Ireland by-elections, 2014

[EPG]

Left-wing independent Patrick Nulty, who got into the Dáil at the 2011 by-election, is out again. It's a pretty sordid story.

Dublin West will go to the polls this year. One of the government's electoral reforms means the writ must be issued some time in the next six months. The probability of a second Labour victory is, shall we say, low.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So I imagine this seat will likely fall back into Fianna Fail? Given that it managed to save the seat even in the blowout 2011 election? Have FF managed to recover from being shut entirely out of Dublin?

Irish politics is admittedly quite confusing, so this might be incorrect.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

So I imagine this seat will likely fall back into Fianna Fail? Given that it managed to save the seat even in the blowout 2011 election? Have FF managed to recover from being shut entirely out of Dublin?

Irish politics is admittedly quite confusing, so this might be incorrect.

It's possible but I think unlikely. Strangely enough I reckon the favourite here is STOP THE WATER TAX The Socialist Party.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

A very detailed profile of the constituency here

It was written at the time of the last by-election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

lol

[EPG]

Fianna Fáil saved the seat in 2011 because this constituency has lots of well-off professionals but a weak Fine Gael presence. Apart from Leo Varadkar, FG don't have much going on here. Consider the below-average increase in the FG vote in 2011 and their worse result in the by-election that year. This was an area where the PDs were able to consistently elect councillors and that vote may have gone to FF along with their final representative.

FG elected 1 out of a total 7 councillors in 1991. He then defected to the PDs, leaving FG with none in 1999, 1/8 in 2004 (Leo) and 2/9 in 2009, which is pretty low even compared to the rest of Dublin. They ran one of their councillors with Leo in 2011, where he didn't do so well, and they ran the other in the by-election, where she did worse. So they seem to be exhausted.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Worth noting: Back in 2011 this was one of the few seats where the combined Labour+SF+Far Left vote was over 50%. And this is a place where the left parties definitely do transfer to each other.

[Јas]

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http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/byelection-to-replace-nulty-likely-to-be-held-in-autumn-1.1735600

[EPG]

Have FF managed to recover from being shut entirely out of Dublin?

There's been no election in Dublin since 2011 but their national recovery has probably happened there too, if to a lesser extent. Note that their 2013 recovery ebbed in most recent polls to 21-24%, which is only 4-7% above 2011 and would still be their second-worst ever result. Irish politics haven't snapped back to the old alignment. Far from it.

[joevsimp]

Dublin has three seats in the European Parliament, so we'll see in May whether they can regain one seat (probably a three way scrap between FF, SF and SP (who hold the seat but might slip given that its not Joe Higgins' name on the ballot this time)

[ObserverIE]

Dublin has three seats in the European Parliament, so we'll see in May whether they can regain one seat (probably a three way scrap between FF, SF and SP (who hold the seat but might slip given that its not Joe Higgins' name on the ballot this time)

There have been no published opinion polls, but strategically placed leaks indicate that Hayes (FG) is likely to take the first seat, with Ryan (GP), Fitzpatrick (FF), Costello (Lab) and Boylan (SF) in the running for the remaining two. Internecine Trotskyite feuding seems likely to doom Murphy (SP).

[joevsimp]

seems that the same thing happens when you join up with the SWP on either side of the Irish Sea.

are the Greens really in with a chance? I didn't even think they had any councilors anymore

edit: just looked up, they have 18 cllrs, last elections in 2009 before the big wipeout

[ObserverIE]

seems that the same thing happens when you join up with the SWP on either side of the Irish Sea.

are the Greens really in with a chance? I didn't even think they had any councilors anymore

edit: just looked up, they have 18 cllrs, last elections in 2009 before the big wipeout

Most of those are on town councils - which are being abolished.

They elected three county councillors in 2009, in Dundalk (Co. Louth), Kilkenny city and Ennis (Co. Clare). The councillor in Clare has since defected to Fianna Fáil.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

There will be another by-election, presumably held at the same time, in Longford-Westmeath (which is ObserverIE's constituency) due to the death of sitting Fine Gael TD Nicky McFadden

(Too soon?)

[MaxQue]

(Too soon?)

The British tradition is after the funeral to talk about a by-election (even if Crewe and Nantwich was a big violation of that, the election being called before funeral). I'm not aware of similar traditions in other countries.

In Canada, such talk begins one day or two after the announcement of the death.

I obviously can't comment on Irish tradition on that.

[ObserverIE]

Funerals in Ireland are generally held two days after the death (sometimes a couple of extra days if the death was sudden or if relatives need to travel from abroad). In Britain, by contrast, several weeks can pass between the death and the funeral.

And yes, it is my constituency, although I live in its northern fringes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

(even if Crewe and Nantwich was a big violation of that, the election being called before funeral)

Though it was a late funeral (as can happen when a family lives all over the place) and the family were fine with that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway, codes of behavior can be odd.

