If Dems lose Senate in 2014, will GOP win Presidency in 2016?

[Mister Mets]

It could also force Obama to veto a lot of legislation.

Which 9 Democrats are going to pass legislation Obama would be forced to veto?

Remember this Senate (probably) no longer has Baucus, Begich, Landrieu, Hagan, Pryor, etc.

Presumably, the 9 most conservative Dems still around would be:

Manchin, Donnelly, McCaskill, Heitkamp, Tester, Warner, King, Casey, and Heinrich.


I think a President Obama in his last two years, desperate to do anything really, is going to go ahead and pass any law Martin Heinrich approves.

If Majority Leader McConnell nuked the filibuster on legislation, I would blow the guy in celebration.

Reid has weakened the filibuster, so that alters discussions of necessary majorities.

With control of the Senate, Republican would also have the advantage of choosing what legislation is brought to the floor. That would force some Democrats in awkward positions when it comes to items with broad support.

It is worth noting that we don't know how man Republicans will be in the Senate in 2015. King has said that he might caucus/ conference with whatever party holds a majority.

If Republicans run the table, they'll end up with a 56 seat majority.

It doesn't guarantee a GOP win, but it does help in a few ways.

First, it's better for the Democrats if the party's reputation is stronger.

Obama is also more restricted with a Republican Senate which limits his ability to get the accomplishments that would raise his approval rating.

It could also force Obama to veto a lot of legislation. If Republicans are smart, they'll force him to veto legislation with broad support. Of course, Republicans can also overreach, which would result in Obama gleefully vetoing unpopular legislation that passed through party line votes. And base disappointment with a Republican led to Congress could also lead to the party nominating someone far-right.

If Republicans win Senate elections in every state Romney won, this would result in the party getting a majority in the Senate. But these states wouldn't be enough to swing a presidential election. Even wins in swing states (which Romney tended to lose) wouldn't demonstrate that the same electorate will show up in a presidential election.

You love to cite the post-WWII history of parties running for 3rd consecutive terms being handicapped.  However, the post-WWII history on congressional and presidential elections suggests just as strongly that an opposition takeover of congress in a midterm helps the incumbent president's party win the next presidential election. 

The examples are: 1946-48, 1954-56, 1986-88, 1994-96, 2006-08 and 2010-12.  We could also suggest that 1982 constitutes an opposition takeover of the House based on conservative Democrats voting with Republicans to pass Reagan's agenda in 1980-82 (although this calls into question whether a liberal Democratic majority operated in 1955-56).  So in 5/6 or 6/7 recent cases, the next presidential election was a robust incumbent party win.

I don't think the figures suggest that losing midterm elections help a party keep the White House.

It is a small sample set consisting of six elections, four involving Presidents who would run as incumbents.

Three of the elections you mentioned were in the first term after a President took the White House for his party. In those cases, Presidents tend to get reelected. There's only been one President who failed to keep the White House for his party for more than a term in over a century.

Truman may also be an incumbent, but he was able to run against a do-nothing Congress, so that would be a precedent that makes Hillary Clinton or whoever Democrats nominate happy.

Only one of the midterms you mentioned was followed by an open presidential election in which the incumbent party kept the White House. It also involved Papa Bush losing over ten percent of Reagan's vote. For him, it was enough to keep the White House for Republicans. That's unlikely to be true of the next Democratic nominee.

I'm not suggesting that Democrats are doomed, and I've listed a few ways the GOP could shoot themselves in the foot with control of the Senate. But I think it would certainly be wrong to interpret a Republican win as a good thing for Democrats.

[SWE]

Doubtful that the senate will tell us much about 2016 because the map is so disproportionally Republican favorable

[pbrower2a]

No. 2010 (and probably 2014) were big GOP wins because the Democratic coalition does not turn out in midterms/off years.

In addition, Hillary is a stronger candidate than any of the GOP presidential candidates could ever hope to be.

The two are not correlated at all, anymore than 2010 signaled a Romney landslide, or 1994 signaled a Dole landslide.

Umm, didn't 2006 signal the Obama landslide in 2008   It certainly gave the Democrats a lot of momentum heading into 2008. 

Hillary certainly has a lot of popularity, and it could be enough to beat any unpopularity with political issues like Obamacare. 

But a generic no-name Democrat like O'Malley, could have a far more difficult time if issues like Obamacare remain unpopular; and Obama's popularity remains below 40%. 

