Quebec: April 7, 2014

[RogueBeaver]

Uh, I think this G&M article is very strange. In recent decades we've had Bourassa, Parizeau and now Marois who could classify as wealthy. Before that Taschereau. Personally I couldn't care less what my premier's net worth is.

[Hatman 🍁]

FR Regional breaks (change since last poll)

Montreal CMA

PLQ: 48 (-1)
PQ: 28 (-2)
CAQ: 14 (+5)
QS: 7 (-2)
PVQ: 2 (n/c)
ON: 1 (+1)
Oth: 1 (n/c)


Quebec City CMA

PLQ: 47 (+1)
CAQ: 27 (+6)
PQ: 17 (-10)
QS: 7 (+3)
PVQ: 1 (+1)
Other: 1 (n/c)


North Shore

PQ: 41 (+6)
PLQ: 34 (-11)
CAQ: 16 (+4)
QS: 6 (n/c)
PVQ: 1 (n/c)
ON: 1 (+1)


South Shore

PLQ: 31 (-7)
PQ: 30 (-6)
CAQ: 25 (+7)
QS: 10 (+6)
ON: 2 (+2)
PVQ: 1 (-2)
Oth: 1 (n/c)

[RogueBeaver]

More fundraising issues, and the PLQ preps transition.

Health policy.

[RogueBeaver]

Confirmation of what we knew: there is no right-wing party and hasn't been one for 44 years. ADQ is only a partial exception. Though I blame cardiology and leadership, not voters...

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals are more left than the PQ? Another reason to be happy about a potential Liberal win.

[RogueBeaver]

The Liberals are more left than the PQ? Another reason to be happy about a potential Liberal win.

This is why I feel so disconnected from provincial politics: don't have anyone to vote for. Was born far too late.

[MaxQue]

The Liberals are more left than the PQ? Another reason to be happy about a potential Liberal win.

The article is saying than currently, PQ is more to the left than PLQ.
But, it's very fishy. Apparently, PQ is trending to the left in the last decade and CAQ is at the same place than Liberals.

No.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals are more left than the PQ? Another reason to be happy about a potential Liberal win.

This is why I feel so disconnected from provincial politics: don't have anyone to vote for. Was born far too late.

Ehh, you still have the provincial Tories.  Just because they're a fringe party is no reason to not exercise your right to vote.

Anyways, I finally got around to updating my projection (change from Mar 20):

PLQ: 66 (-2)
PQ: 54 (+2)
CAQ: 3
QS: 2

Basically St-Maurice, Ungava and Abitibi-Est flip PQ
Dubuc flips to PLQ

[RogueBeaver]

'08 all over again. If the PQ loses, who leads them next? Lisee or Drainville? If Marois wins she'd probably dump Duschesne due to underperformance, that was reported a few weeks ago.

[MaxQue]

'08 all over again. If the PQ loses, who leads them next? Lisee or Drainville? If Marois wins she'd probably dump Duschesne due to underperformance, that was reported a few weeks ago.

Wouldn't TVA push Péladeau candidacy?

[RogueBeaver]

'08 all over again. If the PQ loses, who leads them next? Lisee or Drainville? If Marois wins she'd probably dump Duschesne due to underperformance, that was reported a few weeks ago.

Wouldn't TVA push Péladeau candidacy?

The guy who'd be largely responsible for their loss? Which reminds me: PLQ is running out of potential leaders. Only one left is Moreau, who's basically Charest without the personality and campaign skills. Need some 20 or 30-somethings with star potential IMO, but that's as foreign to the PLQ as charisma or populism.

[Hatman 🍁]

'08 all over again.

The polls are remarkably close to the PV in 2008. Good news for CAQ, maybe? Problem is, much of their support is being wasted in the 450 where it's too evenly spread to have them win a seat.  It's possible Legault could win his district, though.

Speaking of leaders, my projection has Marois in trouble. I wonder how realistic that is? The seat did go Liberal before 1994. She only won by 5000 votes in 2012, and the Liberals have a strong lead in Capitale-Nationale.

[cp]

Whether or not TVA shills for Peladeau I fully expect he'll run for the leadership. It always struck me a bit fishy that someone so prominent in business would willingly give it up to run for office in a contested election, even if it meant a spot in Cabinet. Has there been any polling in his district to indicate whether or not he'll win? Saint-Jerome has been a rather swingy riding lately. With the PQ down and the CAQ up PKP might be SOL.

On a different note, and at the risk of jumping the gun a bit, what was the last time that a ruling party voluntarily submitted to an election - not voted down via non-confidence or obliged by term limits - and lost outright (i.e. not 'returned with a minority/reduced majority)?

