AZ-PPP: Basically a tossup, many undecided
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  AZ-PPP: Basically a tossup, many undecided
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Author Topic: AZ-PPP: Basically a tossup, many undecided  (Read 1066 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: March 04, 2014, 01:15:53 PM »

Moving on to the Governor's race for this year, it looks pretty wide open for both the Republican primary and the general election. The leader for the GOP nomination is 'undecided' at 34%. 5 candidates have measurable amounts of support at this point- Ken Bennett at 20%, Christine Jones at 16%, Scott Smith at 12%, Andrew Thomas at 9%, and Doug Ducey at 6%. Al Melvin, John Molina, and Frank Riggs all register at 1% in the poll.

The high level of indecision among GOP primary voters speaks to what unknowns these candidates are with voters in the state. Thomas is the best known, but even he has just 40% name recognition. Despite serving in statewide office Bennett and Ducey have only 31% and 25% name recognition respectively, and none of the rest are over 25%.

In hypothetical general election contests between Democratic candidate Fred DuVal (who has just 27% name recognition) and the Republican field, no candidate ever gets more than 40%. DuVal trails Scott Smith (39/33) and Ken Bennett (37/33) but leads the rest of the GOP hopefuls- it's 36/35 over Doug Ducey, 35/32 over John Molina, 36/32 over Frank Riggs, 37/33 over Christine Jones, 37/32 over Al Melvin, and 40/35 over Andrew Thomas. Overall the race has to be considered a toss up at this point.

We also looked at one other statewide race for this fall- Attorney General- and found Democratic challenger Felicia Rotellini starting out with a 42/36 advantage over incumbent Republican Tom Horne in a rematch of their close 2010 contest.

Brewer's approval rating stands at 44/42 and that +2 spread is almost identical to the +1 she had at 47/46 the last time PPP polled on her in October of 2012. She's down slightly with Republicans from the last poll (72/18 then, 66/22 now), but up slightly with Democrats (14/82 then, 20/62 now).

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/arizona-supports-brewer-veto-gay-marriage.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: March 04, 2014, 01:18:09 PM »

This confirms what 2 other polls have shown recently:

No clear frontrunner on the GOP side (who are also not well known).

A Democratic candidate who is not well known.

Therefore many undecided in the GE and everything's possible ...

The Dems should put some money in there (even though I believe that the Reps will win it in the end).
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2014, 03:09:48 PM »

Seems very similar to what we are seeing in Florida. We are gonna win either one of those states.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #3 on: March 04, 2014, 04:06:06 PM »

Looks like they didn't ask about 2016. Sad
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Vega
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« Reply #4 on: March 04, 2014, 04:07:59 PM »

Richard Carmona should run as a Democrat. He has a good chance of winning.
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Andrew1
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« Reply #5 on: March 04, 2014, 05:16:24 PM »

Shame that this poll doesn't seem to have tested Brewer seeking a third term, and how she might fare against those already in the Republican primary.

I don't believe she could actually do it, but it might have been fun to see voters' views on it.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6 on: March 04, 2014, 06:52:48 PM »

Looks like they didn't ask about 2016. Sad

Or they simply have yet to show it.
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Vega
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« Reply #7 on: March 04, 2014, 09:15:11 PM »

Shame that this poll doesn't seem to have tested Brewer seeking a third term, and how she might fare against those already in the Republican primary.

I don't believe she could actually do it, but it might have been fun to see voters' views on it.

Indeed; had she decided to actually embark on that path, something would have been passed by now.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #8 on: March 05, 2014, 10:48:05 AM »

New Poll: Arizona Governor by Public Policy Polling on 2014-03-02

Summary: D: 33%, R: 37%, U: 30%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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