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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  2004/2012 vs 2008/2012 PVI of states
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Author Topic: 2004/2012 vs 2008/2012 PVI of states  (Read 1407 times)
hopper
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« on: February 23, 2014, 02:52:53 am »

2004/2012 PVI             2008-2012 PVI
Utah R+24                       R+22
Wyoming R+21                R+22
Idaho R+18                     R+18
Oklahoma R+17               R+19
Alabama R+14                 R+14
Nebraska R+14                R+12
Kentucky R+13                R+13
North Dakota R+12          R+10
South Dakota R+11         R+10
West Virginia R+10          R+13
Alaska R+10                    R+12
Kansas R+10                   R+12
Texas R+10                     R+10
Arkansas R+9                  R+14
Tennessee R+9                R+12
Louisiana R+9                  R+12
Mississippi R+9                R+9
Montana R+9                   R+7
South Carolina R+9          R+8
Indiana R+8                    R+5
Georgia R+7                    R+6
Arizona R+6                    R+7
Missouri R+5                   R+5
North Carolina R+4          R+3
Florida R+3                     R+2
Virginia R+2               EVEN
Colorado EVEN                D+1
Ohio: EVEN                     R+1

Iowa D+1                       D+1
New Hampshire D+1       D+1
Nevada D+1                   D+2
New Mexico D+2             D+4
Pennsylvania D+2           D+1
Wisconsin D+2               D+2
Michigan D+3                 D+4
Minnesota D+3               D+2
Oregon D+4                   D+5
Maine D+6                     D+6
New Jersey D+6             D+6
Washington D+6            D+5
Connecticut D+7            D+7
Delaware D+7               D+8
Illinois D+7                   D+8
California D+9               D+9
Maryland D+10              D+10
Massachusetts D+12      D+10
New York D+12             D+11
Rhode Island D+12        D+11
Hawaii D+13             D+20
Vermont D+14              D+16

Notice Hawaii loses 7 Dem PVI points. Virginia has an R PVI and CO and OH are both at EVEN PVI's.



 
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: February 23, 2014, 11:01:35 pm »

Kerry had some magic in OH in 2004 and managed to make it vote left of the nation.  If you look at 1992-2000, Ohio was even further right of where it was in 2008-12.  Is OH historically pacifist?
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hopper
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« Reply #2 on: February 24, 2014, 04:48:11 pm »

Arkansas is 5 points more Democrat under the 2004/2012 PVI than it is under the 2008/2012 PVI.
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SamInTheSouth
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« Reply #3 on: February 25, 2014, 06:09:13 pm »

Interesting that California hasn't shifted since 2004.  I would have thought it was even more favorable to the Democrats now.
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sdu754
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« Reply #4 on: February 26, 2014, 01:56:54 am »

Kerry had some magic in OH in 2004 and managed to make it vote left of the nation.  If you look at 1992-2000, Ohio was even further right of where it was in 2008-12.  Is OH historically pacifist?

Ohio still has quite a few Union voters (steel Industry, Auto Industry & Railroads) Union workers tend to go Democrat.
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hopper
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« Reply #5 on: March 01, 2014, 06:27:02 pm »

Interesting that California hasn't shifted since 2004.  I would have thought it was even more favorable to the Democrats now.
Well most of the western interior counties are growing(from So Cal to the Central Part of the state) and even though they are trending from swing counties I think to more Dem counties they are still moderately more conservative than the middle part of the state by the shore line. The middle shore line counties aren't growing as fast as the shore line counties in the central part of the state as well.
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