Your Current 2014 House Ratings

[publicunofficial]

I'm interested in seeing everyone's current views now that most of the House races are pretty well defined, barring a few more surprise retirements. Feel free to provide rationale for your ratings.

Safe D:
CA-31 (Miller)

The only way Miller makes it to the 114th Congress is a repeat of the 2012 primary. Even if some random R activist/plant decides to get in in the next few months, I doubt he/she gets enough support to make it the Top Two, and any of the Democrats currently in the race could probably beat the party-line conservative Miller in a district that Barbara Boxer even won in 2010.


Likely D:
CA-26 (Brownley)
FL-18 (Murphy)
IA-01 (OPEN)
IL-12 (Enyart)
IL-17 (Bustos)
MN-07 (Peterson)
NH-02 (Kuster)
NV-04 (Horsford)
NY-18 (Maloney)


These are all races that could become competitive, but that the GOP doesn't appear to be contesting hard enough to make me think they'll pull off a win.

FL-18 started off looking like it would be one of the most competitive races this cycle as it was in 2012, but Murphy's incredible fundraising totals and sudden popularity will most likely crush any of the current C-Tier candidates currently running, and all the possible strong candidates the GOP could have ran (Adam Hasner) have already declined.

In other races, acclaimed GOP recruits just seem to be falling short. Poor fundraising totals by State Rep. Mike Bost in IL-12, State Rep. Marilinda Garcia in NH-02, and former Reps. Bobby Schilling and Nan Hayworth in IL-17 and NY-18, make me heavily doubt their chances against fairly strong incumbents.

The GOP has been almost entirely quiet in NV-04, IA-01, and CA-26, and those races will probably move into the Safe D category unless that changes.

Finally, Collin Peterson's fairly mild fundraising totals are still high enough to make me think he'll easily defeat State Sen. Torrey Westrom, who's raised even weaker numbers. The only thing keeping this race from the Safe D column is the possibility of Peterson retiring, which would make this race an R-favored Toss-Up.


Lean D:
AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick)
AZ-09 (Sinema)
CA-07 (Bera)
CA-36 (Ruiz)
CA-52 (Peters)
GA-12 (Barrow)
IL-10 (Schneider)
MA-06 (Tierney)
ME-02 (OPEN)
NH-01 (Shea-Porter)
NY-01 (Bishop)
TX-23 (Gallego)

In Arizona, Kirkpatrick and Sinema are both very strong incumbents who have so far succeeded in making themselves out to be moderates. Sinema in particular strikes me as a very adept politician. Both women also have had a series of steady fundraising hauls, and both races have very competitive GOP primaries which will weaken the eventual winner (State Reps. Adam Kwasman and Andy Tobin in AZ-01, Air Force veteran Wendy Rogers and former NFL quarterback Andrew Walter in AZ-09). The GOP won't let these two slip by easily, but right now I'd say they are favored.

In California, the Republicans have a trio of races where they have landed solid to decent recruits, and could very well win in November, but different factors hinder them in each.

In CA-07, Ami Bera has kept up his good fundraising and moderate image that allowed him to beat Dan Lungren in 2012. Bera also benefits from another split Republican field, with former Rep. Doug Ose against former Tom McClintock Chief of Staff Igor Birman (Elizabeth Emken is also running here, but is irrelevant). Bera has  a strong fundraising advantage over all of his opponents, and will most likely triumph in this suburban district filled with state employees.

In CA-36, Raul Ruiz is absolutely dominating his opponent, Assemblyman Brian Nestande, in fundraising. It's hard to see Nestande prevailing where an established semi-popular incumbent like Mary Bono failed, even with decreased turnout in a heavily Hispanic district.

CA-52 is a race many have as a Toss-Up, but I just don't believe the GOP hype about Carl DeMaio. DeMaio may have won this district in his mayoral race, but running for Congress and running for Mayor are too different things, and Scott Peters isn't Bob Filner. And while DeMaio is moderate socially, I think he's too far-right on other positions that Peters is sure to make an issue of. The California GOP hasn't defeated an incumbent Congressman since 1994, and I don't think 2014 will be their year either.

