Quebec: April 7, 2014

[MaxQue]

PQ's Megantic candidate has some interesting views on welfare recipients.

Wrong link, Rogue.

[DL]

Major news flash. New CROP poll has the Quebec Liberals pulling into the lead!

PLQ - 39% (+3)
PQ - 36% (no change)
CAQ - 13% (-4)
QS - 10% (+2)

A three point lead for the PLQ would move the Libs into a plurality of seats

[lilTommy]

Major news flash. New CROP poll has the Quebec Liberals pulling into the lead!

PLQ - 39% (+3)
PQ - 36% (no change)
CAQ - 13% (-4)
QS - 10% (+2)

A three point lead for the PLQ would move the Libs into a plurality of seats

Do we have regional breakdown? If that boost is all MTL then i doubt it. I'm Happy to see QS moving up to!

[Hatman 🍁]

CROP hasn't been releasing cross tabs lately

[Hatman 🍁]

There's some regional breaks in their write up here: http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2014/201403/17/01-4748702-sondage-les-liberaux-passent-devant-les-pequistes.php


"450" (Area surrounding Montreal)
PLQ - 39
PQ - 37
CAQ - 13

Quebec City
PLQ - 36
PQ - 27
CAQ 23

[DL]

If the Liberals are even tied with the PQ in "450" (let alone ahead by 2 points) it is very very very bad news for the PQ. For them to win a majority the need to sweep 450 and not split it...Hatman, do you know what the popular vote split was in 2012 in the so-called "couronne autour de Montreal/450"?

[Hatman 🍁]

The Montreal CMA outside the island of Montreal voted:

PQ: 36%
CAQ: 31%
PLQ: 25%
QS: 5%
ON: 2%

Not exactly the 450, but close (I would have to map out which ridings were in the 450 exactly)

[RogueBeaver]

Breguet projects that at 60/58/5/2 PLQ, but 52/48 on who wins. So a jump-ball minority. More interesting is that 2/3 of Quebecers don't want a referendum but 2/3 of us also think she'd hold one anyways.

More vetting problems, this time a Grit.

[DL]

Thats about what I suspected...well needless to say if the PQ goes from leading the Libs by 5% in "450" to trailing them by 2% this time - it would be absolutely LETHAL to their chances of winning. Of course polls don't vote...

[RogueBeaver]

Plus the ballot box bonus, which never seems to be caught in the polls. It would be hilarious if Marois' star recruit denied her a second term. Doubly hilarious because if he's blamed he obviously won't get her job.

[Hatman 🍁]

Thats about what I suspected...well needless to say if the PQ goes from leading the Libs by 5% in "450" to trailing them by 2% this time - it would be absolutely LETHAL to their chances of winning. Of course polls don't vote...

Look more carefully, the PQ led the Liberals by 11. CAQ was in 2nd.

[warandwar]

Is it too early to say the PQ has "s’autopeluredebananiser"

[DL]

Thats about what I suspected...well needless to say if the PQ goes from leading the Libs by 5% in "450" to trailing them by 2% this time - it would be absolutely LETHAL to their chances of winning. Of course polls don't vote...

Look more carefully, the PQ led the Liberals by 11. CAQ was in 2nd.

Is it my imagination or does there seem to be a pretty consistent pattern in polls of the PQ vote being stalled while the CAQ vote is shifting en masse to the Liberals?

[Hatman 🍁]

Thats about what I suspected...well needless to say if the PQ goes from leading the Libs by 5% in "450" to trailing them by 2% this time - it would be absolutely LETHAL to their chances of winning. Of course polls don't vote...

Look more carefully, the PQ led the Liberals by 11. CAQ was in 2nd.

Is it my imagination or does there seem to be a pretty consistent pattern in polls of the PQ vote being stalled while the CAQ vote is shifting en masse to the Liberals?

That seems to be the trend.

[Hatman 🍁]

CROP regional numbers from 308. He doesn't give the sample size for each region, unfortunately.

Island of Montreal
PLQ: 44
PQ: 34
CAQ: 10
QS: 10
ON: 1
Oth: 1

450
PLQ: 39
PQ: 37
CAQ: 13
QS: 9
ON: 0
Oth: 1

Quebec CMA
PLQ: 36
PQ: 27
CAQ 23
QS: 12
ON: 1
Oth: 1

ROQ
PQ: 38
PLQ: 36
CAQ: 13
QS: 11
ON: 1
Oth: 1

[Zanas]

QS seems higher, which would sound consistent with a reject of Péladeau. I guess that operation didn't go very well, did it ? Well, serves the PQ right ! If it can help them not be so corporate fetishist and a little more with the people, so be it.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've calculate the true "450" results from the 2012 election. (Last time I reported on Montreal CMA numbers outside the Island of Montreal, but the 450 includes 13 more ridings outside the CMA)

The results aren't that much different:

PQ: 36.5
CAQ: 31.7
PLQ: 23.8
QS: 4.5
ON: 1.6
PVQ: 1.1
Oth: 0.8

What it does show is that the Liberal gain is that much more impressive if the CROP poll is correct.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Beware of poll internals

[Hatman 🍁]

Beware of poll internals

All polls are to be feared (at least, in Canada), but how else can I do projections?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm not saying that you should dismiss them entirely. In Canada in particular what choice do you have? But, you know, be careful. If something looks wrong, then it probably is...

[MaxQue]

I'm pretty sure PQ won 450 area since 1976 (they perhaps lost it in 2007), and I don't see why those would suddently swing massively to Liberals.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Presumably the PLQ led there in 1985?

[Hatman 🍁]

It makes sense that the PQ vote wouldn't budge in the region (and according to the poll, it actually gains 1%). The CAQ vote collapsing into the Liberals is also common to what is happening in Quebec City. Not horribly far fetched.

[RogueBeaver]

ROFL.

PQ switching strategy: ethics, charter and a Marois-PKP-Drainville trio. They tried the latter in '03 with Landry-Marois, we know how that turned out. Charter's low on the priority list, but depending on who that 27% is...

PQ going after Couillard on ethics depends on whether people care more about Dr. Porter or "le deal."

Cabinet material for the PQ/PLQ.

[RogueBeaver]

Drainville calls Couillard a vendu in all but name. So they don't use that word, but do keep a candidate with anti-Semitic writings.