Will the GOP take the Senate in November?

[DevotedDemocrat]

Do you believe the Republicans will claim the Senate this November?

[RedSLC]

[IceSpear]

I'd say it's around 50-50 at this point. Voted no since my hackishness tipped the scale.

[Consciously Unconscious]

I'd say it's around 50-50 at this point. Voted no yes since my hackishness tipped the scale.

[DevotedDemocrat]

What can we expect to happen if they do win?

[7,052,770]

They've got a shot, but you know they're gonna blow it somehow.  Look for Democrats to win at least 1, if not 2, out of South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Arkansas, Kentucky, Georgia, and Mississippi.

Republicans can't take the Senate without winning all 7 of those races.

[SWE]

I'd say it's around 50-50 at this point. Voted no since my hackishness tipped the scale.

[ElectionsGuy]

Right now I'm predicting it will just barely go to the republicans 51-49, but the tipping point is really sensitive at this point.

By the way this is the wrong board.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

My gut feeling is a 50-50 split, so the Democrats will technically retain the Senate with Biden's tie-breaking votes, but it's pretty useless with the filibusters and Manchin not supporting the nuclear option.

[TDAS04]

I would I guess yes.  I don't think that many expected the Democrats to take the Senate during this time in 2006, but they did in November.  I don't know, but people can underestimate how brutal midterms can be for the incumbent party.

[Cory]

I'd say it's around 50-50 at this point. Voted no since my hackishness tipped the scale.

[Oak Hills]

Let's see.

As we all know, they would need six seats to take the Senate.

I think it's probably most likely there are no Democratic pick-ups this year, so that would mean all the GOP has to do is take six Democratic seats. I think at this point they most likely will pick up exactly that (Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia), so I'll say "yes" at this point.

[RogueBeaver]

I'd say it's around 50-50 at this point. Voted no yes since my hackishness tipped the scale.

[Joshgreen]

No, they will blow their chance as usual.

[morgieb]

Yeah, tend to agree it's 50/50. Suspect they do, but I'm probably giving them too much credit.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Yes, as long as the Tea Party movement doesn't blow it like they did in 2010 and 2012.

[free my dawg]

Yeah, tend to agree it's 50/50. Suspect they do, but I'm probably giving them too much credit.

[Keystone Phil]

No, it would be in January 2015. Next question.

[henster]

GOP most likely picks up 7-8 seats  (SD, WV, MT, AR, LA, AK, NC) possibly IA with 52-53 seats in 2015 going by the current environment right now. Then 2016 comes into focus if they win 52 seats then Dems can at least breathe easy that they would only need three seats to take it back (WI, IL, PA) already there for them but 53 seats or more for the Rs its a steeper climb for the Ds.

[LeBron]

It's basically going to be like the 2010 Senate races, again. Democrats have a smaller and more vulnerable majority but we have our O'Donnell's, Raese's, Angle's, and Buck's in LA, NC, AK, and heck, even MT and if we hold at least 2 of those seats which I bet we will because Cassidy and Tillis will find some way to mess it up for Republicans, we'll control the Senate while we can enjoy some comedy in the defeat of Blanche Lincoln all over again in Arkansas!

So I think we lose about 4 seats and narrowly hold the Senate 51-49 in losing SD, WV, probably MT, and AK. A second case scenario is we lose SD, WV, MT, AK, one of either LA/NC/MI/CO, and then Dems pick up either KY or GA. If Nate Silver isn't right with his scenarios based on probability in the 2010 and 2012 Senate races, then I doubt he will this time either, and even then, he's only giving 3/5ths of a chance of GOP Senate control when the climate for Dems is still looking bad while Obamacare is only at 38% favorable. With President Obama's 7+ million goal nearly met with working, cheaper healthcare plans, it won't be an effective issue this year for Republicans and it could hurt them in losing the 3rd chance in a row for full Congressional control and losing more seats in the House. I'm still sticking by neither chamber flips and Dems make about 5 gubernatorial gains with 2 more lame-duck years for Obama, unfortunately.

[SPC]

It's basically going to be like the 2010 Senate races, again.

In 2010, the only seat the Democrats held in a McCain seat was in West Virginia, where they had a popular Governor competing against a perennial candidate. The GOP's main missed opportunities (Colorado, Nevada, and Delaware) all voted for Obama by a larger margin than the national average. Assuming the same pattern holds with the 2014 map, the GOP would be virtually guaranteed 6-8 seats. Long story short, Democrats can't rely on a 2010 repeat to keep the Senate.

[MATTROSE94]

Its certainly within the realm of possibility that the Republicans could win the Senate, though they could screw up their chances to hold safe seats in Mississippi, Georgia, Tennessee and South Carolina by nominating Tea-Party extremists like Chris McDaniel, Paul Broun, Joe Carr and Lee Bright.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In 2010, the only seat the Democrats held in a McCain seat was in West Virginia, where they had a popular Governor competing against a perennial candidate. The GOP's main missed opportunities (Colorado, Nevada, and Delaware) all voted for Obama by a larger margin than the national average. Assuming the same pattern holds with the 2014 map, the GOP would be virtually guaranteed 6-8 seats. Long story short, Democrats can't rely on a 2010 repeat to keep the Senate. [quote]

How does the 2010 pattern repeat itself? We came off a 10 percent unemployment rate. And a tech bubble burst. Although the only gov race that matters is MI at this point, the GOP won the generic ballot. This time the generic ballot is even. We are gonna pick up House seats. And gov seats. I think the mean is my prediction 4 or 5 seat loss. In which we hold onto AK and Landrieu or Hagen loses. Pick up a new seat.

[SPC]

In 2010, the only seat the Democrats held in a McCain seat was in West Virginia, where they had a popular Governor competing against a perennial candidate. The GOP's main missed opportunities (Colorado, Nevada, and Delaware) all voted for Obama by a larger margin than the national average. Assuming the same pattern holds with the 2014 map, the GOP would be virtually guaranteed 6-8 seats. Long story short, Democrats can't rely on a 2010 repeat to keep the Senate.

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Adam said that it would be a repeat of 2010, I was merely correcting him regarding the implications of that statement.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

And I was merely pointing out, just because they are Mitt Romney states, in AK, LA, and NC, where the senate is decided, the GOP will pick up the open seats or semi inc seats of Mnt, SD and WVa, AK and LA did trended toward Obama in 2012, and Obama did manage to win NC one time.