Bilek (NDP - Mississauga-Erindale) kept her deposit by a margin of 11 votes, while Brandon Wright (PC - Windsor-Tecumseh) fell 28 votes short.

[Krago]

The best result from outside the 'Big 4' parties was Tamara Johnson, the Libertarian candidate in Thunder Bay-Superior North (3.3%).  Her Green competitor soared from 2.1% to 3.6%, no doubt due to Bruce Hyer's recent conversion.

[Hatman 🍁]

The best result from outside the 'Big 4' parties was Tamara Johnson, the Libertarian candidate in Thunder Bay-Superior North (3.3%).  Her Green competitor soared from 2.1% to 3.6%, no doubt due to Bruce Hyer's recent conversion.

lol... Tamara Johnson was the former PC candidate, and had a controversial anti-native campaign poster that made the rounds on the interwebs.

Based on margin of loss (%), Trinity-Spadina is now the NDP's 14th target riding in the next election, behind Durham and Kitchener-Conestoga, but ahead of Nipissing and Huron-Bruce.

Oh Jesus.

[King of Kensington]

Well, it's their best result since 1990 - in terms of both seats and votes - and one that is (obviously) quite credible by historical standards. Hard to call that awful, given the various post-Rae elections.

A glorious triumph it obviously isn't, but who here is saying that?

I think Horwath just barely passes the "stay on as leader" threshold: can say she got a bit of an increase of the popular vote, almost as many seats as the Tories, could have been worse because the party was "stabbed in the back" by the "group of 34" etc.

But I have to say the "brilliant strategy" didn't bare much fruit at all.  They sacrificed 3 Toronto MPPs to win 3 MPPs elsewhere and no longer have the balance of power.  Horwath was supposed to have brought the party to the "big leagues" and be on the cusp of displacing the Liberals.  That certainly didn't materialize.

[King of Kensington]

I wonder what role demographic changes and continued gentrification in Toronto played a part in the results there; would the NDP have maybe held more seats in the city had things on the ground been as they were even ten years ago? Don't get me wrong here; the big issue was surely that the - now tres bobo - urban progressive left - which is more than capable of voting Dipper en masse - was alienated by the NDP campaign, but the context is interesting.

I don't think the old city of Toronto of the 1980s would have been much different - except maybe for Prue.

Another thing to note that while one can talk about an "orange wave" in Brampton, the "Ford New Democrat" strategy didn't do well in ungentrified working class outer Toronto.  Paul Ferreira lost ground in York South-Weston and they also lost support in Scarborough. 

I suppose York West is kind of the exception but I think that may have been that Mario Sergio has gotten more tired and complicit - the gap was narrowed but that trend was a continuation of what began in 2007.  Not so convinced Horwath-mania had much to do with it.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

For what it's worth, I found the NDP's campaign to be utterly alienating. Horwath didn't advocate for any leftist values or principles during the campaign and spent more time bashing Wynne over "corruption" than taking on Hudak's neo-liberalism. The NDP's rout in Toronto was completely preventable and it had nothing to do with the Toronto Star or a letter or Liberal deception. It's the result of a campaign that had no absolutely no appeal to urban progressives and they were punished for it.

I wouldn't be surprised if the NDP's coalition changed dramatically in this election and that a NDP -> Liberal swing in many seats was masked by a PC -> NDP swing.

[King of Kensington]

I agree.  They made the strategic decision that to win back the "working class" they had to run to the right and appeal to them with populist planks like tax cuts.  A Toronto Star/group of 34 conspiracy is not to blame, it was their strategic choice to sacrifice Marchese, Prue and Schein. 

[lilTommy]

I agree.  They made the strategic decision that to win back the "working class" they had to run to the right and appeal to them with populist planks like tax cuts.  A Toronto Star/group of 34 conspiracy is not to blame, it was their strategic choice to sacrifice Marchese, Prue and Schein. 

Which was totally avoidable... they party only needed to include a couple of big ideas within the platform that would appeal to the TO base, that would have balanced the party out, saved at least Beaches, possibly Davenport... Trinity-Spadina would have been much closer. I floated ideas like putting the 407 back under public ownership (revenue tools without creating "new" taxes) OR include more language and policy around Social Justice. I had a friend who didn't vote NDP because there was no mention of OSDP and poverty (He had previously run for the NDP)
... a couple Rabble articles

Should have run as New Democrats: http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/djclimenhaga/2014/06/ontario-election-ok-didnt-really-work-%E2%80%A6-can-we-get-back-to-being

Liberals were lucky: http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/gerry-caplan/2014/06/liberals-were-lucky-so-was-ontario#.U5tdA-2AQSU.facebook

[Holmes]

So the NDP trying to appeal to working class voters ruffled the poor Torontonians' sensitive delicacies? I don't think so. Trinity-Spadina should've been gone in 2011 and Wynne is a really good fit for the GTA. She caters to them and they've repayed her.

[Hatman 🍁]

There's also the "favourite daughter" effect that could've helped Wynne.

But I'm sick of so called "urban progressives" whining about the NDP platform. I live in a city, and I like to think I'm progressive (a social democrat, anyways), and I had very few issues with the platform. I would go so far as to say I like how it tried to appeal to populist voters. The party should try and me more inclusive, especially if it wants to form government.

[You kip if you want to...]

There's also the "favourite daughter" effect that could've helped Wynne.

But I'm sick of so called "urban progressives" whining about the NDP platform. I live in a city, and I like to think I'm progressive (a social democrat, anyways), and I had very few issues with the platform. I would go so far as to say I like how it tried to appeal to populist voters. The party should try and me more inclusive, especially if it wants to form government.

"(Hipster) urban progressives" don't tend to like their parties being appealing and electable. See, the pre-2010 LibDems, any Green Party ever.

[EPG]

But the complaint here is that they helped defend a centrist government and usher in its majority...

[Krago]

Next Quebec provincial election - October 1, 2018
Next Ontario provincial election - October 4, 2018
Next next Ontario municipal election - October 22, 2018

[MaxQue]

Next Quebec provincial election - October 1, 2018
Next Ontario provincial election - October 4, 2018
Next next Ontario municipal election - October 22, 2018

Most likely, one of the Ontario elections will be moved.

[Hatman 🍁]

Next Quebec provincial election - October 1, 2018
Next Ontario provincial election - October 4, 2018
Next next Ontario municipal election - October 22, 2018

Most likely, one of the Ontario elections will be moved.

Yup. Makes sense to have the provincial election in the Spring, I think.

[Hatman 🍁]

0 votes for the Libertarian candidate in Haldimand-Norfolk? http://wemakevotingeasy.ca/en/general-election-district-results.aspx?d=028