Washington, D.C. Megathread

[Nutmeg]

I'll offer some background here because I haven't seen any other discussions about this race. D.C. has more residents than either Vermont or Wyoming (as well as a higher growth rate than 49 of the states), so I figured this belonged on this board.

One-term incumbent Vince Gray is running for reelection, and although large majorities of voters say the city is headed in the right direction, ethical and legal issues from his 2010 campaign continue to harm Gray's (re)electability. The scandal of his 2010 election, combined with Gray's extremely late decision to seek reelection, prompted 4 sitting councilmembers to challenge him in the April 1 primary and another in the general election.

Those fellow Democrats are Ward 2 Councilmember Jack Evans (white; longest-serving Councilmember in history who largely is a shill for developers; represents downtown, Georgetown, DuPont, and other wealthy and mostly white areas), Ward 4 Councilwoman Muriel Bowser (black; represents largely affluent and largely black north-central D.C.), Ward 6 Councilman Tommy Wells (white; often the lone dissenting vote on legislation and arguably the most ethical member of a body where ethics have been a huge problem lately; represents a diverse ward in Capitol Hill and Southwest D.C.), and At-Large Councilman Vincent Orange (black; doesn't really have much of a base but was elected mostly because many other candidates split the vote). A few other random candidates each will earn a percent or two of the vote, further denying the eventual winner a mandate leading to the general election.

Bowser is the protege of former Mayor Adrian Fenty, whom Gray defeated in the 2010 primary. The Fenty-Gray matchup was extremely bitter and split largely along racial lines (whites for Fenty, blacks for Gray). Bowser would seem like a natural choice for the many Fenty voters who never have forgiven Gray (for example, despite the absence of an organized write-in campaign, nearly a quarter of all votes in the 2010 general election were from people presumably writing in Fenty). But Bowser's greatest weakness is that she's extremely cautious, slow to form opinions, and seems most interested in elections rather than governing, in sharp contrast to the abrasive, hyperactive Fenty.

Gray has received at most 28% support in each poll taken to date. The rest of the candidates were clustered together in the teens, but Bowser received the Washington Post's endorsement and seems to have some momentum, and on paper she should be Gray's strongest challenger. She's also the candidate with the most racially balanced support, which could be key in a city that is increasingly diverse.

My preferred candidate is Tommy Wells (I used to live in Ward 6 and became a huge fan of his independent streak and his prioritization of making the city more livable), and I recently begrudgingly changed my registration from No Party to Democratic to be able to vote for him in the primary (although I have changing my party registration back to No Party on my calendar the day after the primary). Unlike all the other candidates, he is refusing all corporate and PAC donations. Unfortunately, his principles are ensuring that his campaign is unable to compete monetarily.

Prediction: I expect Gray will win the primary with around 30% of the vote, and because it's a first past the post system, that's good enough.

However, unlike in most recent D.C. elections, that's not the end of the story. Waiting in the wings is independent at-large Councilman David Catania, who is a gay former Republican (he was first elected in 1997 and only became an independent in 2004). A recent poll showed him statistically tied with Gray in a general-election matchup. The Democratic primary has been a chaotic free-for-all so far, so Catania could benefit from the bloodshed as well as having a long general election campaign thanks to an extremely early primary this year (2010's primary was in September). Many of those who wouldn't vote for Gray in the primary likely won't in the general either, so Catania probably has a higher floor than Gray does, but Gray probably has a higher ceiling due to Catania's race, orientation, and past party affiliation.

[Vega]

I would not think that DC would give Grey another term; but all the polls have him leading in the Democrat Primary. The union support he's getting doesn't hurt either.

Jack Evans is my man; seems like he would make a good mayor.

Also, here is the Marist poll conducted not too long ago:

http://media.nbcbayarea.com/documents/NBC4_WAMU_Washington+Informer_Marist+Poll+Annotated+Questionnaire_February.pdf

[Nutmeg]

I would not think that DC would give Grey another term; but all the polls have him leading in the Democrat Primary. The union support he's getting doesn't hurt either.

Jack Evans is my man; seems like he would make a good mayor.

Also, here is the Marist poll conducted not too long ago:

http://media.nbcbayarea.com/documents/NBC4_WAMU_Washington+Informer_Marist+Poll+Annotated+Questionnaire_February.pdf

That's the tragedy of first past the post, that someone primary voters think by a margin of 63 to 31% does not deserve reelection is likely to win that election.

