2004/2012 vs 2008/2012 PVI of states

[hopper]

2004/2012 PVI             2008-2012 PVI
Utah R+24                       R+22
Wyoming R+21                R+22
Idaho R+18                     R+18
Oklahoma R+17               R+19
Alabama R+14                 R+14
Nebraska R+14                R+12
Kentucky R+13                R+13
North Dakota R+12          R+10
South Dakota R+11         R+10
West Virginia R+10          R+13
Alaska R+10                    R+12
Kansas R+10                   R+12
Texas R+10                     R+10
Arkansas R+9                  R+14
Tennessee R+9                R+12
Louisiana R+9                  R+12
Mississippi R+9                R+9
Montana R+9                   R+7
South Carolina R+9          R+8
Indiana R+8                    R+5
Georgia R+7                    R+6
Arizona R+6                    R+7
Missouri R+5                   R+5
North Carolina R+4          R+3
Florida R+3                     R+2
Virginia R+2               EVEN
Colorado EVEN                D+1
Ohio: EVEN                     R+1
Iowa D+1                       D+1
New Hampshire D+1       D+1
Nevada D+1                   D+2
New Mexico D+2             D+4
Pennsylvania D+2           D+1
Wisconsin D+2               D+2
Michigan D+3                 D+4
Minnesota D+3               D+2
Oregon D+4                   D+5
Maine D+6                     D+6
New Jersey D+6             D+6
Washington D+6            D+5
Connecticut D+7            D+7
Delaware D+7               D+8
Illinois D+7                   D+8
California D+9               D+9
Maryland D+10              D+10
Massachusetts D+12      D+10
New York D+12             D+11
Rhode Island D+12        D+11
Hawaii D+13             D+20
Vermont D+14              D+16

Notice Hawaii loses 7 Dem PVI points. Virginia has an R PVI and CO and OH are both at EVEN PVI's.



 

[hopper]

Arkansas is 5 points more Democrat under the 2004/2012 PVI than it is under the 2008/2012 PVI.

[hopper]

Interesting that California hasn't shifted since 2004.  I would have thought it was even more favorable to the Democrats now.

Well most of the western interior counties are growing(from So Cal to the Central Part of the state) and even though they are trending from swing counties I think to more Dem counties they are still moderately more conservative than the middle part of the state by the shore line. The middle shore line counties aren't growing as fast as the shore line counties in the central part of the state as well.