The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)

[Flake]

Would the Republican primary go to a runoff if neither Rauner or Dillard gets 50% of the vote?

[SWE]

Would the Republican primary go to a runoff if neither Rauner or Dillard gets 50% of the vote?

It would not

http://www.instantrunoffvoting.us/runoffelections.html

[muon2]

IL has no runoff provisions. FPTP all the way.

[CatoMinor]

What % of Cook is reporting?

[Flake]

What % of Cook is reporting?

85%

[publicunofficial]

47% in for HD-81, Sandack is behind by 13 votes, a 50-50 split percentage-wise.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Brady concedes, Rauner leads by 11,000 votes (40% - 38%)



EDIT: Rauner just surged to 33,000 vote lead, 42%-37%!

[publicunofficial]

Barring something unexpected, Dillard is likely to lose by 3.5% based on current projections.



Also, AP has called HD-39 for Guzzardi. The Chicago Machine is expansive and powerful, but it does have it's losses every now and again.

[ElectionsGuy]

About 90% in and Rauner maintaining a 2 point lead. I think he's got this.

[Mr. Illini]

HD-81
Keith R. Matune   50.6%
Ron Sandack       49.4%
84% Reporting

The Tea Party may have their next confirmed kill in the extinction of the moderates.

[publicunofficial]

HD-81
Keith R. Matune   50.6%
Ron Sandack       49.4%
84% Reporting

The Tea Party may have their next confirmed kill in the extinction of the moderates.

It's a shame that it gives Moderate R's one more reason not to support gay marriage. Although I think we're done with the major legislative battles for that issue for the time being.

[Mr. Illini]

HD-81
Keith R. Matune   50.6%
Ron Sandack       49.4%
84% Reporting

The Tea Party may have their next confirmed kill in the extinction of the moderates.

It's a shame that it gives Moderate R's one more reason not to support gay marriage. Although I think we're done with the major legislative battles for that issue for the time being.

To be fair, Rep. Sullivan survived his challenge up in Libertyville/Mundelein, and it hasn't been an issue for Cross in the Treasury race.

[muon2]

HD-81
Keith R. Matune   50.6%
Ron Sandack       49.4%
84% Reporting

The Tea Party may have their next confirmed kill in the extinction of the moderates.

It's a shame that it gives Moderate R's one more reason not to support gay marriage. Although I think we're done with the major legislative battles for that issue for the time being.

To be fair, Rep. Sullivan survived his challenge up in Libertyville/Mundelein, and it hasn't been an issue for Cross in the Treasury race.

Cross' opponent Bob Grogan pledged not to make it an issue, and lived up to that pledge.

[Mr. Illini]

HD-81
Keith R. Matune   50.6%
Ron Sandack       49.4%
84% Reporting

The Tea Party may have their next confirmed kill in the extinction of the moderates.

It's a shame that it gives Moderate R's one more reason not to support gay marriage. Although I think we're done with the major legislative battles for that issue for the time being.

To be fair, Rep. Sullivan survived his challenge up in Libertyville/Mundelein, and it hasn't been an issue for Cross in the Treasury race.

Cross' opponent Bob Grogan pledged not to make it an issue, and lived up to that pledge.

Indeed, but he was still pretty well known for that vote. Also Sullivan won by quite a bit in 51.

[publicunofficial]

The primary has been called for Bruce Rauner. 40-37-15-7

[IceSpear]

If the election was a week later, would Dillard have won? He outperformed the polls quite drastically.

[Mr. Illini]

Map looking something like Obama's map in 2012 right now. Rauner killed it in Chicagoland and NW Illinois, Dillard basically swept downstate. Rutherford took his home county and Brady took the far-right area around Effingham.



CREDIT: http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=742076

[muon2]

If the election was a week later, would Dillard have won? He outperformed the polls quite drastically.

Not necessarily. There was a big GOTV for inds and Dems to take GOP ballots for Dillard as the anti-Rauner. Polls can't catch that. There was also a bleed off of part of Brady's vote when it was clear who the most likely socon winner would be, and that might have continued going forward. The best thing for Dillard would have been for Rutherford to announce his withdrawal from the race, and they would not have gone to Rauner but split between Dillard and Brady.

[Meeker]

Quinn lost a number of downstate counties.

[Mr. Illini]

Sandack pulled through!

[Flake]

Governor Pat Quinn (D): 71.8%
Fmr. Dir. of CeaseFire Illinois Tio Hardiman (D): 28.2%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hopefully, this prompts politicians to change the system so that there is a runoff. Clearly Hynes would have beaten Quinn in 2010 and Dillard would have won in 2014, had there been one. There should never be a case where an endangered incumbant should never be primaried again. Reflected in his poor turnout numbers.

[muon2]

Hopefully, this prompts politicians to change the system so that there is a runoff. Clearly Hynes would have beaten Quinn in 2010 and Dillard would have won in 2014, had there been one. There should never be a case where an endangered incumbant should never be primaried again. Reflected in his poor turnout numbers.

Runoffs are considered expensive since in most years it requires an additional election. Would a top-two open primary (CA-style) have produced a better result?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Rauner may have won the GOP primary, but Pat Quinn was the real winner last night.  This race just got a lot uglier for Republicans.

If the election was a week later, would Dillard have won? He outperformed the polls quite drastically.

Not necessarily. There was a big GOTV for inds and Dems to take GOP ballots for Dillard as the anti-Rauner. Polls can't catch that. There was also a bleed off of part of Brady's vote when it was clear who the most likely socon winner would be, and that might have continued going forward. The best thing for Dillard would have been for Rutherford to announce his withdrawal from the race, and they would not have gone to Rauner but split between Dillard and Brady.

Seriously?  Rauner is a much weaker candidate than Dillard would have been.

[Oak Hills]

If the election was a week later, would Dillard have won? He outperformed the polls quite drastically.

Not necessarily. There was a big GOTV for inds and Dems to take GOP ballots for Dillard as the anti-Rauner. Polls can't catch that. There was also a bleed off of part of Brady's vote when it was clear who the most likely socon winner would be, and that might have continued going forward. The best thing for Dillard would have been for Rutherford to announce his withdrawal from the race, and they would not have gone to Rauner but split between Dillard and Brady.

Seriously?  Rauner is a much weaker candidate than Dillard would have been.

I think the idea is that Democrats think Dillard would be a more acceptable governor to them than Rauner would, and they know there's a high chance of Quinn losing.

Supposedly a bit of D crossover votes for Dillard. I'm guessing that they think Quinn is going to lose anyway, so why not get the most liberal Republican?

Dillard's actually quite conservative socially, though not as much as Brady. The difference for Dems is that Dillard's not anti-union.