[MaxQue]

(even if Crewe and Nantwich was a big violation of that, the election being called before funeral)

Though it was a late funeral (as can happen when a family lives all over the place) and the family were fine with that.

I know late funerals. I know someone whose funeral was 3 months after the death (the family was very far, so they wanted to do the funeral and the burial to be quite close in time and you can't bury people in Quebec during winter because the earth is frozen solid and most cemetaries are closed in winter).

On that issue, Irish media seems classy and not mention it, yet, which is very respectable.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

RIP. so young

Dublin has three seats in the European Parliament, so we'll see in May whether they can regain one seat (probably a three way scrap between FF, SF and SP (who hold the seat but might slip given that its not Joe Higgins' name on the ballot this time)

in answer to my qeuestion, about FF recovering in Dublin: apparently not.

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/fianna-fail-struggles-to-mount-any-kind-of-revival-in-the-capital-30117071.html

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Adorable

[ObserverIE]

The funeral is tomorrow.

[EPG]

in answer to my qeuestion, about FF recovering in Dublin: apparently not.

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/fianna-fail-struggles-to-mount-any-kind-of-revival-in-the-capital-30117071.html

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I think it's Fianna Fáil policy to consolidate branches in Dublin, which is why the numbers are small. Those huge branch numbers are in counties with sparsely-populated areas where consolidation wouldn't be tolerated.

As for the national church-gate collection, they haven't done it in Dublin in recent years, in favour of more secular fundraisers. It's unpopular among donors, churches, and party members, more so in Dublin than elsewhere, but also, low and declining attendances at Masses in the capital mean you don't get many passers-by.

However, the point is pretty clear, the way the party does its business is less-favoured in Dublin nowadays.

Demographic breakdowns aren't worth much in Irish opinion polls because they're so rare and volatile. Perhaps because of that volatility, companies don't usually publish them - they just let the newspaper publish what they want! For what it's worth, here are recent poll figures:

REDC, 6-8 January 2014: National 22%, Dublin 14%
Behaviour and Attitudes, 11-19 February 2014: National 19%, Dublin 10%
(General election, 25 February 2011: National 17%, Dublin 12%)

[Хahar 🤔]

Who should be favored in Longford–Westmeath? My first inclination would be to say FF, but it hasn't been a particularly good constituency for them in the recent past, and this government hasn't lost a by-election yet.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Who should be favored in Longford–Westmeath? My first inclination would be to say FF, but it hasn't been a particularly good constituency for them in the recent past, and this government hasn't lost a by-election yet.

I would personally lean towards FG holding the seat although FF are sure to pour all their resources here as victory would indicate evidence of their 'comeback' (although this will be after the locals so by then we'll know much better if the 'comeback' is on or not). Either way, it will be between the two traditional parties unless a local and potentially popular independent candidate gets involved.

[ObserverIE]

Who should be favored in Longford–Westmeath? My first inclination would be to say FF, but it hasn't been a particularly good constituency for them in the recent past, and this government hasn't lost a by-election yet.

Assuming that it's not too soon...

I would expect FG to be favourite, assuming the candidate is Gabrielle McFadden, sister of the late TD and currently a member of Athlone Town Council and Westmeath County Council.

Basically the constituency divides into three parts:

Athlone/South Westmeath (pop. ~35K)
Mullingar/Mid-Westmeath (pop. ~35K)
Longford (pop. ~40K)

McFadden was based in Athlone, and the other existing FG TD (Bannon) is from Longford, so the FG candidate will almost certainly be from Athlone. If it's not Gabrielle McFadden, the candidate might be Mark Cooney (son of a former Justice minister and on the Gay Mitchell wing of the party) but in that case they would be unlikely to obtain a sympathy vote which helped them in Meath East.

Labour are only really organised in Mullingar/Mid-Westmeath - but have been extremely strong there - so they will probably run a candidate from that area but not one who would be strong enough to endanger their sitting TD (Penrose). It's likely to be less of a disaster for them than Meath East or the likely result in Dublin West but it still won't be pretty.

SF's candidate last time (Hogan) is from Athlone and will be the candidate again. He would be aiming to solidify his vote in the expectation of taking a seat next time (he was second runner-up in 2011).

For FF, the sitting TD (Troy) is from Mid-Westmeath (actually from the same village as the Labour TD) so they can either join everyone else in picking a candidate from Athlone or pick a candidate from Longford and appeal to county patriotism in the hope of getting a sizeable bloc of votes.

As far as Gully's prospective independents, the two names that would come to mind are:

Kevin "Boxer" Moran, a former FF councillor from Athlone who left the party before the 2011 election when veteran TD Mary "Mammy" O'Rourke decided to run yet again. Moran outpolled "Mammy", who got run out of town on a rail, but I'm not sure whether he's reconciled with his old party or not.

Mae Sexton, a former PD TD from Longford who joined Labour before the last election, was an unsuccessful candidate in 2011, and left the party about a year after the election. If all the main candidates in the by-election are from Westmeath, she might well run on a localist ticket.