I don't know why "young people and minorities" don't turn out in mid-terms, maybe they just don't care about voting or politics unless there is a cool, handsome bi-racial handsome man running for president.  They didn't really come out for Gore or Kerry, who is to say they will come out for Hillary

1. Hillary Clinton already has the Obama campaign apparatus.

a. That is the slickest campaign apparatus in decades. It is as savvy about the technology of electioneering as ever.

b. The campaign apparatus is not shoring up the President's approval rating. President Obama needs no longer campaign for the Presidency.  Thus the President's approval rating need not be close to 50%.

2. Most of the vulnerable D seats are in the states that Barack Obama lost badly in 2008 and 2012 -- Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia, South Dakota...

3. Although midterm elections usually constrict D voting, Presidential elections usually give a sharp D advantage.

4. So far, President Obama has done nothing that discredits himself or his Party. There are no scandals, no diplomatic or military debacles, and no economic collapse. The President has done nothing to make an economic collapse likely. He isn't Dubya on economics, he isn't Carter in foreign policy, and he isn't Nixon in ethics.

5. Should the Republicans win the Senate, then expect the Republican Party to bring about dozens of pieces of right-wing legislation from a nationwide Right To Work (for much less) law, abolition of the minimum wage law, tax shifts that punish everyone but the super-rich, abolition of welfare, privatization of everything that some monopolistic profiteer could want, educational 'reforms' to impose school prayer and creationism, and maybe wars for profit.

People seeing the prospect of a Christian and Corporate State might decide that such is to be stopped, by elections if necessary and possible because other methods are more dangerous or difficult. 

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

If Dems lose Senate in 1994, will GOP win Presidency in 1996?

If GOP lose Senate in 1986, will Dems win Presidency in 1988?

[milhouse24]

If you believe in the "Keys to the White House" model, then "Party Mandate" is one of the 13 keys, but that one is if the incumbent party gains seats in the House in the midterms. The Senate is different because only 1/3 are up, and this year is a particularly bad one for the dems with so many red state seats to defend. In 2016 the shoe will be on the other foot with blue state GOPers defending.

So in short, no the 2016 Senate race isn't all that indicative.

I think Liberals and Democrats are really deluding themselves at how unpopular Obamacare is across the country.  Some polls have Obamacare at 35% popularity, and Obama is at 41% approval in the NBC/WSJ poll.  

While I personally perceive Obama as being very likeable and having a likeable personality, I am very surprised at how badly his administration and policies are viewed across the country.  

If Mitt Romney were more sensitive to the unemployed and blue collar workers, he would have done much better and the election would have been far closer.  Obama and the Democrats are very vulnerable now.  Perhaps not on the surface with his smiling appearance, but there is a silent undercurrent of dissatisfaction with Obamacare and other things.  

I think Hillary or O'Malley will have a very difficult time winning in 2016.  It will be much closer despite demographic shifts favoring hispanic voters.  The anti-Obamacare sentiment is slowly building, and while its not as strong as the anti-Iraq movement in 2006-2008, it may be enough to push the Democrats out of the white house.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Plus Mitt was a strong conservative in immigration, which didn't help with Hispanics.
The next GOP nominee will have to avoid that. Even Scott Walker knew Romney made a huge mistake when Romney said the deportation comment.

[Yank2133]

If you believe in the "Keys to the White House" model, then "Party Mandate" is one of the 13 keys, but that one is if the incumbent party gains seats in the House in the midterms. The Senate is different because only 1/3 are up, and this year is a particularly bad one for the dems with so many red state seats to defend. In 2016 the shoe will be on the other foot with blue state GOPers defending.

So in short, no the 2016 Senate race isn't all that indicative.

I think Liberals and Democrats are really deluding themselves at how unpopular Obamacare is across the country.  Some polls have Obamacare at 35% popularity, and Obama is at 41% approval in the NBC/WSJ poll.  

While I personally perceive Obama as being very likeable and having a likeable personality, I am very surprised at how badly his administration and policies are viewed across the country.  

If Mitt Romney were more sensitive to the unemployed and blue collar workers, he would have done much better and the election would have been far closer.  Obama and the Democrats are very vulnerable now.  Perhaps not on the surface with his smiling appearance, but there is a silent undercurrent of dissatisfaction with Obamacare and other things.  

