Women and Hispanics

[dazzleman]

I'd say a majority of hispanics will vote Democratic in 2008, but overall they are trending Republican.

With women, the divide is really between married, family-oriented women and single women.

Keep in mind that in order to win, Republicans don't need an absolute majority of either group, because they have an overall advantage with men, especially white men.

I think hispanics will vote increasingly Republican as they become more assimilated, and may eventually be around 50/50.  Women may lean slightly Democratic, but a lot depends on the issues.

[dazzleman]

Given that the GOP leads among married women already, and given that the number of older married continues to gain on the number of younger unmarried women, and  given also that the vast majority of unmarried women seek to become married women, we can assume that at some point in time, the GOP will outpoll the Dems in women in general.

Ever heard of divorce?

Generally, women in a healthy relationship with a man are more likely to vote Republican.  Women who are angry at men, for whatever reason, are more likely to vote Democrat.  It's purely anecdotal, but I think it's pretty accurate.

Women favor Democrats because girls are not raised with the drive toward independence that boys are, generally.  Women therefore don't see as much wrong in dependency on government at some level as many men do, in general.  That leans women more in a Democratic direction than men.

[dazzleman]

two rather obvious facts that you conveniently miss:

1-older married women died, and die at a much faster rate than young unmarried ones

True, but older widows rarely change their political affiliation after they are widowed.  Divorced women or never married women lean strongly Democratic, but I think most widows will remain whatever they were when they were married.  Widowhood doesn't have the potential changes on a person's political views that divorce does.