Hillary in Nevada

[JRP1994]

So, I have a question. I'll risk making a generalization by saying that it's generally-accepted conventional wisdom, at this point, that Hillary Clinton will have a more difficult time winning Colorado than Barack Obama had. If she's only barely winning it now, before any negatives of a campaign begin to take a toll on her approval rating, it's a sign that she may perform weakly in this state.

My question is: why does everyone assume that she will easily win Nevada? Their voting margins are not *ALL* that different across the last 3 elections:

2004
Colorado: R+4.67%
Nevada: R+2.59%
Difference in Margin: Nevada 2.08% more Democratic

2008
Colorado: D+8.95%
Nevada: D+12.49%
Difference in Margin: Nevada 3.54% more Democratic

2012
Colorado: D+5.37%
Nevada: D+6.68%
Difference in Margin: Nevada 1.31% more Democratic

I guess my question is this - if, in the past 10 years, the margin between CO and NV has been consistently 3.5% or less, why would one assume that, if Hillary is struggling in Colorado, that the trouble wouldn't manifest itself in Nevada as well?

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

I believe (though I don't have any numbers to verify this) that Hispanics have a larger share of the vote in Nevada than in Colorado.  I'm not sure, though.

EDIT: Just checked.  They do.

[senyor_brownbear]

She will win Nevada because Obama won Nevada in 2012.  That was honestly the best case scenario for the GOP and Romney even wrote it off in the last month.

Nevada was a Clinton state in the 2008 primary. The state will be even more Hispanic in 2016.  Reid will have his machine in overdrive for his own sake.  More people will vote early/absentee (and it was 70% in 2012).

[Person Man]

How will demographics change in the next 3 years in either state that will make them vote differently than what we will expect them to? With a more normal economy, we can probably expect demographic and population change to go back to how it was change during the Clinton and Bush years.

[eric82oslo]

The reason why Nevada didn't vote more overwhelmingly for Obama was that the state was by very far the state worst hit by the financial crisis - having an unemployment rate skyrocketing above every other state. The unemployment rate in Nevada will of course be much, much lower in 2016 than it was in 2012. Plus, Hillary is obviously not Obama, so she can't take the blame for a bad economy/high unemployment rate in any case.

As others have pointed out, the minority percentage is so much higher in Nevada than in Colorado. In 2010 the non-white (including latinos) made up 30% in Colorado, but a whooping 46% in Nevada. Meaning that whites that year had a 40% advantage in Colorado, but only an 8% advantage in Nevada. That's a 5 times stronger advantage in Colorado! In fact, Nevada is about to become minority majority within the next 2-3 years. Probably that will happen even before the 2016 election in November that year. I'd say Colorado's die hard conservative hardline Republicans are also much more famous than their peers in Nevada. Also, almost the entire population in Nevada lives in or just outside of Las Vegas. There are almost no rural population in the state, due to the desert like climate. Colorado's population is much more rural, and not only because it's the main ski resort destination in the Americas.

[TDAS04]

I would be surprised if she doesn't easily win Nevada. 

[Lief 🗽]

The Republican candidate in 2016 will ignore Nevada, just like Mitt Romney ignored the formerly competitive New Mexico in 2012.

[Person Man]

The reason why Nevada didn't vote more overwhelmingly for Obama was that the state was by very far the state worst hit by the financial crisis - having an unemployment rate skyrocketing above every other state. The unemployment rate in Nevada will of course be much, much lower in 2016 than it was in 2012. Plus, Hillary is obviously not Obama, so she can't take the blame for a bad economy/high unemployment rate in any case.

As others have pointed out, the minority percentage is so much higher in Nevada than in Colorado. In 2010 the non-white (including latinos) made up 30% in Colorado, but a whooping 46% in Nevada. Meaning that whites that year had a 40% advantage in Colorado, but only an 8% advantage in Nevada. That's a 5 times stronger advantage in Colorado! In fact, Nevada is about to become minority majority within the next 2-3 years. Probably that will happen even before the 2016 election in November that year. I'd say Colorado's die hard conservative hardline Republicans are also much more famous than their peers in Nevada. Also, almost the entire population in Nevada lives in or just outside of Las Vegas. There are almost no rural population in the state, due to the desert like climate. Colorado's population is much more rural, and not only because it's the main ski resort destination in the Americas.

In other words, winning without Colorado may be difficult for Democrats but losing Nevada means you probably already lost.

[Indy Texas]

Nevada is more Hispanic; a large share of the economy comes from hospitality and tourism (which are very unionized there), and from military and scientific research (which depend on government spending); most of the Republicans in Nevada are Mormons, so their turnout and energy was pretty much maxed out in 2012 and they still couldn't flip the state back.

In Colorado, you're dealing with a lot more of the "Stuff White People Like" kind of white people who never really liked Hillary that much and may be willing to vote for a moderate, socially inoffensive Republican; also, the gun control issues may turn some white voters there off of the Democrats, though most of those people were probably never voting Dem to begin with.

[MurrayBannerman]

This all depends on the competition for the Hispanic vote. If Hillary tries to play Colorado with a Bennett VP, the Republicans could tap Martinez and snatch up New Mexico and Nevada.

[Indy Texas]

This all depends on the competition for the Hispanic vote. If Hillary tries to play Colorado with a Bennett VP, the Republicans could tap Martinez and snatch up New Mexico and Nevada.

Thinking candidates can win states they otherwise wouldn't by picking a certain VP.

You have much to learn here, young whippersnapper.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Hillary won't need Colorado to win in 2016 if she's already favored to win Florida.

Per 2010, Colorado is 20.65% Hispanic while Nevada is 26.53% Hispanic. Nevada is also only 54.14% non-Hispanic white compared to Colorado which is 70.01% non-Hispanic white; that might explain the difference. She did well with Hispanics in 2008 so if they stick with her again in 2016, Nevada should be at least a leans Hillary state.

[jamesyons]

As stated already, I agree that Clinton should win Nevada by at least an 8 point margin considering that Republicans have had trouble winning especially with their troubles in doing well in Reno.  Also Las Vegas economy and population growth is starting to rebound and this only hurting Republicans with the large Democratic base that provides a large margin for Democrats with Las Vegas.  The base in Las Vegas was not especially enthusiastic for Obama with the economy and Hispanics mostly support Hillary in 2008.  The margin there will only increase and as said already the Republican base is mostly Mormon and Romney would as well with them as any Republican would.