I think Hillary or O'Malley will have a very difficult time winning in 2016.  It will be much closer despite demographic shifts favoring hispanic voters.  The anti-Obamacare sentiment is slowly building, and while its not as strong as the anti-Iraq movement in 2006-2008, it may be enough to push the Democrats out of the white house.

If Obamacare is such an albatross, why do polls after polls have people want to keep it and improve on it? The anti-Obamacare sentiment is coming from people from the right, who will never vote for Democrats anyway.

Anyway barring any kind of scandal or massive screw up by Obama in the next two years, the Democrats are going to win the WH in 2016.

[Skill and Chance]

You love to cite the post-WWII history of parties running for 3rd consecutive terms being handicapped.  However, the post-WWII history on congressional and presidential elections suggests just as strongly that an opposition takeover of congress in a midterm helps the incumbent president's party win the next presidential election. 

The examples are: 1946-48, 1954-56, 1986-88, 1994-96, 2006-08 and 2010-12.  We could also suggest that 1982 constitutes an opposition takeover of the House based on conservative Democrats voting with Republicans to pass Reagan's agenda in 1980-82 (although this calls into question whether a liberal Democratic majority operated in 1955-56).  So in 5/6 or 6/7 recent cases, the next presidential election was a robust incumbent party win.
[/quote]I don't think the figures suggest that losing midterm elections help a party keep the White House.

It is a small sample set consisting of six elections, four involving Presidents who would run as incumbents.
[/quote]

It may be that these numbers mean nothing.  But if we throw out the idea of an opposition congress bonus for the president's party, we also need to throw out the 3rd(+) term curse because it's based on the same small number of occurrences in the same time period: 6 of 8 candidates running to keep an incumbent party in the White House for at least 3 terms have lost since WWII, which is the same as what happens when you consider opposite party Congressional takeovers- 5 of 7 or 6 of 8 times since WWII the incumbent's party won.  Either both are relevant or neither is.

[milhouse24]

If Obamacare is such an albatross, why do polls after polls have people want to keep it and improve on it? The anti-Obamacare sentiment is coming from people from the right, who will never vote for Democrats anyway.

Anyway barring any kind of scandal or massive screw up by Obama in the next two years, the Democrats are going to win the WH in 2016.

Just keep telling yourself Obamacare is popular. 
Besides, nothing is really being "fixed" in Obamacare - no Democrat has made suggestions on how to "actually fix Obamacare"

Here's a serious question: if Liberal voters and Democrat voters are so smart and so loyal to the Democrat Party, then how come the "Democrat voters" didn't show up in the special election in Florida ?

Sink is not as attractive as Obama, but wouldn't Democrat voters want to show their support for Obamacare and the Dem Party, instead of staying home and watching the Voice? 

Hillary is not going to win if stoners, hipsters, and minorities forget to vote.

[SWE]

If Obamacare is such an albatross, why do polls after polls have people want to keep it and improve on it? The anti-Obamacare sentiment is coming from people from the right, who will never vote for Democrats anyway.

Anyway barring any kind of scandal or massive screw up by Obama in the next two years, the Democrats are going to win the WH in 2016.

Just keep telling yourself Obamacare is popular. 

http://kff.org/health-reform/poll-finding/kaiser-health-tracking-poll-january-2014/

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http://www.politico.com/story/2014/01/brian-schweitzer-obamacare-102204.html

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Why didn't Republicans show up to vote in the Special Senate elections in Mass and NJ?

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Are you just trolling here or?

[Yank2133]

If Obamacare is such an albatross, why do polls after polls have people want to keep it and improve on it? The anti-Obamacare sentiment is coming from people from the right, who will never vote for Democrats anyway.

Anyway barring any kind of scandal or massive screw up by Obama in the next two years, the Democrats are going to win the WH in 2016.

Just keep telling yourself Obamacare is popular.  
Besides, nothing is really being "fixed" in Obamacare - no Democrat has made suggestions on how to "actually fix Obamacare"

Here's a serious question: if Liberal voters and Democrat voters are so smart and so loyal to the Democrat Party, then how come the "Democrat voters" didn't show up in the special election in Florida ?

Sink is not as attractive as Obama, but wouldn't Democrat voters want to show their support for Obamacare and the Dem Party, instead of staying home and watching the Voice?  

