Which flips first in a Presidential election -- NE-most vs. NW-most?
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  Which flips first in a Presidential election -- NE-most vs. NW-most?
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Poll
Question: Which flips first, Maine or Washington state?
#1
Maine
 
#2
Washington
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 33

Author Topic: Which flips first in a Presidential election -- NE-most vs. NW-most?  (Read 681 times)
Mr. Illini
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« on: February 10, 2014, 04:50:38 PM »

Maine vs. WA state
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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #1 on: February 10, 2014, 05:47:54 PM »

Washington has a higher Obama approval rating:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/167063/hawaiians-residents-approving-obama-2013.aspx

While Washington has a higher conservative leaning:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/167144/wyoming-residents-conservative-liberal.aspx
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: February 10, 2014, 06:19:02 PM »

Maine is easier to swing voters, while Washington has a solid base in the Seattle area.
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« Reply #3 on: February 10, 2014, 06:26:10 PM »

Also, Washington appears to be moving more and more in the Democratic path, it has trended Democratic in each of the last three elections.
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henster
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« Reply #4 on: February 10, 2014, 06:32:28 PM »

If Rob McKenna couldn't win WA state in 2012 how could any national Republican? McKenna was probably one of the most liberal Republican candidates in the U.S. I just can't see any Republican breaking through to King County in the near future. I could see Maine flipping if there's a strong third party ticket.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #5 on: February 11, 2014, 06:48:39 AM »

Technically Alaska is both the most northeastern and the most northwestern state.
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jamesyons
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« Reply #6 on: February 12, 2014, 10:44:35 PM »

Although on paper Maine would seem to be easier for Republicans to win, with Romney's bad performance there, I would say Washington is easier.  With Romney for seems like a good fit for Maine, he only won one county (same as McCain).  It seems that Maine will never vote for a Republican in a presidential election even if Susan Collins or Olympia Snowe easily wins.  On the other hand Republicans have a base to build on in Washington with the entire state east of the Cascades along with historically Democratic areas along the Columbia River and west of Olympia trending Republican.  If Republicans give up on opposing gay marriage then they should be able to do well in the wealthy, heavily white suburbs of Seattle (Bellevue, Redmond, Auburn, Mercer Island).  Although people say that Rob McKenna tried to use this formula, he faced a Democrat who was from the Seattle suburbs and was not extremely liberal, this led to him falling short because at the same time Kim Wyman won the race for secretary of state.  Also turnout was very high with marijuana and gay marriage on the ballot which made it very difficult for a Republican to win.
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Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends
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« Reply #7 on: February 13, 2014, 06:32:52 AM »

I would say Maine, for reasons others have mentioned, namely the higher number of swing voters, and the higher frequency of electing Republicans to other offices.
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