I had seen the mayoral results from that poll, but some of the other numbers are interesting - thanks for posting the link. Some things that stood out to me:

- President Obama's approval rating among registered voters is 87%.

- 75% think the city is headed in the right direction.

- Gray is the second choice of only 12% of likely primary voters (after Bowser and Evans). So only 40% of likely primary voters even consider Gray as one of their top two choices. Ouch.

- 39% of Democrats are aged 60 and older. (Young people here are extremely transient and unlikely to register to vote here. Evans' natural base would be all the young people who live in the new condos that he pushed excessive and unnecessary tax breaks to encourage developers to build, and yet those people aren't going to be voting.)

- Residents are 47% black, 39% white. That gap continues to shrink.

- The pollster clearly doesn't know D.C. very well based on the question asking where respondents live. D.C. is divided into 4 quadrants (NW, NE, SE, SW), but the assigning of the wards (1 through 8 ) to each quadrant is extremely wrong. Like, terribly wrong. Like, done by someone who didn't even bother to look at a map.

- 78% of primary voters are enthusiastic. I guess so - mayor is the biggest thing we really have here (cough taxation without representation cough)

- It's funny that Gray has a 56/36% job approval rating but an underwater 45/46% personal favorability rating. People think he's unethical but has done a good job for the city. I'd be in that camp.

- Bowser, Evans, and Wells all have similar approval ratings, at around 50/25%. 50% have an unfavorable opinion of Orange, even though he's a citywide elected official. He'll likely be primaried in 2016. Another failure of FPTP - unpopular losers like this keep winning when there's a free for all among tons of candidates.

- 41% of Democrats "definitely plan to vote against" Gray in the general election, with only 44% "definitely voting for" him then. Registered voters are split 42/42. Here comes D.C.'s first non-Democratic, first white, and first gay mayor?

- Only 15% of voters feel Gray did nothing wrong (unethical/illegal) in his 2010 campaign.

[Vega]

I would not think that DC would give Grey another term; but all the polls have him leading in the Democrat Primary. The union support he's getting doesn't hurt either.

Jack Evans is my man; seems like he would make a good mayor.

Also, here is the Marist poll conducted not too long ago:

http://media.nbcbayarea.com/documents/NBC4_WAMU_Washington+Informer_Marist+Poll+Annotated+Questionnaire_February.pdf

That's the tragedy of first past the post, that someone primary voters think by a margin of 63 to 31% does not deserve reelection is likely to win that election.

I had seen the mayoral results from that poll, but some of the other numbers are interesting - thanks for posting the link. Some things that stood out to me:

- President Obama's approval rating among registered voters is 87%.

- 75% think the city is headed in the right direction.

- Gray is the second choice of only 12% of likely primary voters (after Bowser and Evans). So only 40% of likely primary voters even consider Gray as one of their top two choices. Ouch.

- 39% of Democrats are aged 60 and older. (Young people here are extremely transient and unlikely to register to vote here. Evans' natural base would be all the young people who live in the new condos that he pushed excessive and unnecessary tax breaks to encourage developers to build, and yet those people aren't going to be voting.)

- Residents are 47% black, 39% white. That gap continues to shrink.

- The pollster clearly doesn't know D.C. very well based on the question asking where respondents live. D.C. is divided into 4 quadrants (NW, NE, SE, SW), but the assigning of the wards (1 through 8 ) to each quadrant is extremely wrong. Like, terribly wrong. Like, done by someone who didn't even bother to look at a map.

- 78% of primary voters are enthusiastic. I guess so - mayor is the biggest thing we really have here (cough taxation without representation cough)

- It's funny that Gray has a 56/36% job approval rating but an underwater 45/46% personal favorability rating. People think he's unethical but has done a good job for the city. I'd be in that camp.

- Bowser, Evans, and Wells all have similar approval ratings, at around 50/25%. 50% have an unfavorable opinion of Orange, even though he's a citywide elected official. He'll likely be primaried in 2016.

- 41% of Democrats "definitely plan to vote against" Gray in the general election, with only 44% "definitely voting for" him then. Registered voters are split 42/42. Here comes D.C.'s first non-Democratic, first white, and first gay mayor?

- Only 15% of voters feel Gray did nothing wrong (unethical/illegal) in his 2010 campaign.

I feel you; I totally support the Single Transferable Vote. FPTP is horrid.

Thanks for giving the bullet points of that poll; it's funny how only 15% of people think Grey is on the right side of the law.