Hillary is not going to win if stoners, hipsters, and minorities forget to vote.

I never said the law is popular, my point is if it is this huge albatross, why aren't people clamoring to repeal it? And Democrats always have issues in mid-term elections, their base(young, minorities, disenfranchised etc.) just don't show up for mid-term elections, while the GOP have an older, whiter base that is more likely to show up to the polls.

I mean how bad is your memory? We just saw this play out in 2010 and Obamacare proved to be a non-issue two years later. So why the hell would it be an issue in 2016, when the law has in place for well over 3 years now?

[RTX]

If you believe in the "Keys to the White House" model, then "Party Mandate" is one of the 13 keys, but that one is if the incumbent party gains seats in the House in the midterms. The Senate is different because only 1/3 are up, and this year is a particularly bad one for the dems with so many red state seats to defend. In 2016 the shoe will be on the other foot with blue state GOPers defending.

So in short, no the 2016 Senate race isn't all that indicative.

I think Liberals and Democrats are really deluding themselves at how unpopular Obamacare is across the country.  Some polls have Obamacare at 35% popularity, and Obama is at 41% approval in the NBC/WSJ poll.  

While I personally perceive Obama as being very likeable and having a likeable personality, I am very surprised at how badly his administration and policies are viewed across the country.  

If Mitt Romney were more sensitive to the unemployed and blue collar workers, he would have done much better and the election would have been far closer.  Obama and the Democrats are very vulnerable now.  Perhaps not on the surface with his smiling appearance, but there is a silent undercurrent of dissatisfaction with Obamacare and other things.  

I think Hillary or O'Malley will have a very difficult time winning in 2016.  It will be much closer despite demographic shifts favoring hispanic voters.  The anti-Obamacare sentiment is slowly building, and while its not as strong as the anti-Iraq movement in 2006-2008, it may be enough to push the Democrats out of the white house.

If Obamacare is such an albatross, why do polls after polls have people want to keep it and improve on it? The anti-Obamacare sentiment is coming from people from the right, who will never vote for Democrats anyway.

Anyway barring any kind of scandal or massive screw up by Obama in the next two years, the Democrats are going to win the WH in 2016.

He wouldn't feel the need to go on Top 40 radio or make internet videos to try and sell it if the anti-Obamacare sentiment wasn't substantial and/or solely from the right

[Yank2133]

If you believe in the "Keys to the White House" model, then "Party Mandate" is one of the 13 keys, but that one is if the incumbent party gains seats in the House in the midterms. The Senate is different because only 1/3 are up, and this year is a particularly bad one for the dems with so many red state seats to defend. In 2016 the shoe will be on the other foot with blue state GOPers defending.

So in short, no the 2016 Senate race isn't all that indicative.

I think Liberals and Democrats are really deluding themselves at how unpopular Obamacare is across the country.  Some polls have Obamacare at 35% popularity, and Obama is at 41% approval in the NBC/WSJ poll.  

While I personally perceive Obama as being very likeable and having a likeable personality, I am very surprised at how badly his administration and policies are viewed across the country.  

If Mitt Romney were more sensitive to the unemployed and blue collar workers, he would have done much better and the election would have been far closer.  Obama and the Democrats are very vulnerable now.  Perhaps not on the surface with his smiling appearance, but there is a silent undercurrent of dissatisfaction with Obamacare and other things.  

I think Hillary or O'Malley will have a very difficult time winning in 2016.  It will be much closer despite demographic shifts favoring hispanic voters.  The anti-Obamacare sentiment is slowly building, and while its not as strong as the anti-Iraq movement in 2006-2008, it may be enough to push the Democrats out of the white house.

If Obamacare is such an albatross, why do polls after polls have people want to keep it and improve on it? The anti-Obamacare sentiment is coming from people from the right, who will never vote for Democrats anyway.

Anyway barring any kind of scandal or massive screw up by Obama in the next two years, the Democrats are going to win the WH in 2016.

He wouldn't feel the need to go on Top 40 radio or make internet videos to try and sell it if the anti-Obamacare sentiment wasn't substantial and/or solely from the right

That has more to do with the deadline for signups for Obamacare being March 31st then it does for public sentiment.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

The reason why Obamacare will have a bigger effect in the 2016 election will be because of how it will be actually available to everyone. And it could turn out to be a popular program in 2016, both parties are betting on the program now.

