NC-PPP: Tied up
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Author Topic: NC-PPP: Tied up  (Read 2364 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: February 13, 2014, 10:50:43 AM »

No real change from last month. Hagan trails Tillis and Harris 42/40, her approval is 41/50. Tillis still at 20% among all Pubs but at 30% among those who've decided.
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moderatevoter
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« Reply #1 on: February 13, 2014, 11:00:04 AM »

Ted Alexander, wow...
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krazen1211
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« Reply #2 on: February 13, 2014, 01:32:17 PM »

Great news!
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: February 13, 2014, 03:05:45 PM »

The Harper R poll had it 44 even. I don't think a tie is glorious news. She should win, though.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #4 on: February 13, 2014, 03:09:58 PM »

She's not going to win a razor-thin election in a midterm year. Not in a big state that narrowly voted Romney.

Still a lot of time for the GOP candidate to screw up and give her an opening, but I'd rate this one as tilt GOP if she can't get out of the margin of error.
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Miles
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« Reply #5 on: February 13, 2014, 06:42:49 PM »

I honestly have no idea why Alexander perform so well. He's just as unknown as the other Republicans.
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SamInTheSouth
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« Reply #6 on: February 14, 2014, 05:14:06 PM »

The Harper R poll had it 44 even. I don't think a tie is glorious news. She should win, though.

Disagree.  I think Hagan's goose is cooked.  Incumbents don't trail and come back to win unless their opponent makes a huge, embarrassing gaffe ie. Todd Akin or Sharron Angle.
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Vosem
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« Reply #7 on: February 14, 2014, 07:09:18 PM »

I wonder if Ellmers/Berry/Forest are regretting not getting into this race. I honestly think even Renee would be leading the primary by double-digits and approaching that figure in the general.
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: February 14, 2014, 07:18:44 PM »

NC has always had competetive races. She was polling under 50 percent when she had those huge leads. Hagen needs to win in any of our hopes to retain senate.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #9 on: February 14, 2014, 07:22:17 PM »

Counting Hagan out at this point is a mistake, but whatever.
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Sol
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« Reply #10 on: February 18, 2014, 08:46:04 AM »

I wonder if Ellmers/Berry/Forest are regretting not getting into this race. I honestly think even Renee would be leading the primary by double-digits and approaching that figure in the general.
Lolno.
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windjammer
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« Reply #11 on: February 18, 2014, 08:52:18 AM »

I wonder if Ellmers/Berry/Forest are regretting not getting into this race. I honestly think even Renee would be leading the primary by double-digits and approaching that figure in the general.
Lolno.

And your forget Virginia Foxx Vosem
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Vosem
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« Reply #12 on: February 18, 2014, 10:19:31 AM »

I wonder if Ellmers/Berry/Forest are regretting not getting into this race. I honestly think even Renee would be leading the primary by double-digits and approaching that figure in the general.
Lolno.

And your forget Virginia Foxx Vosem

Not really; Virginia Foxx is far older than your typical Senate freshman (she's 70), and she'll probably retire at some point in the near future; Foxx speculation was always weird. Whereas Ellmers/Berry/Forest would all be far more typical (and stronger, including I think Ellmers) Senate candidates than anyone we have right now; they all seemed to legitimately consider for a while, then decline.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #13 on: February 18, 2014, 10:31:29 AM »

Ellmers is a crap fundraiser, which is enough of a Pub problem as is. Pub bench is a mile wide and an inch deep.
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Vosem
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« Reply #14 on: February 18, 2014, 12:47:21 PM »

Ellmers is a crap fundraiser, which is enough of a Pub problem as is. Pub bench is a mile wide and an inch deep.

I don't think her crap fundraising would've discouraged the (already massive) amounts of outside money in this race...
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Sol
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« Reply #15 on: February 18, 2014, 01:00:12 PM »

The point is that Ellmers is pretty unpopular and uncharismatic. She's perceived as being gaffe-prone and incompetent, and would actually probably be a weaker candidate than Tillis.

I can't speak about Berry, but Forest is a right-wing loon. He almost lost in 2012, and, in addition to his extreme conservatism, would also be fairly easy to tarnish with the General Assembly's brush.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: February 18, 2014, 02:11:49 PM »

Sue Myrick or Patrick McHenry probably would've been the strongest candidates.
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Miles
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« Reply #17 on: February 18, 2014, 02:16:13 PM »

Sue Myrick or Patrick McHenry probably would've been the strongest candidates.

PPP tested Myrick when they first started polling the race and she made it close, IIRC. McHenry is too partisan, IMO.
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Sol
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« Reply #18 on: February 18, 2014, 03:47:05 PM »

Yeah, going for Gov. instead of Senate was a tactical error on McCrory's part- he'd probably be a lot more popular.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #19 on: February 21, 2014, 05:55:54 PM »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2014-02-09

Summary: D: 40%, R: 42%, U: 18%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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