TX-23 and GA-12 both have incumbent Blue Dogs who are a good fit for their district and fundraising totals that absolutely obliterate their opponents (With costly GOP primaries to get through). Pete Gallego's primary fear should be Hispanic turnout, while John Barrow's should probably be State Rep. Delvis Dutton, who announced today and may be what the GOP needs to win here.

Unlike other one-termers who lost last cycle and are trying again in 2014, Robert Dold has kept up his fundraising in IL-10, enough to keep things competitive. Schneider is no slouch though, and his moderate profile, the gerrymandered lines of IL-10, and his newfound incumbency will probably allow him to squeak out another win. Still, if I had to pick a GOP upset in 2014, I'd guess it'd be here.

ME-02 could easily become competitive, but I don't think either former State Senate President Kevin Raye or former Treasurer Bruce Polquin have what it takes to win this slightly D-leaning district. Whoever makes it through the D primary, State Sen. Emily Cain or State Sen. Maj. Leader Troy Jackson, will probably be favored here unless the tide really turns against Democrats nationally.

MA-06 is essentially the same race it was in 2012, except Tierney's scandal is less potent and he now has a primary challenge to deal with. I think Tierney will be slightly favored over Richard Tisei again, and if he loses his primary to moderate veteran Seth Moulton, who outraised him this quarter, then this race moves to Safe D.

Finally, Tim Bishop's incumbency will probably be enough to protect him against State Sen. Lee Zeldin, that is if George Demos doesn't do Bishop's work for him first. Still, Bishop's fundraising worries me and this is definitely a race the GOP should pull out all the stops for.

Toss-Up:
AZ-02 (Barber)
CO-06 (Coffman)
FL-02 (Southerland)
FL-13 (OPEN)
FL-26 (Garcia)
IA-03 (OPEN)
IL-13 (Davis)
NJ-03 (OPEN)
NY-21 (OPEN)
VA-10 (OPEN)
WV-03 (Rahall)

These races have been talked about to death, and there's not much insight I can write here that frequenters of this forum don't already know, and this post is big enough already. Moving on.


Lean R:
AR-02 (OPEN)
MI-01 (Benishek)
MI-07 (Walberg)
NY-11 (Grimm)
NY-21 (Gibson)
NY-23 (Reed)
PA-06 (OPEN)
MT-AL (OPEN)
WV-02 (OPEN)


The Arkansas 2nd is a race I was initially excited about following the sudden retirement of Tim Griffin, but this quarter featured Republican frontrunner and banker French Hill destroy likely Democratic nominee former North Little Rock Mayor Pat Hays. Still, both Mike Ross and Mark Pryor will likely carry this district even if they both loose, and Hays could still surprise me.

In Michigan, Democrats have pretty decent recruits against fairly underwhelming incumbents. Former General Jerry Cannon outraised Dan Benishek this past quarter, but that doesn't solve Cannon's main flaw: He isn't a Yooper. And while former Rep. Pam Byrnes is pretty good wave insurance against chronic under-performer Tim Walberg, the Michigan GOP drew a gerrymander strong enough to keep their incumbents in office for the decade that she can't overcome.

In NY-11, Michael Grimm has done everything he can do to make his re-election tougher for himself, from fundraising scandals to threatening to murder a reporter to sex in the bathroom of bars. Grimm's saving grace will most likely be that his opponent, City Councilman Dominic Recchia, is from the Brooklyn part of the district and not it's Staten Island base.

NY-19 has a Democratic challenger that may excite some, but I'm just not that hopeful or enthused for. Sean Eldridge has money and charisma, but I doubt that'll be enough to fight attacks that he's a carpetbagger (true) or that his job description is basically "married to a rich guy" (also true). Gibson's moderate views will likely allow him to coast to re-election.