[Meeker]

I think Bowser has managed to put herself ahead of the rest of the not-Gray candidates, and I think you could see people rally around her in the next month for that reason. I'd still put Gray as a favorite to win the primary, I think, but his odds are lower than they were a month ago. I don't think Evans or Wells have a real shot at this point (thank God in the first case; unfortunate in the latter).

[Vega]

I think Bowser has managed to put herself ahead of the rest of the not-Gray candidates, and I think you could see people rally around her in the next month for that reason. I'd still put Gray as a favorite to win the primary, I think, but his odds are lower than they were a month ago. I don't think Evans or Wells have a real shot at this point (thank God in the first case; unfortunate in the latter).

Why don't you like Evans? He's one of the most solid people in DC.

[Meeker]

I think Bowser has managed to put herself ahead of the rest of the not-Gray candidates, and I think you could see people rally around her in the next month for that reason. I'd still put Gray as a favorite to win the primary, I think, but his odds are lower than they were a month ago. I don't think Evans or Wells have a real shot at this point (thank God in the first case; unfortunate in the latter).

Why don't you like Evans? He's one of the most solid people in DC.

If you're a developer who wants a cushy tax break, sure.

[Meeker]

Been getting a lot of Evans mailers over the past few weeks. Haven't seen anything from Bowser or anyone else. I live in Ward 6 (Southwest).

[Vega]

Been getting a lot of Evans mailers over the past few weeks. Haven't seen anything from Bowser or anyone else. I live in Ward 6 (Southwest).

Curious, what's the theme of those mailers?

[Meeker]

Been getting a lot of Evans mailers over the past few weeks. Haven't seen anything from Bowser or anyone else. I live in Ward 6 (Southwest).

Curious, what's the theme of those mailers?

Part biographical, part jobs/economic development.

[Nutmeg]

Why don't you like Evans? He's one of the most solid people in DC.

If you're a developer who wants a cushy tax break, sure.

Agreed. That's basically my understanding of what Evans does.

I live in Ward 6 (Southwest).

Ah Southwest, what a quiet little place. I miss it sometimes (I lived at 6th and M SW in 2009 and 2010). Wells was campaigning in 2010 outside the Waterfront Metro station and won me over with his talk of alternate forms of transportation.

[Vega]

I lived in Georgetown a few years back; which is Ward 2. That's how I became acquainted with Jack Evans.

[Nutmeg]

The latest polling shows Bowser pulling ahead of Gray, 30 to 27, with Wells a distant third at 14. The prosecutor's dangling of an indictment against Gray seems to be doing him in, with large shifts in Gray's trustworthiness rating. Bowser has all the momentum; I now expect her to win.

Independent Catania would tie Gray in a general election 41 to 41, while Bowser would crush Catania 56 to 23. Mayor Bowser it is, then.

I'm personally sticking with Wells. My #1 issue is the continuance of the streetcar system up Georgia Avenue, which Gray and Wells both support, while Bowser doesn't really have opinions on anything. Despite my disdain for Gray's ethical problems, I think I actually prefer him, policy-wise, over Bowser.

[warandwar]

The latest polling shows Bowser pulling ahead of Gray, 30 to 27, with Wells a distant third at 14. The prosecutor's dangling of an indictment against Gray seems to be doing him in, with large shifts in Gray's trustworthiness rating. Bowser has all the momentum; I now expect her to win.

Independent Catania would tie Gray in a general election 41 to 41, while Bowser would crush Catania 56 to 23. Mayor Bowser it is, then.

I'm personally sticking with Wells. My #1 issue is the continuance of the streetcar system up Georgia Avenue, which Gray and Wells both support, while Bowser doesn't really have opinions on anything. Despite my disdain for Gray's ethical problems, I think I actually prefer him, policy-wise, over Bowser.

Bowser = Fenty II. I completely agree with you about Gray. He actually cares about the SE, which I doubt Bowser does. I thought Wells would get a boost considering he was the only candidate (besides Shallal, I guess) not to have an Uncle Earl. Oh well. Maybe Kojo Nnamdi '18.

[Nutmeg]

Bowser = Fenty II. I completely agree with you about Gray. He actually cares about the SE, which I doubt Bowser does. I thought Wells would get a boost considering he was the only candidate (besides Shallal, I guess) not to have an Uncle Earl. Oh well. Maybe Kojo Nnamdi '18.

I'm not so sure about the Bowser-Fenty comparison. Fenty was a person of ideas and action but with an abrasive personality. Bowser seems to me to be a person of no ideas and no action but with a winning personality (she once spontaneously danced with me at a parade ).

