Which Major Trends/Present Realities Are Most Likely Going To Reverse First

[RTX]

Some of these may seem outlandish and/or overlap, but what happens first:
1. The majority of the South (Texas through Virginia) will vote for a Democrat for President (EV)
2. The majority of the Northeast (Maryland through Maine) will vote for a Republican for President (EV)
3. Blacks will vote at least 20% for the Republican Nominee
4. Whites will vote at least 54% for the Democrat Nominee
5. Hispanics will vote at least 50% for the Republican Nominee
6. One of the West Coast states (WA, OR, CA), votes for a Republican before a Deep-South state (LA, MS, AL) votes for a Democrat

Feel free to add your own.

[eric82oslo]

Definitely option 1, although option 6 isn't too unlikely either.

[Mr. Morden]

Hispanics aren't going to vote 50% for the Republican nominee any time soon, but the GOP will surely rebound among Hispanics at some point in the future, though it depends on who gets included in the term "Hispanic".  Given increasing intermarriage and so forth, you'll see at least a decent share of people who are technically "Hispanic" being more integrated into American culture in such a way that they won't necessarily think of themselves as a minority, just as Irish, Italians, etc. don't think of themselves as a minority in the way that they did back in the 19th century.  As that happens, their voting patterns will get closer to those of whites.

[smoltchanov]

6.

[Flake]

1-5 seems incredibly unlikely. 6 would happen in a Republican landslide.

[fartboy]

The wording of your question is confusing. You're asking which one is least likely to become a reality?

[hopper]

I will take number 1 than number 6.

[Skill and Chance]

For #1, this will probably have happened by 2050:

I think #2 most likely though because the a Republican should win big enough to take Oregon before #1 can happen, barring President Jason Carter or something.  People are also underestimating the potential for #3.  Look how rapidly Catholic bloc voting faded away after Kennedy.

[hopper]

For #1, this will probably have happened by 2050:

I think #2 most likely though because the a Republican should win big enough to take Oregon before #1 can happen, barring President Jason Carter or something.  People are also underestimating the potential for #3.  Look how rapidly Catholic bloc voting faded away after Kennedy.

Mississippi PVI wise hasn't moved in 4 Presidential Cycles. The Dems taking SC would be like the Republicans taking Oregon.

Blacks voting Republican as #3 goes I don't know about that yes more Blacks have moved to the Suburbs but those families have moved from the city where they carry their Dem Party ID to the suburbs. Keep in mind too a lot of Blacks do still live in the cities as well where its a given they will vote for the Dems. I think if the GOP modifies their platform they can get 15-20% of the black vote maybe even go back to where they were in 2004 the GOP can get 10-15% of the black vote. Getting 10-15% of the Black Vote matters in states like VA, NC, GA, OH, maybe even MI and WI.

[Orser67]

6 is the most likely in 2016 (Oregon). By 2030, number 1 is most likely (Virginia+NC+FL+TX). I don't think 5 is completely outlandish, but I really doubt the other three happen anytime soon.

[Hamster]

7. The current common wisdom that the Republican party is doomed by a demographic crisis will dissipate as soon as the next Republican candidate wins the presidency, which we will not have to wait a generation for.

[Non Swing Voter]

1, 5, and 6 are the only ones that even seem plausible.

[Mr. Reactionary]

I'd say 6, then 3, then 4.

[BaconBacon96]

1 and 6 could easily happen, 5 could in the right scenario and I could see 4 as well if the GOP nominates Alan Keyes anytime soon.

[DS0816]

Some of these may seem outlandish and/or overlap, but what happens first:
1. The majority of the South (Texas through Virginia) will vote for a Democrat for President (EV)
2. The majority of the Northeast (Maryland through Maine) will vote for a Republican for President (EV)
3. Blacks will vote at least 20% for the Republican Nominee
4. Whites will vote at least 54% for the Democrat Nominee
5. Hispanics will vote at least 50% for the Republican Nominee
6. One of the West Coast states (WA, OR, CA), votes for a Republican before a Deep-South state (LA, MS, AL) votes for a Democrat

Feel free to add your own.

All of this points to realignments of both major political parties and that the states that are base supporters for either side would follow suit. Realignments are gradual. And they're complex. But what you didn't mention was why there would be realignment of today's two major parties. In fact, none of the Republican posters' fantasies—no doubt derived from a preference for the current Democratic party's base states in many thread about so-called Election Trends—have expressed cogent and compelling arguments for all this to end up happening. Instead, we get subjected to nonsense imaginings.