[RogueBeaver]

Whether or not TVA shills for Peladeau I fully expect he'll run for the leadership. It always struck me a bit fishy that someone so prominent in business would willingly give it up to run for office in a contested election, even if it meant a spot in Cabinet. Has there been any polling in his district to indicate whether or not he'll win? Saint-Jerome has been a rather swingy riding lately. With the PQ down and the CAQ up PKP might be SOL.

On a different note, and at the risk of jumping the gun a bit, what was the last time that a ruling party voluntarily submitted to an election - not voted down via non-confidence or obliged by term limits - and lost outright (i.e. not 'returned with a minority/reduced majority)?

Huh? Since 1960 no one has won more than 2 consecutive majorities. Last time a first-term government defeated: 1970, when the UN had been imploding for 18 months. Only 2 other times in a century: 1939 and 1944.

[RogueBeaver]

For the other question: PKP ran because he wanted to be premier after an interval at Finance. If he can't be premier he'll leave fairly quickly.

[RogueBeaver]

308 projection: 64/55/5/2, 42/31/17. Liberal vote inefficiency for us, again. Not at its finest though.

Also: CTV will have the CROP in an hour.

[cp]

For the other question: PKP ran because he wanted to be premier after an interval at Finance. If he can't be premier he'll leave fairly quickly.

Has that been documented somewhere? It seems like a plausible explanation, for sure, but I'd be surprised if even someone like him would be so brazen as to say it out loud.

To clarify, those governments that served two terms had come to the end of their mandate (or very nearly to the end). I would count those as having been forced into an election by term limits. As a contrasting example, David Peterson's Ontario Liberal government had a majority in 1990 and had several years left in its term; he called an election early and was defeated. I'd count that as 'voluntarily submitting to an election'.

[MaxQue]

For the other question: PKP ran because he wanted to be premier after an interval at Finance. If he can't be premier he'll leave fairly quickly.

Has that been documented somewhere? It seems like a plausible explanation, for sure, but I'd be surprised if even someone like him would be so brazen as to say it out loud.

To clarify, those governments that served two terms had come to the end of their mandate (or very nearly to the end). I would count those as having been forced into an election by term limits. As a contrasting example, David Peterson's Ontario Liberal government had a majority in 1990 and had several years left in its term; he called an election early and was defeated. I'd count that as 'voluntarily submitting to an election'.

Bourassa in 1976. He wanted to surf on the Montreal Olympics success.

[cp]

1976? The one that elected the PQ for the first time and ushered in a generational shift in Quebec politics? Yikes! Not the most auspicious precedent for Marois.

[RogueBeaver]

It's been all but confirmed by top political reporters and is a very safe assumption to make. When directly asked the leadership question a few weeks ago he didn't even deny it, just said he wanted to serve St. Jerome.

[RogueBeaver]

1976? The one that elected the PQ for the first time and ushered in a generational shift in Quebec politics? Yikes! Not the most auspicious precedent for Marois.

Bourassa did it in 1973 before the oil shock hit, thought it would work again. Before him Duplessis in 1939, though both men recovered politically.

[RogueBeaver]

Another winning example: Lesage in '62.

[cp]

Hmm, seems like a pretty common tactic in Quebec politics after all. There's probably a good poli sci paper in analyzing how effective early election calls are for governments in Canada, but damned if I'm going to research/write it!

[RogueBeaver]

Ipsos has 37/29/19/13. Narrow PLQ majority, also says PLQ/PQ tied among Francophones. CROP will drop in 25-odd minutes. If these hold up, PLQ is on the minority/majority threshold. At which I'd be very relieved.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ipsos Regional breaks:

Quebec City
PLQ: 37 (+10)
PQ: 24 (-6)
CAQ: 24 (-4)
QS: 11 (+3)
ON: 1 (n/c)
Oth: 3 (-3)

Montreal Island
PLQ: 45 (-3)
PQ: 23 (-2)
QS: 19 (+9)
CAQ: 9 (n/c)
ON: 1 (-3)
Oth: 3 (-1)

Montreal suburbs
PQ: 32 (-7)
PLQ: 28 (-5)
CAQ: 22 (+5)
QS: 14 (+5)
ON: 1 (n/c)
Oth: 3 (+2)

Rest of Quebec
PLQ: 39 (+2)
PQ: 28 (-4)
CAQ: 21 (+6)
QS: 10 (-1)
Oth: 1 (-2)
ON: 0 (-2)

BTW, RB - We will be doing a poll too (not sure when we're releasing it though)