Republicans fear Midterm losses-In the House

[Jake]

http://www.suntimes.com/output/novak/cst-edt-novak201.html

Republicans fear midterm losses

March 20, 2005

BY ROBERT NOVAK SUN-TIMES COLUMNIST Advertisement

Analysts at the Republican National Committee have sent this warning to the House of Representatives: The party is in danger of losing 25 seats in the 2006 election and, therefore, of losing control of the House for the first time since the 1994 election.

Although some Republicans on Capitol Hill believe the RNC is just trying to frighten them, concern about keeping the present 232-202 edge pervades GOP ranks. The second midterm election of an eight-year presidency often produces heavy congressional losses for the party in power.

A footnote: Rep. Christopher Shays, re-elected from his Connecticut district last year with 52 percent, is considered by colleagues as the most vulnerable Republican incumbent. Other especially shaky GOP House members include Jim Gerlach of Pennsylvania and Rob Simmons of Connecticut.


So, opinions on this. Are 25 GOP reps vulnerable in 2006. What about if social security reform blows up the Bush's face.  Could the GOP lose the House?

[dazzleman]

Midterm elections during a president's second term are usually the worst for the president's party, so there is good reason for concern.

Bush bucked the historical trend in the last midterm election, winning seats for the incumbent party in the White House for only the second time since 1934.

Will he buck it this time?  Probably not.  The question is how bad the losses will be.

Christopher Shays is very vulnerable despite redistricting that added more Republican areas to his district.  I read yesterday that he joined in co-sponsoring a measure to reintroduce the Equal Rights Amendment (gag).  It's very sad what my congressional district is coming to.  I don't know what has gone wrong with the people here.

[Jake]

What district are you in dazzleman?

[Moooooo]

Is it odd to see a party gain 25 house seats in midterm election?  What is the most a party has gained in one midterm?

[Jake]

Is it odd to see a party gain 25 house seats in midterm election?  What is the most a party has gained in one midterm?

In the past, no, but districts weren't as gerrymandered in the past as they are now.  I can barely come up with 10 GOP reps that are in trouble.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't think we will lose the House but we do have some vulnerable incumbents out there. As the article above says (that I read on grassrootspa.com, Congressman Jim Gerlach can have some real problems coming his way in 2006. I think he'll hang in there but let's look at his challenger this past election. I thought Gerlach would beat her by about 10 points or so. Election night arrives, I'm watching TV and I see the following:

Gerlach - 52%
Murphy - 48%

I thought I was seeing things. I really couldn't believe it. In the end, it was Gerlach 51% - Murphy 49%. We're going to need some money to keep him in there.

[dazzleman]

What district are you in dazzleman?

I'm in the Connecticut fourth district, currently represented by Christopher Shays, the most endangered Republican incumbent.

The district has been in Republican hands since 1966 and I'd like it to stay that way.

Shays was always very comfortably re-elected until 2004, when he faced a strong challenge from Diane Farrell, the First Selectman (a New England term for highest elected official; basically a weak mayor) of Westport, one of the most liberal towns in the district.

She's the typical whiny liberal that is so greatly loved around here, though her executive position as First Selectman means she must balance a budget and try to keep taxes low, because people are here are socially liberal but fairly fiscally conservative.  This is one of the wealthiest congressional districts in the country.

Sad to say, I think it's only a matter of time before this district flips to the Democrats.  That seems to be the trend in mature affluent suburbs in the northeast and west coast areas.  I hate to see it happen, but I only have one vote, so there's not that much I can do about it.

[nini2287]

The early returns also showed Hoeffel beating Specter by 20 points.

[Keystone Phil]

The early returns also showed Hoeffel beating Specter by 20 points.

Yeah that was a laugh. I went back and watched the Election coverage on CN8, and they kept saying "Wow...this could be the upset that no one expected." All I could do was shake my head. Even that night when I saw returns at the party I was at I knew it was all the Philly numbers coming in. Remember when Kerry had about 60% in PA for awhile?

[WalterMitty]

the people should vote them out if they arent going to do anything productive.

instead of working on privatizing social security, they are holding hearings on steroids in baseball and convening special sessions over a feeding tube.

[dazzleman]

Is it odd to see a party gain 25 house seats in midterm election?  What is the most a party has gained in one midterm?

It's not strange at all, though 25 seats is a pretty big number.

Off the top of my head, I can say the Reps. gained about 51 seats in the 1994 election.  In 1982, the Demcrats gained 26 seats, and that was considered about average at the time.

The gerrymandering issue has probably made it harder for there to be large numbers of gains or losses.  Racial gerrymandering in particular has moved the countries further apart, as there are fewer truly multi-racial districts where the seat is competitive, and the incumbent must craft a position that bridges the divide.  Now we get the fiery black rhetoric in black districts, and strong conservatives in the white districts.  And there is little chance that these types of districts will ever flip to the other party.

[Keystone Phil]

What district are you in dazzleman?

Christopher Shays, the most endangered Republican incumbent.