Nearby in NY-23, Thomas Reed  won by a relatively slim margin in 2012 in a race that nobody was watching. Reed's opponent, Martha Robertson, is a much better recruit that Recchia or Eldridge, and her fundraising is toe-to-toe with Reed's. Reed's massive cash-on-hand advantage, the districts slim R-lean, and Reed's moderate image will likely allow him to win, but this is a race to watch.

PA-06 features several decent Republican candidates running in a R-leaning district, while Democrats have settled for first-time nominee and newfound Democrat businnesman Michael Parrish. I'm not expecting a whole lot out of this race.

MT-AL is a race I'm growing more optimistic about by the day. The Republicans have two leading candidates: State Sen. Corey Stapleton and State Sen. Ryan Zinke, neither of whom are exactly A-Grade candidates. Democrats, meanwhile, have decided on former Baucus staffer John Lewis to be their nominee, and his campaign seems to be going relatively well. If Zinke is the nominee, I'd be tempted to move this to Toss-Up.

Last but certainly not least, the West Virginia 2nd might just be a bright spot in Democratic futures in West Virginia. The Democratic nominee, former state party chairman Nick Casey, has a good profile and decent fundraising, especially compared to the  candidates Republican side of the race. Should former Maryland State Senator Alex Mooney become the nominee for the Republicans (And I suspect he will), I'll likely move this race to toss-up.

Likely R:
AR-04 (OPEN)
CA-10 (Denham)
CA-21 (Valadao)
CA-25 (OPEN)
IN-02 (Walorski)
KY-06 (Barr)
MI-11 (Bentivolio)
MN-02 (Kline)
NJ-02 (LoBiondo)
NM-02 (Pearce)
NV-03 (Heck)
OH-06 (Johnson)
OH-14 (Joyce)
PA-08 (Fitzpatrick)
VA-02 (Rigell)
WV-01 (McKinley)

These are either races where Democrats should simply wait until another cycle (CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, PA-08, NJ-02), have failed in recruit good challengers (NV-03, OH-14, KY-06), or have landed decent challengers but just have the odds stacked against them (WV-01, NM-02, OH-06).

Safe R:
NC-07 (OPEN)
UT-04 (OPEN)

Not much to say here. The only competitiveness here is the Republican primary in NC-07, but that won't affect the general.

[NewYorkExpress]

Alaska
 At-Large CD, Likely R (And this assumes the Democrats even get a candidate)



Arizona

CD-1 Tossup with Kwasman and Tobin, Lean R with Kiehne
CD-2 Lean R with McSally, Lean D with Kais
CD-3 Likely D (It's very unlikely to flip... but in a 2010/1994 vintage wave...)
CD 9 Likely D with Rogers and Lean D with Walter

Arkansas

CD 2 Safe R with Hays and Clemmer, Likely R with Reynolds
CD-4 Safe R if Westerman vs Perceful, Lean D if Witt vs Moll, Likely R if Witt vs Westerman

California

CD-7 Safe D with Emken, Likely D with Birman, Lean D with Ose
CD-10 Lean R (National Climate probably won't help Eggman here)
CD-21 Tossup with Renteria, Lean R with Hernandez
CD-25 Safe R with Strickland, Lean R with Knight
CD-26 Tossup with Gorell, Safe D Dagnesses
CD-31 Miller vs Gomez Reyes, Lean R, Miller vs Tillman Lean R, Miller vs Baca Likely D, Miller vs Aguilar Lean D
CD-42, Likely D with Condely and Sheridan, Safe D with Marquez and Roberts
CD-45 Likely R with Walters and Maciarello, Lean R with Moorlach, Tossup with Raths (of course this is dependent on Democrats getting a candidate)
CD-52 Tossup/Tilt D With DeMaio, Lean D with Jorgenson

Colorado
CD-3 Likely R (Tipton should be more vulnerable but no one has stepped up yet...)
CD-6 Likely D



Florida
CD-2 Tossup
CD-8 Safe R
CD-13 Tossup if Sink wins the special, Tossup Tilt/R if a Republican wins the Special
CD-18 Lean D with Andel, Domino and Turnquest, Likely D with Katz, Wukoson and Hires, Safe D with Schlesinger
CD-19 Likely R with Clawson, Giambardo, Gibens, Rossano and Driekom, Safe R with Beinaquisto
CD-26 Tossup against Curbelo and McDougal, Lean R against Martinez, Safe R against Felix-Diaz