[milhouse24]

If Obamacare is such an albatross, why do polls after polls have people want to keep it and improve on it? The anti-Obamacare sentiment is coming from people from the right, who will never vote for Democrats anyway.

Anyway barring any kind of scandal or massive screw up by Obama in the next two years, the Democrats are going to win the WH in 2016.

Just keep telling yourself Obamacare is popular. 

http://kff.org/health-reform/poll-finding/kaiser-health-tracking-poll-january-2014/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/01/brian-schweitzer-obamacare-102204.html

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Why didn't Republicans show up to vote in the Special Senate elections in Mass and NJ?

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Are you just trolling here or?

Hahaha, you quoted schweitzer, someone who is not even in office at any level.  If he was in the senate, I would take schweitzer seriously, but he has as much power now as Arnold Kennedy-Schwartzenegger.  

This is Obama and Sebilus exact solution to Obamacare --->  Delay mandates and handout waivers until 2016

Now isn't it kinda weird that Obama is letting people and SB's delay the mandate.  Could he be delaying the mandate because it helps Democrats in the elections.  

The Obamacare deadline is this month ---> so Citizens who feel the pain of the higher premiums will be upset and vote against Democrats in November 2014 and November 2016

[milhouse24]

If Obamacare is such an albatross, why do polls after polls have people want to keep it and improve on it? The anti-Obamacare sentiment is coming from people from the right, who will never vote for Democrats anyway.

Anyway barring any kind of scandal or massive screw up by Obama in the next two years, the Democrats are going to win the WH in 2016.

Just keep telling yourself Obamacare is popular.  
Besides, nothing is really being "fixed" in Obamacare - no Democrat has made suggestions on how to "actually fix Obamacare"

Here's a serious question: if Liberal voters and Democrat voters are so smart and so loyal to the Democrat Party, then how come the "Democrat voters" didn't show up in the special election in Florida ?

Sink is not as attractive as Obama, but wouldn't Democrat voters want to show their support for Obamacare and the Dem Party, instead of staying home and watching the Voice?  

Hillary is not going to win if stoners, hipsters, and minorities forget to vote.

I never said the law is popular, my point is if it is this huge albatross, why aren't people clamoring to repeal it? And Democrats always have issues in mid-term elections, their base(young, minorities, disenfranchised etc.) just don't show up for mid-term elections, while the GOP have an older, whiter base that is more likely to show up to the polls.

I mean how bad is your memory? We just saw this play out in 2010 and Obamacare proved to be a non-issue two years later. So why the hell would it be an issue in 2016, when the law has in place for well over 3 years now?

How can the Democrat Party claim they have the support of the People, when their own voters can't be bothered to show up to midterm elections?  Doesn't that strike you as non-committal to Congressional Democrats?  If I were a Democrat Senator I would be pissed that these young people and minorities aren't bothering to show up to vote. 

Obamacare is mandatory as of 2014, so citizens won't feel the pain of higher premiums until 2014.  If Obamacare is so popular, then why did Democrats lose so big in 2010

I think Obamacare contributed to Obama losing 4 million voters in 2010.  But also Romney ran a bad campaign, and Obama has a nicer smile and personality (he gets the young ladies and young men excited to vote for him).  Also, Black and Hispanic voters came out for Obama and not the other (white) democrats.  A drop in Black and Hispanic turnout would have hurt Obama significantly.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yeah, Democrats won in 1988, Republicans in 1996.

Oh wait.

[Yank2133]

If Obamacare is such an albatross, why do polls after polls have people want to keep it and improve on it? The anti-Obamacare sentiment is coming from people from the right, who will never vote for Democrats anyway.

Anyway barring any kind of scandal or massive screw up by Obama in the next two years, the Democrats are going to win the WH in 2016.

Just keep telling yourself Obamacare is popular.  
Besides, nothing is really being "fixed" in Obamacare - no Democrat has made suggestions on how to "actually fix Obamacare"

Here's a serious question: if Liberal voters and Democrat voters are so smart and so loyal to the Democrat Party, then how come the "Democrat voters" didn't show up in the special election in Florida ?

Sink is not as attractive as Obama, but wouldn't Democrat voters want to show their support for Obamacare and the Dem Party, instead of staying home and watching the Voice?  

Hillary is not going to win if stoners, hipsters, and minorities forget to vote.