But I agree that it's strange that although the ethics issue is taking Gray down, Wells hasn't really benefitted from it at the same time. I suppose Evans' collapse in support can be attributed to his defense of Gray, though.

And I am completely on board with Kojo '18!

[Maxwell]

the nerd in me is amazed and overjoyed at the fact that D.C. may in fact have a Mayor Bowser.

[warandwar]

Yeah you're right in terms of personality. I guess I was going for her being fenty's (preferred I think) successor on the council and that he's endorsed her (along with the WaPo)

[Nutmeg]

the nerd in me is amazed and overjoyed at the fact that D.C. may in fact have a Mayor Bowser.

All of her signs/logos are green and yellow, too, which somehow makes it even better.

Yeah you're right in terms of personality. I guess I was going for her being fenty's (preferred I think) successor on the council and that he's endorsed her (along with the WaPo)

I still don't really understand it - she owes her entire political career to Fenty's endorsement first for Ward 4 and now for mayor, and yet she is nothing like him as far as I can tell. I have nothing against her, but I have no reason to support her, either. There's just not much going on there.

But now that I think about it, poll after poll shows that people are extremely satisfied/optimistic about the state of the city (and blacks even moreso than whites, much to my surprise), even despite the incumbent's alleged ethical problems. Maybe people just want an auto-pilot for mayor who will just keep current trends going. Bowser would be that empty suit who wouldn't rock the boat. (Can I come up with any other metaphors for her?)

[Frodo]

Mayor Vincent Gray has lost the primary to Council member Muriel Bowser, and by more than 8,000 votes.

Here are the preliminary totals (71.3% precincts reporting):

Vincent Gray (incumbent): 33% (~24,000)
Muriel Bowser: 44% (~32,000)
Tommy Wells: 12% (~8,900)
Jack Evans: 5% (3,650)

[warandwar]

Gray won Wards 5, 7 and 8, and Bowser won the rest (Wells was close in Ward 6, which he represented in the Council). Charles Allen, Wells' former COS will replace him in the council. Also, 16-year incumbent Jim Graham got unseated by Brianne Nadeau. Good riddance to him. Is Weaver still running in the general election?

[Nutmeg]

Also, 16-year incumbent Jim Graham got unseated by Brianne Nadeau. Good riddance to him. Is Weaver still running in the general election?

I'm a Ward 1 resident and strongly supported Nadeau. I'm shocked that she won, let alone by a 59-41% margin.

I don't know whether Weaver still will run. He was my first choice in the primary before he dropped out (I also voted for him in the 2010 special election for the at-large seat), but his main platform was unseating Graham. Now that Nadeau has won, what would Weaver's platform be? I haven't heard anything from him lately. I think he expected Nadeau to lose.

[Nutmeg]

Looks like Catania still is waging his independent challenge to Bowser in the general, leaving his at-large Council seat open.

Apparently Bryan Weaver is running for at-large now, but so is Yvette Alexander? Very weird. I don't think any ward-based councilmember has intentionally switched to at-large. She said she would rather work on city-wide issues rather than do constituent service requests. She got only 42% in her last primary in 2012, so she probably realized Ward 7 was done with her anyway in 2016.

Tommy Wells also is considering joining the at-large race, also as an independent. So looks like another big battle is shaping up there. I suppose a real question is whether 2 independents could finish first and second, bumping Anita Bonds from the Council. Probably not, if even Vincent Orange could hang onto his seat.

[Vega]

I wonder how well Catania will do in the election. Can't imagine him winning, and the polls (but they are from March) show him trailing by more than 20 points.

[Nutmeg]

I wonder how well Catania will do in the election. Can't imagine him winning, and the polls (but they are from March) show him trailing by more than 20 points.

Bowser's general election slogan is "Democrat Muriel Bowser," which pretty much tells you everything you need to know. No one is going to beat the Democrat in a general election here barring some obvious flaw in that candidate (and I don't think Bowser's general cluelessness is enough of a flaw).

[Vega]

I wonder how well Catania will do in the election. Can't imagine him winning, and the polls (but they are from March) show him trailing by more than 20 points.

Bowser's general election slogan is "Democrat Muriel Bowser," which pretty much tells you everything you need to know. No one is going to beat the Democrat in a general election here barring some obvious flaw in that candidate (and I don't think Bowser's general cluelessness is enough of a flaw).

Yeah.

To be honest, I'm not entirely sure if Bowser is better than Grey. She seems totally, well, as you said, clueless.