Georgia
CD-12 Tossup/Tilt R


Idaho
CD-1 Likely R

Illinois
CD-3 Likely D
CD-8 Lean D with Goel, Likely D with Kaifesh
CD-10 Lean D
CD-11 Tossup with Balkema, Robbins and Miller, Lean D with Bayne, Lean R with Senger
CD-12 Tossup Tilt/R
CD-13 Lean R
CD-17 Tossup Tilt/D


Indiana
CD-2 Lean R with Bock, Safe R with Morrison

Iowa

CD-1 Tossup, Dem Primary is Lean Murphy and GOP Primary is Lean Rogers
CD-2 Lean D
CD-3 Likely D with Cramer and Shaw, Likely R with Schultz, Tossup with Zaun, and Lean D with Grandanette
CD-4 Likely R



Kentucky
CD-6 Likely R


Maine
CD-2 Tossup Tilt/D


Massachusetts

CD-6 Tossup Tilt/D

Michigan
CD-1 Likely R
CD-11 Lean R

Minnesota
CD-1 Lean D
CD-2 Lean D
CD-6 Likely R
CD-7 Tossup Tilt/R
CD-8 Tossup Tilt/D

Montana
CD-AL  Tossup

Nevada
CD-3 Lean R
CD-4 Lean D

New Hampshire
CD-1 Likely D
CD-2 Likely D

New Jersey
CD-2 Lean R
CD-7 Likely R

New Mexico
CD-1 Likely D
CD-2 Likely R

New York
CD-1 Lean R
CD-4 Likely D
CD-11 Tossup Tilt/R
CD-18 Lean D
CD-21 Lean R
CD-23 Likely R
CD-25 Likely D

North Carolina
CD-2 Likely R (Although it really should be safe...)
CD-3 Likely R
CD-6 Likely R
CD-7 Likely R

Ohio
CD-2 Likely R
CD-6 Likely R
CD-7 Lean R

Pennsylvania
CD-5 Likely R
CD-6 Likely R
CD-12 Likely R
CD-13 Likely D
CD-17 Likely D

Rhode Island
CD-1 Likely D

Tennessee
CD-4 Lean R with Desarlais, Safe R without

Utah
CD-4 Safe R with Love, Likely R without

Virginia
CD-2 Likely D
CD-10 Tossup Tilt/D

West Virginia
CD-1 Likely R
CD-3 Lean R with Rahall, Safe R without

Wisconsin
CD-1 Likely R
CD-7 Likely R

[publicunofficial]

As always NYE, your ratings confuse me so heavily I won't even question them.

[publicunofficial]

A few shifts on my part:



IA-01: Likely D to Safe D
MN-07: Likely D to Safe D
NY-21: Toss-Up to Lean R
NE-02: Safe R to Lean R
NC-02: Safe R to Likely R

[publicunofficial]

Full Update:


Safe D:
CA-31 (OPEN)

Likely D:
CA-26 (Brownley)
FL-18 (Murphy)
IL-12 (Enyart)
IL-17 (Bustos)
NH-02 (Kuster)
NV-04 (Horsford)
NY-18 (Maloney)

Lean D
AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick)
AZ-02 (Sinema)
CA-07 (Bera)
CA-36 (Ruiz)
CA-52 (Peters)
GA-12 (Barrow)
IL-10 (Schneider)
MA-06 (Tierney)
NH-01 (Shea-Porter)
NY-01 (Bishop)
TX-23 (Gallego)


Toss-Up
AZ-02 (Barber)
CO-06 (Coffman)
FL-02 (Southerland)
FL-26 (Garcia)
IL-13 (Davis)
IA-03 (OPEN)
NJ-03 (OPEN)
VA-10 (OPEN)
WV-03 (Rahall)