I never said the law is popular, my point is if it is this huge albatross, why aren't people clamoring to repeal it? And Democrats always have issues in mid-term elections, their base(young, minorities, disenfranchised etc.) just don't show up for mid-term elections, while the GOP have an older, whiter base that is more likely to show up to the polls.

I mean how bad is your memory? We just saw this play out in 2010 and Obamacare proved to be a non-issue two years later. So why the hell would it be an issue in 2016, when the law has in place for well over 3 years now?

How can the Democrat Party claim they have the support of the People, when their own voters can't be bothered to show up to midterm elections?  Doesn't that strike you as non-committal to Congressional Democrats?  If I were a Democrat Senator I would be pissed that these young people and minorities aren't bothering to show up to vote. 

Obamacare is mandatory as of 2014, so citizens won't feel the pain of higher premiums until 2014.  If Obamacare is so popular, then why did Democrats lose so big in 2010

I think Obamacare contributed to Obama losing 4 million voters in 2010.  But also Romney ran a bad campaign, and Obama has a nicer smile and personality (he gets the young ladies and young men excited to vote for him).  Also, Black and Hispanic voters came out for Obama and not the other (white) democrats.  A drop in Black and Hispanic turnout would have hurt Obama significantly.

Obama lost votes in 2012 because he was an incumbent,  not because of Obamacare. If the GOP couldn't use Obamacare to win in 2012, then it isn't going to work in 2016. I mean we already have poll after poll showing that people are against repeal, and this just a few months after a terrible debut.

[milhouse24]

If Obamacare is such an albatross, why do polls after polls have people want to keep it and improve on it? The anti-Obamacare sentiment is coming from people from the right, who will never vote for Democrats anyway.

Anyway barring any kind of scandal or massive screw up by Obama in the next two years, the Democrats are going to win the WH in 2016.

Just keep telling yourself Obamacare is popular.  
Besides, nothing is really being "fixed" in Obamacare - no Democrat has made suggestions on how to "actually fix Obamacare"

Here's a serious question: if Liberal voters and Democrat voters are so smart and so loyal to the Democrat Party, then how come the "Democrat voters" didn't show up in the special election in Florida ?

Sink is not as attractive as Obama, but wouldn't Democrat voters want to show their support for Obamacare and the Dem Party, instead of staying home and watching the Voice?  

Hillary is not going to win if stoners, hipsters, and minorities forget to vote.

I never said the law is popular, my point is if it is this huge albatross, why aren't people clamoring to repeal it? And Democrats always have issues in mid-term elections, their base(young, minorities, disenfranchised etc.) just don't show up for mid-term elections, while the GOP have an older, whiter base that is more likely to show up to the polls.

I mean how bad is your memory? We just saw this play out in 2010 and Obamacare proved to be a non-issue two years later. So why the hell would it be an issue in 2016, when the law has in place for well over 3 years now?

How can the Democrat Party claim they have the support of the People, when their own voters can't be bothered to show up to midterm elections?  Doesn't that strike you as non-committal to Congressional Democrats?  If I were a Democrat Senator I would be pissed that these young people and minorities aren't bothering to show up to vote. 

Obamacare is mandatory as of 2014, so citizens won't feel the pain of higher premiums until 2014.  If Obamacare is so popular, then why did Democrats lose so big in 2010

I think Obamacare contributed to Obama losing 4 million voters in 2010.  But also Romney ran a bad campaign, and Obama has a nicer smile and personality (he gets the young ladies and young men excited to vote for him).  Also, Black and Hispanic voters came out for Obama and not the other (white) democrats.  A drop in Black and Hispanic turnout would have hurt Obama significantly.

Obama lost votes in 2012 because he was an incumbent,  not because of Obamacare. If the GOP couldn't use Obamacare to win in 2012, then it isn't going to work in 2016. I mean we already have poll after poll showing that people are against repeal, and this just a few months after a terrible debut.

Hahaha, Obama is the ONLY incumbent to actually LOSE voters in a re-election victory.  (Not counting FDR's 3rd term).  You are admitting that Obama IS LESS POPULAR IN 2012 than in 2008. 
Again, Obamacare wasn't implemented until March 2014, so there is still more time for people to get angry at paying higher premiums.  You don't seem to understand or comprehend that people get mad when they have to pay more for insurance (than the cheaper plan they had before). 

