Women and Hispanics
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Women and Hispanics
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Poll
Question: Will the Republicans finally be able to tackle the Hispanic and Women vote in 2008?
#1
Yes, both groups will be GOP.
 
#2
Yes, only Hispanic group will be GOP.
 
#3
Yes, only Female group will be GOP.
 
#4
No, both will still go Democrat.
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 38

Author Topic: Women and Hispanics  (Read 3944 times)
King
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« on: March 25, 2005, 04:22:29 PM »

Both seem to be trending GOP:

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phk
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« Reply #1 on: March 25, 2005, 04:27:14 PM »

Depends on who the Democrats run.

If Richardson is on the ticket.. no.
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Akno21
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« Reply #2 on: March 25, 2005, 05:28:30 PM »

Which groups are trending Dem, I only hear about the ones trending GOP.
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dazzleman
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« Reply #3 on: March 25, 2005, 05:39:24 PM »

I'd say a majority of hispanics will vote Democratic in 2008, but overall they are trending Republican.

With women, the divide is really between married, family-oriented women and single women.

Keep in mind that in order to win, Republicans don't need an absolute majority of either group, because they have an overall advantage with men, especially white men.

I think hispanics will vote increasingly Republican as they become more assimilated, and may eventually be around 50/50.  Women may lean slightly Democratic, but a lot depends on the issues.
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Hitchabrut
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« Reply #4 on: March 25, 2005, 07:23:06 PM »

Both dsemocratic. By 2020, Hispanic vote is GOP.
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King
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« Reply #5 on: March 25, 2005, 11:46:44 PM »

Which groups are trending Dem, I only hear about the ones trending GOP.

Are there any groups trending Dem? Lets see...

  • Homosexuals, but they have always been Dem.
    That is about it...even Catholics and Jews are slightly trending GOP...
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Ebowed
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« Reply #6 on: March 26, 2005, 12:18:09 AM »

It all depends on who's on the ticket.  If the Democrats nominate someone like Kerry again not only will they lose more Hispanics and women (both will go narrowly for Dems but it will get closer), they'll also lose moderate Democrats like me.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #7 on: March 26, 2005, 10:58:39 AM »

Congrats to King for producing one of the most braindead "trend" threads yet seen.
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King
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« Reply #8 on: March 26, 2005, 03:27:07 PM »

Congrats to King for producing one of the most braindead "trend" threads yet seen.

Braindead?  How so?

1992 - Women 6 points below GOP national average
1996 - Women 5 points below
2000 -  Women 4 points below
2004 - Women 3 points below

1992 - Hispanics 12 points below GOP national average
1996 - Hispanics 11 points  below
2000 - Hispanics 10 points below
2004 - Hispanics 7 points below

There is obviously a shift going on...
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nclib
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« Reply #9 on: March 26, 2005, 04:17:09 PM »

Women will only go GOP if the GOP wins a solid victory (unlikely).

Hispanics will still vote Dem but it may be closer.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #10 on: March 26, 2005, 05:10:32 PM »

Congrats to King for producing one of the most braindead "trend" threads yet seen.

Braindead?  How so?

1992 - Women 6 points below GOP national average
1996 - Women 5 points below
2000 -  Women 4 points below
2004 - Women 3 points below

1992 - Hispanics 12 points below GOP national average
1996 - Hispanics 11 points  below
2000 - Hispanics 10 points below
2004 - Hispanics 7 points below

There is obviously a shift going on...

