Could Hillary get 40% in OK?

[Old Man Willow]

Well?

[Maxwell]

I don't think there's a great chance of that, but I think the possibility exists.

[NewYorkExpress]

Extremely unlikely at best.

[ElectionsGuy]

Nope, but she has a good chance at getting >35%.

[Randy Bobandy]

Bill barely cracked 40% in '96, so I don't see why she can't.

[Joshgreen]

Long answer: yes.
Short answer: yes.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Long answer: yes.
Short answer: yes.

How useful of you to post this! (Though I must admit this is a useless thread and deserved as useless an answer)

[Reginald]

Outside of a Clinton landslide, not a chance. It'd require a swing comparable to the one Romney got in WV in 2012. And Oklahoma… isn't exactly becoming Democratic like WV is becoming Republican. Not at all.

The more interesting question is whether she can win a county, as that's not even close to a guarantee. So where are the areas most liable to swing Clinton substantially? This shows where Clinton beat Obama by at least 30 points in the 2008 primary. The darker classes are >35 and >40 percentage points.



I'd imagine this is where we're most likely to see a decent swing, all else being equal. This is the ancestrally D half(ish) of OK, for sure. The southeast of the state swung particularly heavily against Obama in 08, so perhaps Clinton could pick up some ground there. That wouldn't be enough for her to break forty though; it'd have to be accompanied by a swing in OKC and/or Tulsa.

[MATTROSE94]

Probably not. The question right now is if the next Republican candidate will clear 70% in Oklahoma. I don't think that the Democrats should focus too much energy on flipping Oklahoma when there are bigger prizes such as North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia that are somewhat more Democrat-friendly.

[Maxwell]

Probably not. The question right now is if the next Republican candidate will clear 70% in Oklahoma. I don't think that the Democrats should focus too much energy on flipping Oklahoma when there are bigger prizes such as North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia that are somewhat more Democrat-friendly.

I don't think that's likely: Oklahoma is relatively Clinton-friendly.

[BaldEagle1991]

Yes, but 40% is her ceiling in the Sooner State.

[RTX]

No. I think her rural and southern appeal is far overrated. High 30s would be tops.

I could see her winning one of the heavily Native American counties though.

[Adam Griffin]

I'm not sure why everyone is talking about OK swinging so much in presidential elections, particularly within the past ten years; it hasn't:

2000: Gore 38.4%
2004: Kerry 34.4%
2008: Obama 34.4%
2012: Obama 33.2%

Very unlikely that Clinton would do worse than Kerry, but definitely no better than Gore.

[ElectionsGuy]

Bill barely cracked 40% in '96, so I don't see why she can't.

Except that this isn't 1996.

[morgieb]

Not very likely. Gore couldn't crack 40% for example, I think that's her ceiling in Clinton country.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Long answer: yes.
Short answer: yes.

How useful of you to post this! (Though I must admit this is a useless thread and deserved as useless an answer)

[7,052,770]

Not unless the GOP nominates Sarah Palin.

[Mechaman]

No, just no.

Any positive bounce she gets from being Bill Clinton's wife is immediately cancelled out by being Secretary of State under Obama. Very few people like Hillary Clinton around here.  Very few.

[TDAS04]

I don't think so.

[IceSpear]

No.

But she'll do better than Kerry/Obama did, and might win a couple counties.

[SWE]

Obviously not

[Joshgreen]

No, just no.

Any positive bounce she gets from being Bill Clinton's wife is immediately cancelled out by being Secretary of State under Obama. Very few people like Hillary Clinton around here.  Very few.

You anecdotal evidence is reassuring.

[Mechaman]

No, just no.

Any positive bounce she gets from being Bill Clinton's wife is immediately cancelled out by being Secretary of State under Obama. Very few people like Hillary Clinton around here.  Very few.

You anecdotal evidence is reassuring.

A couple of counties might be possible in a landslide election.  However, the argument for 40% is a very tough one to make.  Read Reginald's post in this thread to get a better idea.

Right now she is looking like a strong candidate nationwide.  HOwever, in Oklahoma the Clinton name isn't as gold as many people seem to think it is.

[HAnnA MArin County]

No, just no.

Any positive bounce she gets from being Bill Clinton's wife is immediately cancelled out by being Secretary of State under Obama. Very few people like Hillary Clinton around here.  Very few.

Well there's at least 228,480 people who do like her per her showing in 2008. Yes, I know 2016 isn't going to be 2008, but I wouldn't classify nearly 230,000 people as "very few."

She could possibly win one of the four counties in Eastern Oklahoma/Little Dixie that Gore won: Okmulgee, McIntosh, Muskogee, and Cherokee. This cluster of four counties always seems to be the Democrats' best showing in the state in statewide elections, and by best showing I mean where Democrats can crack over 40 percent of the vote outside of Oklahoma City. 

[Mechaman]

No, just no.

Any positive bounce she gets from being Bill Clinton's wife is immediately cancelled out by being Secretary of State under Obama. Very few people like Hillary Clinton around here.  Very few.

Well there's at least 228,480 people who do like her per her showing in 2008. Yes, I know 2016 isn't going to be 2008, but I wouldn't classify nearly 230,000 people as "very few."

She could possibly win one of the four counties in Eastern Oklahoma/Little Dixie that Gore won: Okmulgee, McIntosh, Muskogee, and Cherokee. This cluster of four counties always seems to be the Democrats' best showing in the state in statewide elections, and by best showing I mean where Democrats can crack over 40 percent of the vote outside of Oklahoma City.  

Yes, nevermind that Oklahoma had back then, and probably still does, more registered Democrats than Republicans.  There are more than a few of those Democrats who are Dan Boren level DINOs.
Being from nearby Missouri I would expect you would know this.

Further Citations:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012#Primary_schedule
42.9% "Other" votes in a year where the President was effectively running unopposed.

Would she do better than Obama?  Yes.  Better than Kerry?  More than likely.  However, unless something fundamentally changes in the next couple of years, I don't see her exceeding Gore's level of support.