I don't know about that. Gerlach had the toughest challenge for an incumbent this past year and his challenger will be back. He better get a better campaign team in 2006/a good amount of money or he might be gone after 2006.

[Jake]

The early returns also showed Hoeffel beating Specter by 20 points.

Yeah that was a laugh. I went back and watched the Election coverage on CN8, and they kept saying "Wow...this could be the upset that no one expected." All I could do was shake my head. Even that night when I saw returns at the party I was at I knew it was all the Philly numbers coming in. Remember when Kerry had about 60% in PA for awhile?

Kerry had 73% when the first returns came in.  I remember Brit Hume commenting on how the exit polls that showed PA 60-40 Kerry were turning out correct for once that night

[nini2287]

What district are you in dazzleman?

Christopher Shays, the most endangered Republican incumbent.

I don't know about that. Gerlach had the toughest challenge for an incumbent this past year and his challenger will be back. He better get a better campaign team in 2006/a good amount of money or he might be gone after 2006.

Does state Sen. Connie Williams live in the 6th or 13th district?  I think she would have a better chance of beating Gerlach than Lois Murphy.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

25 vunerable seats doesn't mean 25 vunerable incumbents... a lot of old GOP Congressmen in potentially marginal districts are giving serious thought to retiring.

[Keystone Phil]

What district are you in dazzleman?

Christopher Shays, the most endangered Republican incumbent.

I don't know about that. Gerlach had the toughest challenge for an incumbent this past year and his challenger will be back. He better get a better campaign team in 2006/a good amount of money or he might be gone after 2006.

Does state Sen. Connie Williams live in the 6th or 13th district?  I think she would have a better chance of beating Gerlach than Lois Murphy.

I don't think so. If she did and ran, though, she'd probably win.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What district are you in dazzleman?

Christopher Shays, the most endangered Republican incumbent.

I don't know about that. Gerlach had the toughest challenge for an incumbent this past year and his challenger will be back. He better get a better campaign team in 2006/a good amount of money or he might be gone after 2006.

I think he means in CT.

25 vunerable seats doesn't mean 25 vunerable incumbents... a lot of old GOP Congressmen in potentially marginal districts are giving serious thought to retiring.

I'm betting we get Nussle's seat in Iowa even if he ends up as governor. Nussle is way too right wing for that district.

We can also get MN-1, my district, if Gutknecht runs for Senate, although that's unlikely because the Republicans are trying to talk him out of it to clear the way for Kennedy. Very stupid since Kennedy is obviously a far weaker candidate. Last election:

Gutknecht - breaks 60% in a swing district
Kennedy - only won by 6 points in a comfortably Republican district

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

We can also get MN-1, my district, if Gutknecht runs for Senate, although that's unlikely because the Republicans are trying to talk him out of it to clear the way for Kennedy. Very stupid since Kennedy is obviously a far weaker candidate.

Actually, given that I almost no chance that the GOP will lose control of the Senate in 2006, (and if it they do it will be be under conditions that guarentee that they lose the House anyway) if guarenteeing the MN-1 seat for the GOP requires Gutknecht to stay there it makes a lot of sense for the GOP to discourage him from trying to advance to the Senate in 2006.

[12th Doctor]

I think we might lose a few seats, but that is only because we will be putting most of our money into the MN and PA senate races.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm betting we get Nussle's seat in Iowa even if he ends up as governor. Nussle is way too right wing for that district.

Nussle wins that district because he wins Dubuque. Not a lot of Republicans can do that.

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True, although if MN-1 became open it'd be interesting to see what Penny does.
Another district to watch is KY-5; I'm not sure whether he'll retire in 2006 or wait 'til 2008, but either way once that district (rock solid for Rogers) opens up all hell breaks loose.

[TeePee4Prez]

What district are you in dazzleman?

Christopher Shays, the most endangered Republican incumbent.

I don't know about that. Gerlach had the toughest challenge for an incumbent this past year and his challenger will be back. He better get a better campaign team in 2006/a good amount of money or he might be gone after 2006.

Not only Gerlach, but those two guys in your signature you better say BYE BYE!!!!!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Santorum is vunerable (everyone knows that, especially him) but unless Fitzpatrick's voting record is waaaaaay outta step with he's district he should be safe enough.

[No more McShame]

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True, although if MN-1 became open it'd be interesting to see what Penny does.
Another district to watch is KY-5; I'm not sure whether he'll retire in 2006 or wait 'til 2008, but either way once that district (rock solid for Rogers) opens up all hell breaks loose.

MN-1 is pretty conservative.  It would take a Democrat like Penny to win it.  If Penny decides he would like to return to congress he wins in a cake walk even over Gutnecht (who I'm not a big fan of).  Penny is revered there.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's not really that conservative, after all it's got Austin, Albert Lea and Mankato in it. Bush only won it by about 3 points last year and Dayton won it in 2000.

[No more McShame]

It's not really that conservative, after all it's got Austin, Albert Lea and Mankato in it. Bush only won it by about 3 points last year and Dayton won it in 2000.

True, but it's also got Rochester and points SE of there which is probably the most socially conservative part of Minnesota.