Lean R
AR-02 (OPEN)
CA-21 (Valadao)
FL-13 (Jolly)
MI-01 (Benishek)
MI-07 (Walberg)
MI-11 (Bentivolio)
MT-AL (OPEN)
NE-02 (Terry)
NY-11 (Grimm)
NY-19 (Gibson)
NY-21 (OPEN)
NY-23 (Reed)
PA-06 (OPEN)
WV-02 (OPEN)


Likely R
AR-04 (OPEN)
CA-10 (Denham)
CA-25 (OPEN)
IA-04 (King)
IN-02 (Walorski)
LA-06 (OPEN)
MN-02 (Kline)
NC-02 (Ellmers)
NM-02 (Pearce)
NV-03 (Heck)
NJ-02 (LoBiondo)
OH-06 (Johnson)
OH-14 (Joyce)
PA-08 (Fitzpatrick)
VA-02 (Rigell)
WV-01 (McKinley)

Safe R
NC-07 (OPEN)
UT-04 (OPEN)



Off the Board (No longer competitive):
IA-01 (OPEN)
KY-06 (Barr)
MN-07 (Peterson)


Possible upcoming changes:
NJ-02: Likely R -> Toss-Up/Safe R (We'll know for sure on NJ's filing deadline, March 31st. Most likely Safe R)
AR-01: Safe R -> Likely R (If Jackie McPherson proves to be a strong challenger)
VA-10: Toss-Up -> Lean R (I want to see how Foust and Comstock's fundraising is)
NJ-03: Toss-Up -> Lean D (Again, fundraising/polling on the R primary)

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm going to list these by poll closing times. Safe ratings are not included (which are most of them)

7:00 PM EST

Kentucky:

KY-6 (Likely R)

Indiana:

IN-2 (Likely R)

Virginia:

VA-2 (Lean R)
VA-4 (Likely R)
VA-10 (Lean R)

Georgia:

GA-12 (Lean D)

7:30 EST

North Carolina:

NC-7 (Likely R)

West Virginia:

WV-3 (Toss-Up)
WV-2 (Likely R)

Ohio:

8:00 PM EST

Florida:

FL-2 (Lean R)
FL-13 (Toss-Up)
FL-26 (Lean D)
FL-18 (Toss-Up)

Illinois:

IL-12 (Lean D)
IL-13 (Lean R)
IL-17 (Likely D)
IL-10 (Likely D)

Pennsylvania:

New Jersey:

NJ-3 (Toss-Up)
NJ-2 (Likely R)

Connecticut:

CT-5 (Likely D)

Massachusetts:

MA-6 (Likely D)

New Hampshire:

NH-1 (Lean D)

Maine:

ME-2 (Lean D)

8:30 PM EST

Arkansas:

AR-2 (Lean R)

9:00 PM EST

Texas:

TX-23 (Lean D)

Colorado:

CO-6 (Toss-Up)

Arizona:

AZ-1 (Toss-Up)
AZ-2 (Toss-Up)
AZ-9 (Lean D)

Nebraska:

NE-2 (Likely R)

Minnesota:

MN-1 (Lean D)
MN-2 (Lean R)
MN-3 (Likely R)
MN-8 (Likely D)

Wisconsin:

WI-7 (Likely R)
WI-8 (Likely R)

Michigan:

MI-1 (Lean R)
MI-6 (Likely R)
MI-7 (Likely R)
MI-8 (Likely R)
MI-11 (Lean R)

New York:

NY-1 (Lean D)
NY-2 (Likely R)
NY-3 (Likely D)
NY-11 (Likely R)
NY-18 (Lean D)
NY-19 (Lean R)
NY-21 (Toss-Up)
NY-22 (Likely R)
NY-23 (Likely R)

10:00 PM EST

Iowa:

IA-3 (Toss-Up)

Utah:

UT-4 (Likely R)

Nevada:

NV-3 (Likely R)

I'll finish up the west coast + PA and OH later.

