Quebec: April 7, 2014

[RogueBeaver]

Ipsos has 37/32/16 PLQ, 38/29 PQ among Francophones.

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberals approaching majority territory now, I think. As much as I hated the Liberals 2 years ago, I can't help but be pleased.

[Hatman 🍁]

Regional breaks for the Ipsos poll

Quebec City (Sample: 78)

PQ: 30
CAQ: 28
PLQ: 27
QS: 8
ON: 1
Oth: 6

lol... small sample size


Island of Montreal (150)

PLQ: 48
PQ: 25
QS: 10
CAQ: 9
ON: 4
Oth: 4


"Montreal subsurbs" (173)

PQ: 39
PLQ: 33
CAQ: 17
QS: 9
ON: 1
Oth: 1

Despite the lower sample size, this looks more accurate than the CROP poll


ROQ (262)

PLQ: 37 (yeah, right)
PQ: 32
CAQ: 15
QS: 11
ON: 2
Oth: 3


These regional breaks are um... interesting.

[RogueBeaver]

This is why I trust our local polls more. I'd be relieved, not happy at a PLQ victory.

[lilTommy]

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/dossiers/elections-quebecoises/201403/19/01-4749435-rimouski-lex-bloquiste-suzanne-tremblay-appuie-qs.php

Former longtime BQ MP Suzanne Tremblay endorses the QS candidate... seems a very local focus since she's upset that a local young "activist" was passed over for a drop in candidate with backroom ties... and PKP and the Charter

[RogueBeaver]

Here's a very good article from Michel David on what the PQ would face after a hypothetical defeat.

Paywalled article on the history of leaders' debates. IIRC we only had 3 before the '90s: '62, '76, '85. Lesage wiped the floor with Johnson in '62 by all accounts, the other notable if unsurprising thing is that Johnson insisted on an English segment.

[RogueBeaver]

Dear God, they want to ban the burqa at universities now. But this totally has nothing to do with Muslims.

[DL]

Now Forum Research has the Quebec Liberals surging to a 13 point lead (I'm not sure I believe it)

PLQ - 45% (+5)
PQ - 32% (-6)
CAQ - 13%
QS - 7%

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/quebec/2014/03/20/quebec_election_poll_finds_liberals_surging_over_pq_with_first_debate_tonight.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Some discussion about it not being weighted by language.


Montreal (Sample: 756)

PLQ: 49 (+7)
PQ: 30 (-8)
CAQ: 9 (n/c)
QS: 9 (+2)
PVQ: 2 (-1)
Oth: 1 (n/c)


Quebec City (244)

PLQ: 46 (n/c)
PQ: 27 (+3)
CAQ: 21 (-1)
QS: 4 (-1)
Oth: 1 (+1)
PVQ: 0  (-2)


"North Shore" (286)

PLQ: 45 (+11)
PQ: 35 (-10)
CAQ: 12 (+1)
QS: 6 (-1)
PVQ: 1 (-1)
Oth: 1  (n/c)


"South Shore" (311)

PLQ: 38 (+4)
PQ: 36 (-7)
CAQ: 18 (+5)
QS: 4 (-4)
PVQ: 3 (+2)
Oth: 1  (n/c)

[DL]

Some discussion about it not being weighted by language.

Yeah right - with a 13 point lead - you could disenfranchise all anglophones and the Liberals would still be ahead. I see Pequistes are starting to sound like Romney supporters grasping at straws with "Unskewed polls" (sic.)

[Hatman 🍁]

Some discussion about it not being weighted by language.

Yeah right - with a 13 point lead - you could disenfranchise all anglophones and the Liberals would still be ahead. I see Pequistes are starting to sound like Romney supporters grasping at straws with "Unskewed polls" (sic.)

Eric Grenier said it, so he's probably wrong.

[MaxQue]

Dear God, they want to ban the burqa at universities now. But this totally has nothing to do with Muslims.

Well, burqa was banned in my department at university for security reasons.

[MaxQue]

Some discussion about it not being weighted by language.

Yeah right - with a 13 point lead - you could disenfranchise all anglophones and the Liberals would still be ahead. I see Pequistes are starting to sound like Romney supporters grasping at straws with "Unskewed polls" (sic.)

Sorry, but a 10-point lead for Liberals in the North Shore isn't remotely believable. It's sounding more like Fox News commissionning polls to cater to their audience (here being an English chaneel catering to English Canada news).

[DL]

I sceptical of the size of the Liberal lead here but the overall trend is unmistakable - every single poll has had growing Liberal support and a drop off for the PQ Leger (=), CROP (PLQ+3), Ipsos (PLQ+5) now Forum (PLQ+13) - something is happening...just not sure how big it is.

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, Forum's a joke.

[MaxQue]

I sceptical of the size of the Liberal lead here but the overall trend is unmistakable - every single poll has had growing Liberal support and a drop off for the PQ Leger (=), CROP (PLQ+3), Ipsos (PLQ+5) now Forum (PLQ+13) - something is happening...just not sure how big it is.

I would be wary of using different pollsters (with different methodologies) to show such a trend. I do not deny a Liberal trend, but I wouldn't trust Ipsos or Forum right now. Not without being backed by a more reputable pollster.

[Qavvavak]

45% for PLQ in Northern quebec?

If i live in Nunavik (Ungava) I would vote PLQ to defeat PQ

I HOPE Inuit and Cree territory going high vote turnout next month!
I dont want to see them low 28% in Nunavik and 16% in Cree communities......

[DL]

I have my issues with Forum but at least they offer us a poll that is telephone based and that uses some form of random digit dialling. The "reputable" polling companies - CROP and Leger use online panels (as does Ipsos)...I am not knocking online polls - but they can be "garbage in and garbage out" and we saw in BC that over-dependence on online panels can produce totally distorted results.
 

[Antonio the Sixth]

So the Libs are actually gonna win this? Québec is so hilarious.

[RogueBeaver]

We're barely halfway through the campaign. More important is the debate in about 3.5 hours. Will post the livestream when that's up, but due to circumstances I'll be following on Twitter.

[Hatman 🍁]

I hope you guys aren't confusing what "North Shore" means. In the case of FR, it means everything north of the St. Lawrence outside of the Quebec and Montreal CMAs. It's not inconceivable that the Liberals are ahead there. Now the actual North Shore region (north of Montreal) is a different story.

45% for PLQ in Northern quebec?

If i live in Nunavik (Ungava) I would vote PLQ to defeat PQ

I HOPE Inuit and Cree territory going high vote turnout next month!
I dont want to see them low 28% in Nunavik and 16% in Cree communities......

Ungava is tiny faction of the North Shore region, and the Inuit there don't vote. The riding actually has an Anglo plurality, but votes PQ. What does that tell you?

[DC Al Fine]

Legault's going hard after Marois.

[RogueBeaver]

From what I'm seeing on Twitter, Marois and Couillard are being quite aggressive but no clear advantage for either.

[MaxQue]

I would say than the winners are Legault and David.

Marois sounded clueless and Couillard like a bully listening no one.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's a roundup from Le Devoir. I'll see what the reviews are tomorrow, but I don't think the trajectory changed.