[milhouse24]

Yeah, Democrats won in 1988, Republicans in 1996.

Oh wait.

Yeah, Democrats won in 2006.

[milhouse24]

If Dems lose Senate in 1994, will GOP win Presidency in 1996?

If GOP lose Senate in 1986, will Dems win Presidency in 1988?

If GOP lose Senate in 2006, will dems win presidency in 2008?

[RTX]

If you believe in the "Keys to the White House" model, then "Party Mandate" is one of the 13 keys, but that one is if the incumbent party gains seats in the House in the midterms. The Senate is different because only 1/3 are up, and this year is a particularly bad one for the dems with so many red state seats to defend. In 2016 the shoe will be on the other foot with blue state GOPers defending.

So in short, no the 2016 Senate race isn't all that indicative.

I think Liberals and Democrats are really deluding themselves at how unpopular Obamacare is across the country.  Some polls have Obamacare at 35% popularity, and Obama is at 41% approval in the NBC/WSJ poll.  

While I personally perceive Obama as being very likeable and having a likeable personality, I am very surprised at how badly his administration and policies are viewed across the country.  

If Mitt Romney were more sensitive to the unemployed and blue collar workers, he would have done much better and the election would have been far closer.  Obama and the Democrats are very vulnerable now.  Perhaps not on the surface with his smiling appearance, but there is a silent undercurrent of dissatisfaction with Obamacare and other things.  

I think Hillary or O'Malley will have a very difficult time winning in 2016.  It will be much closer despite demographic shifts favoring hispanic voters.  The anti-Obamacare sentiment is slowly building, and while its not as strong as the anti-Iraq movement in 2006-2008, it may be enough to push the Democrats out of the white house.

If Obamacare is such an albatross, why do polls after polls have people want to keep it and improve on it? The anti-Obamacare sentiment is coming from people from the right, who will never vote for Democrats anyway.

Anyway barring any kind of scandal or massive screw up by Obama in the next two years, the Democrats are going to win the WH in 2016.

He wouldn't feel the need to go on Top 40 radio or make internet videos to try and sell it if the anti-Obamacare sentiment wasn't substantial and/or solely from the right

That has more to do with the deadline for signups for Obamacare being March 31st then it does for public sentiment.

It seems very desperate. If 'x' number (whatever that may be) of young people had originally signed up, he wouldn't be blatantly pandering so much.

[SWE]

If Obamacare is such an albatross, why do polls after polls have people want to keep it and improve on it? The anti-Obamacare sentiment is coming from people from the right, who will never vote for Democrats anyway.

Anyway barring any kind of scandal or massive screw up by Obama in the next two years, the Democrats are going to win the WH in 2016.

Just keep telling yourself Obamacare is popular.  
Besides, nothing is really being "fixed" in Obamacare - no Democrat has made suggestions on how to "actually fix Obamacare"

Here's a serious question: if Liberal voters and Democrat voters are so smart and so loyal to the Democrat Party, then how come the "Democrat voters" didn't show up in the special election in Florida ?

Sink is not as attractive as Obama, but wouldn't Democrat voters want to show their support for Obamacare and the Dem Party, instead of staying home and watching the Voice?  

Hillary is not going to win if stoners, hipsters, and minorities forget to vote.

I never said the law is popular, my point is if it is this huge albatross, why aren't people clamoring to repeal it? And Democrats always have issues in mid-term elections, their base(young, minorities, disenfranchised etc.) just don't show up for mid-term elections, while the GOP have an older, whiter base that is more likely to show up to the polls.

I mean how bad is your memory? We just saw this play out in 2010 and Obamacare proved to be a non-issue two years later. So why the hell would it be an issue in 2016, when the law has in place for well over 3 years now?

How can the Democrat Party claim they have the support of the People, when their own voters can't be bothered to show up to midterm elections?  Doesn't that strike you as non-committal to Congressional Democrats?  If I were a Democrat Senator I would be pissed that these young people and minorities aren't bothering to show up to vote. 

Obamacare is mandatory as of 2014, so citizens won't feel the pain of higher premiums until 2014.  If Obamacare is so popular, then why did Democrats lose so big in 2010

I think Obamacare contributed to Obama losing 4 million voters in 2010.  But also Romney ran a bad campaign, and Obama has a nicer smile and personality (he gets the young ladies and young men excited to vote for him).  Also, Black and Hispanic voters came out for Obama and not the other (white) democrats.  A drop in Black and Hispanic turnout would have hurt Obama significantly.

