|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 03, 2020, 09:46:29 pm
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  A fair assumption
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: A fair assumption  (Read 2905 times)
MaC
Milk_and_cereal
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,798


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: March 23, 2005, 11:51:56 pm »

Would it be fair to say...

Democrats do best in presidential elections in their home state.

Republicans do best in presidential elections in Utah
Logged
Gabu
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,403
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.32, S: -6.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2005, 11:58:22 pm »

Would it be fair to say...

Democrats do best in presidential elections in their home state.

Republicans do best in presidential elections in Utah

I'd say the first would depend on the home state.  A Democrat from, say, North Carolina would probably do better in Vermont than North Carolina.
Logged
phk
phknrocket1k
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,910


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: March 24, 2005, 12:27:33 am »

Would it be fair to say...

Democrats do best in presidential elections in their home state.

Only on how much local pride the candidate has.
Logged
muon2
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,500


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: March 26, 2005, 04:33:29 pm »

Would it be fair to say...

Democrats do best in presidential elections in their home state.
Not according to Al Gore. Smiley
Logged
MaC
Milk_and_cereal
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,798


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: March 26, 2005, 06:26:23 pm »

well yeah, I mean he is the exception.  But consider this: Clinton did best in 1992 in Arkansas.  Georgia was Carter's biggest state.  Mondale only won his home state.  Kerry did best in his home state. 
Bob Dole did best in Utah, as did George W. Bush.  I think Reagan also did, in at least one election.
Logged
dazzleman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,784
Political Matrix
E: 1.88, S: 1.59

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: March 26, 2005, 06:31:41 pm »

Would it be fair to say...

Democrats do best in presidential elections in their home state.

Republicans do best in presidential elections in Utah

not in the case of Al Gore....
Logged
phk
phknrocket1k
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,910


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: March 26, 2005, 07:58:55 pm »

well yeah, I mean he is the exception.  But consider this: Clinton did best in 1992 in Arkansas.  Georgia was Carter's biggest state.  Mondale only won his home state.  Kerry did best in his home state. 
Bob Dole did best in Utah, as did George W. Bush.  I think Reagan also did, in at least one election.

It only depends on how popular they are there.
Logged
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 38,214
United States


P

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: March 26, 2005, 08:10:16 pm »

Gore had spent eight years as VP in which he didn’t make any noticable effort to retain his Tennesseeness.  I wouldn’t consider Tennessee his home state any more than I would consider New York to be Hillary’s home state.
Logged
dazzleman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,784
Political Matrix
E: 1.88, S: 1.59

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: March 26, 2005, 08:48:18 pm »

Gore had spent eight years as VP in which he didn’t make any noticable effort to retain his Tennesseeness.  I wouldn’t consider Tennessee his home state any more than I would consider New York to be Hillary’s home state.

Well, at least Gore had slept in something other than a hotel within the state before he ran for president.  But I see your point.  He really didn't even grow up there, but officially that was his home state (nobody is going to use DC).

My opinion is that the Lewinsky scandal, and Gore's over-the-top defense of Clinton with respect to that scandal, cost Gore the southern states like Tennessee and Arkansas that Clinton had won in 1996.  He lost his southern appeal by backing Clinton's adultery.  At least that's my theory on why those states flipped.
Logged
phk
phknrocket1k
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,910


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: March 26, 2005, 08:55:35 pm »
« Edited: March 26, 2005, 08:59:02 pm by Marxism-Leninism-Maoism »

Gore had spent eight years as VP in which he didn’t make any noticable effort to retain his Tennesseeness.  I wouldn’t consider Tennessee his home state any more than I would consider New York to be Hillary’s home state.

Well, at least Gore had slept in something other than a hotel within the state before he ran for president.  But I see your point.  He really didn't even grow up there, but officially that was his home state (nobody is going to use DC).