[Morning in Atlas]

7:00 PM EST

Kentucky:

KY-6 (Likely R)

Indiana:

IN-2 (Likely R)

Virginia:

VA-2 (Likely R)
VA-10 (Lean R)

Georgia:

GA-12 (Lean D)

7:30 EST

North Carolina:

NC-7 (Safe R)

West Virginia:

WV-3 (Toss-Up/Tilts R)
WV-2 (Likely R) (Tilts R with Mooney)
WV-1 (Likely R)
Ohio:
OH-6 (Likely R)
OH-7 (Likely R)
OH-14 (Likely R)

8:00 PM EST

Florida:

FL-2 (Toss-Up/Tilts R)
FL-10 (Likely R)
FL-16 (Likely R)
FL-13 (Toss-Up)
FL-26 (Toss-Up)
FL-18 (Leans D)

Illinois:

IL-12 (Likely D)
IL-13 (Lean R)
IL-08 (Likely R)
IL-17 (Leans D)
IL-10 (Leans D)

Pennsylvania:
PA-6 (Leans R)
PA-8 (Leans R)
PA-12 (Likely R)

New Jersey:

NJ-3 (Toss-Up)


Connecticut:

CT-5 (Likely D)

Massachusetts:

MA-6 (Leans D) (Safe D with Moulton)

New Hampshire:

NH-1 (Toss-Up/Tilts D)

Maine:

ME-2 (Lean D)

8:30 PM EST

Arkansas:

AR-2 (Likely R)
AR-4 (Likely R)


9:00 PM EST

Texas:

TX-23 (Likely D)

Colorado:

CO-6 (Toss-Up)

Arizona:

AZ-1 (Toss-Up)
AZ-2 (Toss-Up)
AZ-9 (Leans D)

Louisiana:
LA-6 (Likely R)

New Mexico:

NM-2 (Likely R)

Nebraska:

NE-2 (Leans R)

Minnesota:

MN-2 (Likely R)
MN-3 (Likely R)
MN-7 (Likely D)
MN-8 (Leans D)

Wisconsin:

WI-7 (Likely R)
WI-8 (Likely R)

Michigan:

MI-1 (Lean R)
MI-3 (Likely R)
MI-7 (Leans R)
MI-8 (Leans R)
MI-11 (Leans R)

New York:

NY-1 (Lean D)
NY-11 (Toss-Up/Tilts R)
NY-18 (Leans D)
NY-19 (Leans R)
NY-21 (Toss-Up/Tilt R)
NY-23 (Leans R)

10:00 PM EST

Iowa:

IA-3 (Toss-Up)

Utah:

UT-4 (Safe R)

Nevada:

NV-3 (Leans R)
NV-4 (Likely D)

11:00 PM

California:
CA-7 (Leans D)
CA-10 (Likely R)
CA-21 (Likely R) (Safe R with Fernandez)
CA-25 (Likely R) (Leans R with Knight)
CA-26 (Likely D)
CA-31 (Likely D)
CA-52 (Toss-Up)

[JerryArkansas]

[Gass3268]

Minnesota:

MN-1 (Lean D)
MN-2 (Lean R)
MN-3 (Likely R)
MN-8 (Likely D)

I have never seen MN-1 as anything other than Safe Dem.

[ElectionsGuy]

Minnesota:

MN-1 (Lean D)
MN-2 (Lean R)
MN-3 (Likely R)
MN-8 (Likely D)

I have never seen MN-1 as anything other than Safe Dem.

It shoudl probably be Likely D, but its a very closely divided district that narrowly went Obama.

[Morning in Atlas]

Minnesota:

MN-1 (Lean D)
MN-2 (Lean R)
MN-3 (Likely R)
MN-8 (Likely D)

I have never seen MN-1 as anything other than Safe Dem.

It shoudl probably be Likely D, but its a very closely divided district that narrowly went Obama.

Walz took 57.5% in 2012 and won by 5 in 2010. He's safe.

[Maxwell]

Minnesota:

MN-1 (Lean D)
MN-2 (Lean R)
MN-3 (Likely R)
MN-8 (Likely D)

I have never seen MN-1 as anything other than Safe Dem.

It shoudl probably be Likely D, but its a very closely divided district that narrowly went Obama.

Walz took 57.5% in 2012 and won by 5 in 2010. He's safe.

in 2012 he ran against Allan Quist, who is basically Michelle Bachmann before Michelle Bachmann. That being said: it needs to be a GOP-friendly year AND there needs to be a good candidate in order to knock Walz out.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

How in the hell is FL-18 Safe R!?!? Patrick Murphy is proving to be a popular, moderate Democrat with solid fundraising skills and has ultra-mega-crap opponents. It's MUCH closer to Safe D than to Safe R. Also disagree with FL-20, it's D+28 and should be without a doubt Safe D (don't know why it's at slight D right now) and FL-13, Jolly barely won with crappy turnout, should be Tossup or at most Slight R.

[JerryArkansas]

How in the hell is FL-18 Safe R!?!? Patrick Murphy is proving to be a popular, moderate Democrat with solid fundraising skills and has ultra-mega-crap opponents. It's MUCH closer to Safe D than to Safe R. Also disagree with FL-20, it's D+28 and should be without a doubt Safe D (don't know why it's at slight D right now) and FL-13, Jolly barely won with crappy turnout, should be Tossup or at most Slight R.

Crap, I don't know why I did that.  The slight D was meant for Murphy.  I really don't know how I did that.  I will fix that in the next update.  I do agree with you on FL 13, but Dems have almost no one to run for the seat, hence the rating.  A lot of these take into account the candidates running, as evident in IL-3 with the crazy homophobie as the rep nominee.

[Morning in Atlas]

How in the hell is FL-18 Safe R!?!? Patrick Murphy is proving to be a popular, moderate Democrat with solid fundraising skills and has ultra-mega-crap opponents. It's MUCH closer to Safe D than to Safe R. Also disagree with FL-20, it's D+28 and should be without a doubt Safe D (don't know why it's at slight D right now) and FL-13, Jolly barely won with crappy turnout, should be Tossup or at most Slight R.

Crap, I don't know why I did that.  The slight D was meant for Murphy.  I really don't know how I did that.  I will fix that in the next update.  I do agree with you on FL 13, but Dems have almost no one to run for the seat, hence the rating.  A lot of these take into account the candidates running, as evident in IL-3 with the crazy homophobie as the rep nominee.

*Ehrlich and Justice would be strong candidates. I'd say it's FL-13 is a toss-up at this point.
*The homophobe is running in IL-9 and there's no way that seat's flipping (or IL-3, Lipinski is a good fit for the district).

My main issue is with NH-2's rating - while you can make a case for MA-6 and even ME-2, Garcia and Lambert aren't the type of Pubs that can get elected in that district. Paulists have a chance, and a moderate, but couple the bad candidates with a strong incumbent and NH-2 is at the very least Likely D. Also, PA-6 isn't safe anymore since Gerlach is gone.

[JerryArkansas]

How in the hell is FL-18 Safe R!?!? Patrick Murphy is proving to be a popular, moderate Democrat with solid fundraising skills and has ultra-mega-crap opponents. It's MUCH closer to Safe D than to Safe R. Also disagree with FL-20, it's D+28 and should be without a doubt Safe D (don't know why it's at slight D right now) and FL-13, Jolly barely won with crappy turnout, should be Tossup or at most Slight R.

Crap, I don't know why I did that.  The slight D was meant for Murphy.  I really don't know how I did that.  I will fix that in the next update.  I do agree with you on FL 13, but Dems have almost no one to run for the seat, hence the rating.  A lot of these take into account the candidates running, as evident in IL-3 with the crazy homophobie as the rep nominee.

*Ehrlich and Justice would be strong candidates. I'd say it's FL-13 is a toss-up at this point.
*The homophobe is running in IL-9 and there's no way that seat's flipping (or IL-3, Lipinski is too strong).

My main issue is with NH-2's rating - while you can make a case for MA-6 and even ME-2, Garcia and Lambert aren't the type of Pubs that can get elected in NH-2. Paulists have a chance, and moderates definitely have a chance, but it's at the very least Likely D. Also, PA-6 isn't safe anymore since Gerlach is gone.

FL-13, I don't see either of them running however.
IL-3, Yes she is, and I will fix that for later.  I really thought she was in the third however.
NH-2 and PA-6, I really have not been looking into these races as much, as some have pointed out.  I will take your comments and update the map.

[Miles]

^

LA-06: Don't underestimate Edwards, but Slight R is too generous. Lean or Likely R.

NC-09: Safe R; Pittenger is unopposed in the general election.

[publicunofficial]

Now in picture form.

[Flake]

[ElectionsGuy]

^^

What sight has that map?

[Flake]

^^

What sight has that map?

I just copied and pasted JerryArkansas's map to paint.

[publicunofficial]

Update:

A few minor tweaks. Some are races that I didn't feel comfortable with my original rating (NE-02), some are due to new developments (NY-11).






Safe D:
CA-31 (OPEN)

Likely D:
CA-26 (Brownley)
CA-36 (Ruiz)
FL-18 (Murphy)
IL-12 (Enyart)
IL-17 (Bustos)
NH-02 (Kuster)
NV-04 (Horsford)
NY-18 (Maloney)

Lean D:
AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick)
AZ-09 (Sinema)
CA-07 (Bera)
CA-52 (Peters)
GA-12 (Barrow)
IL-10 (Schneider)
MA-06 (Tierney)
ME-02 (OPEN)
NH-01 (Shea-Porter)
NY-01 (Bishop)
NY-11 (Grimm)
TX-23 (Gallego)

Toss-Up
AZ-02 (Barber)
CO-06 (Coffman)
FL-02 (Southerland)
FL-26 (Garcia)
IA-03 (OPEN)
IL-13 (OPEN)
NJ-03 (OPEN)
NY-21 (OPEN)
WV-03 (Rahall)

Lean R:
AR-02 (OPEN)
CA-21 (Valadao)
FL-13 (Jolly)
MI-01 (Benishek)
MI-08 (OPEN)
MI-12 (Walberg)
MT-AL (OPEN)
NY-19 (Gibson)
NY-23 (Reed)
PA-06 (OPEN)
VA-10 (OPEN)
WV-02 (OPEN)

Likely R:
AR-01 (Crawford)
AR-04 (OPEN)
CA-10 (Denham)
CA-25 (OPEN)
CO-03 (Tipton)
IA-04 (King)
KY-06 (Barr)
LA-06 (OPEN)
MI-04 (Camp)
MI-11 (Bentivolio)
NC-02 (Ellmers)
NE-02 (Terry)
NM-02 (Peace)
NV-03 (Heck)
OH-14 (Joyce)
VA-02 (Rigell)
WI-06 (OPEN)

Safe R:
NC-07 (OPEN)
UT-04 (OPEN)

[Flake]

[Indy Texas]

TX-23 (Gallego)

Unless Quico Canseco wins the GOP runoff and is the nominee, I think this seat will be less competitive.

Will Hurd as the nominee isn't going to help the GOP in what I think is geographically the largest congressional district in the country apart from at-large seats. He lacks the Hispanic Surname Effect and I doubt the ornery Yosemite Sam Republicans in that part of Texas want to vote for a black ex-federal employee who is also a "confirmed bachelor."

[publicunofficial]

TX-23 (Gallego)

Unless Quico Canseco wins the GOP runoff and is the nominee, I think this seat will be less competitive.

Will Hurd as the nominee isn't going to help the GOP in what I think is geographically the largest congressional district in the country apart from at-large seats. He lacks the Hispanic Surname Effect and I doubt the ornery Yosemite Sam Republicans in that part of Texas want to vote for a black ex-federal employee who is also a "confirmed bachelor."

I'm tempted to move TX-23 to Likely D every time I redo these rankings, but I keep it at Lean D mostly because of Pure PVI + midterm turnout. Also, I don't think Quico Cancesco is any better than Hurd.