It's called playing silly buggers with statistics. You might as well declare that as Bush won a higher % than 2000 the U.S will "trend" Republican by that % every election in the future.
Thanks for showing up the inane stupidy of obsessive slide ruling though.
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Jake
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« Reply #11 on: March 26, 2005, 05:33:10 PM »

Not exactly.  Now if Bush won the last four elections by a larger margin each year, that is a trend.
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ian
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« Reply #12 on: March 26, 2005, 05:38:27 PM »

No, not for a while.
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Notre Dame rules!
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« Reply #13 on: March 28, 2005, 11:33:12 PM »

Given that the GOP leads among married women already, and given that the number of older married continues to gain on the number of younger unmarried women, and  given also that the vast majority of unmarried women seek to become married women, we can assume that at some point in time, the GOP will outpoll the Dems in women in general.
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A18
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« Reply #14 on: March 28, 2005, 11:36:31 PM »

Women? No. Hispanics? Yes.
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Erc
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« Reply #15 on: March 31, 2005, 12:23:40 AM »

Given that the GOP leads among married women already, and given that the number of older married continues to gain on the number of younger unmarried women, and  given also that the vast majority of unmarried women seek to become married women, we can assume that at some point in time, the GOP will outpoll the Dems in women in general.

Which means either:

A) The Republicans Will Always Win.

B) The Republicans Will Always Win the Popular Vote, But By Some Fluke of Nature, Will Lose the Electoral Vote.

C) The Republicans Will Lose the Male Vote.


:rolleyes:
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jacob_101
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« Reply #16 on: March 31, 2005, 02:43:10 PM »

In a close election, neither.  But both could if the Republican wins by a decent margin.
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dazzleman
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« Reply #17 on: March 31, 2005, 02:48:54 PM »

Given that the GOP leads among married women already, and given that the number of older married continues to gain on the number of younger unmarried women, and  given also that the vast majority of unmarried women seek to become married women, we can assume that at some point in time, the GOP will outpoll the Dems in women in general.

Ever heard of divorce? Smiley

Generally, women in a healthy relationship with a man are more likely to vote Republican.  Women who are angry at men, for whatever reason, are more likely to vote Democrat.  It's purely anecdotal, but I think it's pretty accurate.

Women favor Democrats because girls are not raised with the drive toward independence that boys are, generally.  Women therefore don't see as much wrong in dependency on government at some level as many men do, in general.  That leans women more in a Democratic direction than men.
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they don't love you like i love you
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« Reply #18 on: March 31, 2005, 02:50:43 PM »

Given that the GOP leads among married women already, and given that the number of older married continues to gain on the number of younger unmarried women, and  given also that the vast majority of unmarried women seek to become married women, we can assume that at some point in time, the GOP will outpoll the Dems in women in general.

two rather obvious facts that you conveniently miss:

1-older married women died, and die at a much faster rate than young unmarried ones
2-women who just reach voting age are almost always unmarried
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dazzleman
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« Reply #19 on: March 31, 2005, 02:55:24 PM »


two rather obvious facts that you conveniently miss:

1-older married women died, and die at a much faster rate than young unmarried ones

True, but older widows rarely change their political affiliation after they are widowed.  Divorced women or never married women lean strongly Democratic, but I think most widows will remain whatever they were when they were married.  Widowhood doesn't have the potential changes on a person's political views that divorce does.
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phk
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« Reply #20 on: March 31, 2005, 03:23:41 PM »


two rather obvious facts that you conveniently miss:

1-older married women died, and die at a much faster rate than young unmarried ones

True, but older widows rarely change their political affiliation after they are widowed.  Divorced women or never married women lean strongly Democratic

Why is the South, Republican than?
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BRTD
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« Reply #21 on: April 01, 2005, 12:20:23 AM »


two rather obvious facts that you conveniently miss:

1-older married women died, and die at a much faster rate than young unmarried ones

True, but older widows rarely change their political affiliation after they are widowed.  Divorced women or never married women lean strongly Democratic, but I think most widows will remain whatever they were when they were married.  Widowhood doesn't have the potential changes on a person's political views that divorce does.

no no, it's not widoews that are the issues, it's old married women that die. yet they are replaced in the voter pool by young single women. the fallacy also exposed by this poster is that women magically turn Republican when they get married which is false, Republican women are more likely to be married for a variety of reasons, the cause and effect are mixed up. The logic used in the post is even worse than the original post.

Anyone remember when that electoral-vote.com site had Kerry as the projected winner in Utah? This post, as well as the original post, is basically using the same logic used in that.
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