My opinion is that the Lewinsky scandal, and Gore's over-the-top defense of Clinton with respect to that scandal, cost Gore the southern states like Tennessee and Arkansas that Clinton had won in 1996.  He lost his southern appeal by backing Clinton's adultery.  At least that's my theory on why those states flipped.

Gun Control and wedge-issues. Southerners commit adultery more often than thier Northern counterparts.

By 2000 most people had moved on.
Logged
Clamdick McClaw
HockeyDude
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,076
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: March 26, 2005, 09:59:33 pm »

Gore's home state was DC, and that was his best "state".  So, yes, it doesn seem like that's what usually happens. 
Logged
dazzleman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,784
Political Matrix
E: 1.88, S: 1.59

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: March 27, 2005, 08:54:34 am »

Southerners commit adultery more often than thier Northern counterparts.


You may be right about that, but they still a lot less likely to vote for someone who does it, or supports it.  I believe that by 2000, enough southerners had not moved on from the Lewinsky thing to cost Gore the electoral votes of all the southern states that had voted for Clinton.  There was no other objective reason for those states to flip from 1996 to 2000.

And Clinton left the presidency with very low personal approval ratings.  That doesn't imply that people moved on; they simply compartmentalized to some degree personal conduct from performance in office.  Southerners were less likely to compartmentalize.
Logged
HamRadioRocks
jhsu
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 503


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: March 27, 2005, 12:48:59 pm »

If Gore wasn't in touch with Tennessee, then how did he get elected to represent the state in the Senate?

If gun control and abortion cost Gore Tennessee, Arkansas, West Virginia, etc., then why didn't those issues cost Clinton those states in 1996?

And why should Lewinskygate have affected Gore?  The Republican fixation on it actually backfired in the 1998 elections.  And it was Clinton who received oral sex from Lewinsky, not Gore.
Logged
Clamdick McClaw
HockeyDude
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,076
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: March 27, 2005, 01:43:19 pm »

If Gore wasn't in touch with Tennessee, then how did he get elected to represent the state in the Senate?

If gun control and abortion cost Gore Tennessee, Arkansas, West Virginia, etc., then why didn't those issues cost Clinton those states in 1996?

And why should Lewinskygate have affected Gore?  The Republican fixation on it actually backfired in the 1998 elections.  And it was Clinton who received oral sex from Lewinsky, not Gore.

the GOP simply started the "we are the party of moral values" BS that they've continued until today.  Unfortunately, it works quite well for them. 
Logged
phk
phknrocket1k
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,910


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: March 27, 2005, 01:44:31 pm »

Southerners commit adultery more often than thier Northern counterparts.


You may be right about that, but they still a lot less likely to vote for someone who does it, or supports it.  I believe that by 2000, enough southerners had not moved on from the Lewinsky thing to cost Gore the electoral votes of all the southern states that had voted for Clinton.  There was no other objective reason for those states to flip from 1996 to 2000.

Perot played a factor.  

In reality, Clinton only had a shot at 4 Southern states.

LA, AR(he is from there), [WV, FL] <-- these states aren't "sufficiently" Southern either.

Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,602


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: April 05, 2005, 04:34:27 am »

The key point to make is that Clinton was a Southerner. And a moderate. Now, a Southern Democrat who isn't a raging liberal will do well in the South, still (or at least would still by the mid-90s). Perot didn't do that well in the SOuth, so it isn't an effect of him so much either.

Gore was not a Southern candidate the way CLinton was. You can say what you want about Clinton, but he WAS Southern, he had it in his blood in a way Gore never did. That is most of it. Secondly, Bush is a Southerner in way that Dole or his father certainly wasn't. I think that if Giuliani would run against a real Southern Democrat in 2008 several Southern states could swing back.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,602


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: April 05, 2005, 04:40:15 am »

Actually, you can see the anti-Democrat trend in the south as early as in Clinton's reelection. He lost Georgia which hasn't been close to going Democratic ever since. He also lost ground in Kentucky and Tennessee, despite increasing his nation-wide margin.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines