Republicans fear Midterm losses-In the House

[Smash255]

Unfortunley my district NY-03 will stay Republican (only LI district left thats on the dark side) until Peter King retires, unless Tom Suozzi Nassau County Executive decides to go after King (then King is probably done) but Suozzi is running for re-election (will probably win in a landslide like he did in 01 if not by more) so I doubt he will run anytime soon

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Rochester is trending Dem pretty quickly, the DFL gained one of its two House seats last election and is likely to hold Kiscaden's seat since she'll almost certainly run as a DFLer next election. The rural southeast isn't anywhere near as socially conservative as western rural Minnesota (places like Redwood, Otter Tail and Roseau), although the southwest part of that district has some very socially conservative parts (I could actually name towns and how they seem perfectly since I drive through the area a bunch on my way to Sioux Falls and back) they aren't too populated and the area is losing population.

If the GOP loses Rochester (which is very likely in the next 10 years), they lose the district. Rochester as it is now could even be offset if Rice county is added back to the district, hopefully we'll control the next redistricting.

[Jake]

25 vunerable seats doesn't mean 25 vunerable incumbents... a lot of old GOP Congressmen in potentially marginal districts are giving serious thought to retiring.

Same things for the Democrats though.  In PA alone, Kanjorski and Murtha are giving serious thought to retiring.

[A18]

Let me just say that although I don't take this threat seriously (it's not my job to), the last two years of a two term presidency are generally known as the 'lame duck' period during which nothing significant is accomplished, and all eyes are on each party's presidential nomination.

Also, this historic trend about a president's party losing seats in midterm elections is useless. Doubtful it has any significant impact on anyone's vote.

[TeePee4Prez]

25 vunerable seats doesn't mean 25 vunerable incumbents... a lot of old GOP Congressmen in potentially marginal districts are giving serious thought to retiring.

Same things for the Democrats though.  In PA alone, Kanjorski and Murtha are giving serious thought to retiring.

Other than Holden, you guys are maxed out in PA. 

[Jake]

25 vunerable seats doesn't mean 25 vunerable incumbents... a lot of old GOP Congressmen in potentially marginal districts are giving serious thought to retiring.

Same things for the Democrats though.  In PA alone, Kanjorski and Murtha are giving serious thought to retiring.

Other than Holden, you guys are maxed out in PA. 

If Kanjorski retires, we have an excellent chance to take down whatever state rep the Democrats put up.  Mayor Barletta, who ran in 2002, lost by 18 points, and could easily get 50% against someone like John Yudichak or Kevin Blaum.

[Keystone Phil]

What district are you in dazzleman?

Christopher Shays, the most endangered Republican incumbent.

I don't know about that. Gerlach had the toughest challenge for an incumbent this past year and his challenger will be back. He better get a better campaign team in 2006/a good amount of money or he might be gone after 2006.

Not only Gerlach, but those two guys in your signature you better say BYE BYE!!!!!

Fitz isn't going anywhere. Get it through your head.

Oh wait...that's right. Darn. You guys have that magical candidate in PA 8 that will knock Fitzpatrick off. Hahaha...

[Keystone Phil]

25 vunerable seats doesn't mean 25 vunerable incumbents... a lot of old GOP Congressmen in potentially marginal districts are giving serious thought to retiring.

Same things for the Democrats though.  In PA alone, Kanjorski and Murtha are giving serious thought to retiring.

Other than Holden, you guys are maxed out in PA. 

And you guys only have PA 6.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

25 vunerable seats doesn't mean 25 vunerable incumbents... a lot of old GOP Congressmen in potentially marginal districts are giving serious thought to retiring.

Same things for the Democrats though.  In PA alone, Kanjorski and Murtha are giving serious thought to retiring.

Other than Holden, you guys are maxed out in PA. 

If Kanjorski retires, we have an excellent chance to take down whatever state rep the Democrats put up.  Mayor Barletta, who ran in 2002, lost by 18 points, and could easily get 50% against someone like John Yudichak or Kevin Blaum.

Losing by 18 point is not a very strong showing.

[Keystone Phil]

25 vunerable seats doesn't mean 25 vunerable incumbents... a lot of old GOP Congressmen in potentially marginal districts are giving serious thought to retiring.

Same things for the Democrats though.  In PA alone, Kanjorski and Murtha are giving serious thought to retiring.

Other than Holden, you guys are maxed out in PA. 

If Kanjorski retires, we have an excellent chance to take down whatever state rep the Democrats put up.  Mayor Barletta, who ran in 2002, lost by 18 points, and could easily get 50% against someone like John Yudichak or Kevin Blaum.

Losing by 18 point is not a very strong showing.

Against someone like Kanjorski, that's pretty good.

[Jake]

25 vunerable seats doesn't mean 25 vunerable incumbents... a lot of old GOP Congressmen in potentially marginal districts are giving serious thought to retiring.

Same things for the Democrats though.  In PA alone, Kanjorski and Murtha are giving serious thought to retiring.

Other than Holden, you guys are maxed out in PA. 

If Kanjorski retires, we have an excellent chance to take down whatever state rep the Democrats put up.  Mayor Barletta, who ran in 2002, lost by 18 points, and could easily get 50% against someone like John Yudichak or Kevin Blaum.

Losing by 18 point is not a very strong showing.

Further proving you don't know much about PA politics.  Kanjorski is the safest Democratic rep outside of Philadelphia, and is wildly popular in Scranton and Wilkes-Barre.  Losing by 18 to Kanjorski with the district that he's in is quite an accomplishment.

[TeePee4Prez]

Scranton-Wilkes Barre-Hazleton are solid Dem.  PA 11 also encompasses the ever trending Demcoratic Monroe County.  I know that region well enough.  It will stay Dem unless the Dem is really weak and the Rep is really strong.

[Dave from Michigan]

I don't see any seats switching in michigan even if Joe Knollenberg-R  MI-9 retires it will most likely go republican.

[J. J.]

If Murtha goes, PA-12 could very easily go Republican.

[Jake]

Scranton-Wilkes Barre-Hazleton are solid Dem.  PA 11 also encompasses the ever trending Demcoratic Monroe County.  I know that region well enough.  It will stay Dem unless the Dem is really weak and the Rep is really strong.

It is a strong Democratic area, but the Democrats will lose in a Yudichak/Barletta race due to name recognition.  If the Democrats run Mayor Doherty or State Rep Kevin Blaum, they should be able to pull it out.

[TeePee4Prez]

If Murtha goes, PA-12 could very easily go Republican.

It was actually gerrymandered to strengthen other GOP areas.

[zorkpolitics]

Historically losing 25 seats is not uncommon:
Democrats lost 54 in 1994
Republicans lost 26 in 1982
Democrats lost 34 in 1980
Republicans lost 48 in 1974
Democrats lost 47 in 1966
Republicans lost 36 in 1964

Although most people think it is nearly impossible for the Republicans to lose 25 seats, there are vulnerable incumbents and potential open seats the Dmeocrats coudl target.

In 2004 Republicans won 27 seats with less than 56% of the vote, and these would be the most endangered incumbents:
IN-09     Mike Sodrel    49.50%
NY-29   Randy Kuhl    50.40%
PA-06   Jim Gerlach    51.00%
CO-04   Marilyn Musgrave    51.10%
WA-08   Dave Reichert    51.50%
CT-04   Chris Shays    52.40%
IN-08   John Hostettler    53.40%
CA-26   David Drier    53.70%
MN-06   Mark Kennedy    54.00%
NE-01   Jeff Fortenberry    54.00%
CT-02   Rob Simmons    54.20%
IN-02   Chris Chocola    54.20%
TX-32   Pete Sessions    54.30%
KY-04   Geoff Davis    54.40%
NV-03   Jon Porter    54.50%
CO-07   Bob Beauprez    54.70%
NM-01   Heather Wilson    54.70%
NC-11   Charles Taylor    54.90%
LA-05   Charles Boustany    55.00%
VA-02   Thelma Drake    55.10%
IA-01   Jim Nussle    55.20%
TX-22   Tom DeLay    55.20%
FL-13   Katherine Harris    55.30%
PA-08   Mike Fitzpatrick    55.30%
WY-AL   Barbara Cubin    55.30%
NC-08   Robin Hayes    55.50%
TX-02   Ted Poe                     55.50%

In addition, DC Political Report lists 49 Republicans who might retire and leave an open seat:
http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Retire06.htm

If in 2006 we have $4 gas, the dollar collapses, inflation returns, the economy goes in ressesion and we still have 150,000 troops in Iraq, picking up 25 seats would be possible for the Democrats.

[12th Doctor]

25 vunerable seats doesn't mean 25 vunerable incumbents... a lot of old GOP Congressmen in potentially marginal districts are giving serious thought to retiring.

Same things for the Democrats though.  In PA alone, Kanjorski and Murtha are giving serious thought to retiring.

If Murtha retires, I give that district a 70% chance of going GOP.

[muon2]

Unless there is an unusual external event, I would bet with history that the GOP gives up some seats in the House. However, I agree with those who note that the current CDs greatly reduce the number of competitive seats. Most pundits put this decade as one with the lowest fraction of truly competitive seats.

Even with a Dem off-year surge, some seats will be hard for the Dems to hold. For instance, IL-8 will be a lean GOP if any credible candidate is nominated. Its loss in 2004 was circumstantial, and those circumstances no longer exist.

[Keystone Phil]

25 vunerable seats doesn't mean 25 vunerable incumbents... a lot of old GOP Congressmen in potentially marginal districts are giving serious thought to retiring.

Same things for the Democrats though.  In PA alone, Kanjorski and Murtha are giving serious thought to retiring.

If Murtha retires, I give that district a 70% chance of going GOP.

I think Murtha will retire in either 2006 or 2008. Any big names out there for both sides?

[nclib]

25 vunerable seats doesn't mean 25 vunerable incumbents... a lot of old GOP Congressmen in potentially marginal districts are giving serious thought to retiring.

Same things for the Democrats though.  In PA alone, Kanjorski and Murtha are giving serious thought to retiring.

If Murtha retires, I give that district a 70% chance of going GOP.

Murtha's district (under the new boundaries) went for Gore.

[Keystone Phil]

25 vunerable seats doesn't mean 25 vunerable incumbents... a lot of old GOP Congressmen in potentially marginal districts are giving serious thought to retiring.

Same things for the Democrats though.  In PA alone, Kanjorski and Murtha are giving serious thought to retiring.

If Murtha retires, I give that district a 70% chance of going GOP.

Murtha's district (under the new boundaries) went for Gore.

So that means it can't go Republican? I can't stand when you and others put up that argument.

[nclib]

I didn't say it can't go Republican, just that Republicans wouldn't be favored by 70%.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not to mention it was basically gerrymandered to increase GOP strength in neighboring districts.

[Keystone Phil]

Not to mention it was basically gerrymandered to increase GOP strength in neighboring districts.

And PA 13 and PA 6 were supposed to be good Republican districts. Gerrymandering actions don't necessarily end the way people intend.