Obama lost votes in 2012 because he was an incumbent,  not because of Obamacare. If the GOP couldn't use Obamacare to win in 2012, then it isn't going to work in 2016. I mean we already have poll after poll showing that people are against repeal, and this just a few months after a terrible debut.

Hahaha, Obama is the ONLY incumbent to actually LOSE voters in a re-election victory.  (Not counting FDR's 3rd term).  You are admitting that Obama IS LESS POPULAR IN 2012 than in 2008. 

"Obama is the only incumbent to lose votes, as long as you don't count that other president who lost vote and proves my claim wrong."

[IceSpear]

If Dems lose Senate in 1994, will GOP win Presidency in 1996?

If GOP lose Senate in 1986, will Dems win Presidency in 1988?

If GOP lose Senate in 2006, will dems win presidency in 2008?

Correlation does not equal causation, for one thing. Secondly, the reasons why the GOP lost Congress in 2006 and the presidency in 2008 were not identical (2006 had much more to do with the Iraq quagmire, 2008 was much more about the financial collapse and Bush's deep unpopularity).

[milhouse24]

If Obamacare is such an albatross, why do polls after polls have people want to keep it and improve on it? The anti-Obamacare sentiment is coming from people from the right, who will never vote for Democrats anyway.

Anyway barring any kind of scandal or massive screw up by Obama in the next two years, the Democrats are going to win the WH in 2016.

Just keep telling yourself Obamacare is popular.  
Besides, nothing is really being "fixed" in Obamacare - no Democrat has made suggestions on how to "actually fix Obamacare"

Here's a serious question: if Liberal voters and Democrat voters are so smart and so loyal to the Democrat Party, then how come the "Democrat voters" didn't show up in the special election in Florida ?

Sink is not as attractive as Obama, but wouldn't Democrat voters want to show their support for Obamacare and the Dem Party, instead of staying home and watching the Voice?  

Hillary is not going to win if stoners, hipsters, and minorities forget to vote.

I never said the law is popular, my point is if it is this huge albatross, why aren't people clamoring to repeal it? And Democrats always have issues in mid-term elections, their base(young, minorities, disenfranchised etc.) just don't show up for mid-term elections, while the GOP have an older, whiter base that is more likely to show up to the polls.

I mean how bad is your memory? We just saw this play out in 2010 and Obamacare proved to be a non-issue two years later. So why the hell would it be an issue in 2016, when the law has in place for well over 3 years now?

How can the Democrat Party claim they have the support of the People, when their own voters can't be bothered to show up to midterm elections?  Doesn't that strike you as non-committal to Congressional Democrats?  If I were a Democrat Senator I would be pissed that these young people and minorities aren't bothering to show up to vote. 

Obamacare is mandatory as of 2014, so citizens won't feel the pain of higher premiums until 2014.  If Obamacare is so popular, then why did Democrats lose so big in 2010

I think Obamacare contributed to Obama losing 4 million voters in 2010.  But also Romney ran a bad campaign, and Obama has a nicer smile and personality (he gets the young ladies and young men excited to vote for him).  Also, Black and Hispanic voters came out for Obama and not the other (white) democrats.  A drop in Black and Hispanic turnout would have hurt Obama significantly.

Obama lost votes in 2012 because he was an incumbent,  not because of Obamacare. If the GOP couldn't use Obamacare to win in 2012, then it isn't going to work in 2016. I mean we already have poll after poll showing that people are against repeal, and this just a few months after a terrible debut.

Hahaha, Obama is the ONLY incumbent to actually LOSE voters in a re-election victory.  (Not counting FDR's 3rd term).  You are admitting that Obama IS LESS POPULAR IN 2012 than in 2008. 

"Obama is the only incumbent to lose votes, as long as you don't count that other president who lost vote and proves my claim wrong."

Hahaha, you mean the "dictator" FDR's 3rd term - that was eventually ruled unconstitutional Newsflash - Presidents are now only allowed 2 terms.  FDR became a dictator, plain and simple, and Americans rightfully voted for a constitutional amendment because of what FDR did.  I bet Democrats back then would have voted against the amendment for a 3rd term.