Hillary 2016 vs. Hoover 1928

[Mechaman]

Let's see here:

The Similarities

Hillary Clinton 2016:

• Widely respected and almost universally popular public figure
• Held a Cabinet position with the current President (first term)
• Promoted as an invincible presidential candidate for a little more than a decade
• Widely hailed "progressive" champion who has the establishment art down and can get things done.
• Wide appeal to a diverse audience including large numbers of independents and areas that have become very hostile to the national Democratic Party.
• Has a massive popularity lead over any other possible Democrat who could run in the primaries.
• The opposition has a weak field compared to Hillary.  So far the strongest challenger is the tough talking incumbent Governor of New Jersey who has gone on record saying that climate change is real, some handgun regulations are necessary, has made some concessions on the gay marriage debate, and blamed his own party's House for the delay in helping repair his state's coastside communities when Hurricane Sandy hit.  Is widely perceived as a "moderate" if not "liberal" by many of the party's conservative base and who is implicated in some shady dealings.

And now:

Herbert Hoover 1928:

• Widely Respected and almost universally popular public figure
• Held a Cabinet position with the then current President and predecessor
• Promoted as an invincible presidential candidate for nearly a decade
• Widely hailed "efficiency movement" progressive champion who has wide establishment and popular support and seen as a capable politician in his position as Secretary of Commerce.
• Wide appeal to a diverse audience including large numbers of independents and areas that have become very hostile to the national Republican Party.
• Has a massive popularity lead over any likely GOP challenger, save for the incumbent president who seems very uninterested in running for re-election.
  
• Most major Democratic party leaders are content to sit this one out.  So far the most likely candidate for the nomination at the 1928 DNC is the liberal incumbent Irish Catholic Governor of New York who has repeatedly made noise against the Volstead Act, made a stand against the lynch mob at the previous DNC, in his first term as Governor defended members of the Socialist Party against expulsion in the New York State Legislature, and is a member of the unholy corrupt papal menace.  Is widely perceived as "unAmerican" if not a "state socialist" by many of the party's protestant base and has some shady business dealings.

I'm not going to predict that Hillary Clinton as President will lead the nation into a Second Great Depression and be defeated in a 400+ Electoral landslide in 2020, but the historical comparisons are just too good and too funny to pass up.

[Skill and Chance]

The odds of the economy holding up well enough for Democrats to win 4X in a row are obviously low.  But it's really just because of math.  To keep your party in office for another term, you generally need to avoid a recession for another 4 years.  Or have only a modest one occur in the odd-numbered year immediately after the presidential election.  This can make you look like a hero (G.W. Bush in 2002/Reagan/Ike), but you are done if a recession continues on past the midterm election.

So if you want the Democrats to win 4 elections in row from 2008-2020, you are essentially betting that either: 1. there won't be another recession until 2021 or 2. there will be a recession specifically in 2017.  Both of those options are relatively unlikely considering that there are 6 other years in which to have a recession in that time frame.

[Emperor Charles V]

I would actually like to see this happen and history repeat itself again (minus World War II and the Holocaust of course). The Republicans get a landslide over Hillary of all people in 2020, another New Deal but this time in their favor and an even bigger landslide in 2024! Maybe we'd get the patriot act too repealed under the 2020 winner!

44. Barack Obama (D-IL) 2009-2017
45. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) 2017-2021
46. Rand Paul (R-KY) 2021-2029
47. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA) 2029-2037
48. John Tyler Hammons (R-OK) 2037-2041
49. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) 2041-2049

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

I support Hillary but this is a good analogy and one I've thought about myself.

Really, you can go back over the last decade and a half and find similarities:

Nader/Greens = TR/Bull Moose party of 2000
Bush = Wilson (plurality win, two terms, Eastern links but Southern support base, interventionist foreign policy, hated by civil libertarians)
2004 = 1916 (foreign policy election, decided in one state, tight win by incumbent, challenger is stiff guy and future SoS who thinks he won until the last minute)
2006 = 1918 (both houses change hands as public tires of war)
Obama = Harding (handsome charismatic senator from large Midwest state, surprise choice, part-black or rumored to be)

Obviously it breaks down because Obama didn't die his first term, have a Teapot Dome scandal, or do it with a young girl in a broom closet. So far as we know.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

I would actually like to see this happen and history repeat itself again (minus World War II and the Holocaust of course).

I'm glad you specified this.

[H. Ross Peron]

If we are going to do these comparisons (mine's somewhat inspired by the Strauss-Howe generational theory)...

Theodore Roosevelt-Ronald Reagan: Both were hawkish Republican Presidents who were very popular and managed to define the party long after they left the White House
William Howard Taft-George HW Bush: "Heirs" to the popular predecessor whose own policies were less than popular and ended up losing re-election
1912 Election-1992 Election: Three-way elections which resulted in a victory for the Democratic candidate
Woodrow Wilson-William Jefferson Clinton: Centrist Democrats who promoted a liberal internationalist foreign policy and are loved to be hated by True Leftists. Also had politically influential wives
Warren G Harding/Calvin Coolidge-George W. Bush: Both were pro-business Republicans who presided over periods of extreme income inequality, tax cuts, and so forth.
Herbert Hoover-Barack Obama: Popular candidates who were seen as sensible "progressives"

Of course there's no FDR in sight which forced Obama to combine the roles of Hoover and FDR in his two terms as President

[pbrower2a]

Barack Obama isn't exactly Calvin Coolidge.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

England had the Labour Party for 3 straight terms. It was only a matter of time before the Dems here were gonna duplicate that. Most Western Democracies are moving to that. The Tories held the prez from 1921-33. I say, the Dems will stay, it is the economy now that is hurting the GOP.