FRIDAY RASMUSSEN - Bush has good day, Kerry still leads by 2.1%

[The Vorlon]

Moved to new thread...

[Gustaf]

Vorlon, I've been relying on you to produce polls during my absence...

Is Kerry back on top then?

[© tweed]

Where do you get those numbers?!?!?!?!?!

[Gustaf]

Where do you get those numbers?!?!?!?!?!

Maybe he makes them up!

[Gustaf]

Vorlon, I've been relying on you to produce polls during my absence...

Is Kerry back on top then?

Tried Posting a few polls but "California Dreaming" got a little cranky at me..

Really hard to say...

Events that are purely emotional, such as the atrocities in Iraq, cannot really be subjected to "spin" - people react at a gut level that is basically imune to the regular tools of the political trade.

The pot has been stirred, some voters will legitimately change sides over the Iraq matter.

I think Bush takes a legitimate, lasting 3-5 point hit over this.

There is no idealogical majority opposed to the war in Iraq, but we are teetering on the edge of an operational majority in opposition.

If that happens, Bush is in, to borrow his dad's phrase.. "In deep doo-doo"

I had Bush marginally ahead, maybe 2 points, I suspect Kerry is now +2.

I'd really like to see a poll from a really top tier firm right now.  

Hey all you Democrats, get James Carville's firm (Democracy Corps/Quinlin Associates) on the line and order me up a poll ok...?

And all you Republicans, Get Teeter/Hard on the line and get them phone banks humming..

OK, thanks. And am I correct in noting that 'Vorlon' has become 'The Vorlon'? If so, why?

[dunn]

nice

[© tweed]

Where do you get those numbers?!?!?!?!?!

Very easy to calculate actually..

if you "right click" on the rasmussen page and select "view source" you can get, to a tenth of a %, the exact 3 day tracking numbers from the HTML code..

Rasmussen also publishes his 7 day tracks down to a tenth of a percent.

Example:

Day1        
Day2
Day3
Day4
Day5
Day6
Day7   3day, 3day, 7day, 7day
Day8
Day9
Day10
Day11
Day12
Day13
Day14  3day, 3day, 7day, 7day

Lets say I have the 7 day total for Days 7 and 14

for simplicity say the support for Days 8 to 14 was 45%, I thus know the total of days 8 to 14 was 7 x 45 = 315

I also have the 3 day tracks for day 14 and day 11 so you subtract 3 times the combined total of day 14 and day 11 from "315" and like magic I have the exact daily total for Day 8..
For example if the support on Day 14 was 44 and the support on day 11 was 45 we have

(315 - (3x45) - (3x44) = 48)

We know the single day track on Day 8 must have been 48....

I repeat to get the exact 1 day score for day 7, I now have two days in a row, and from there is is simple enough to calculate all the other days based upon the daily 3 day rolls..

If the 3 day score is 45, and support the two days before was 44 and 45, the 3rd day score musy have been 46...

There is a very minor error in that the 7 day scores are rounded to .1%, (ie 45.2 could be 45.15, or 45.25) so my 7 day total could be out by as much as a combined .35%, so my one day scores may be .35% higher or lower than I post, but hey .35% is close enough..

Hope that helps..

Yeah...emm, why don't you keep calculating it?

[Gustaf]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

"The Vorlon" is a character from a science fiction TV series called "Babylon 5" the series ended 3 years ago, but was quite good...

The character in the series was always called "The Vorlon" so I figured I's use the "full" name.

OK. Just wondering.

[Nation]

I knew I had heard "vorlon" somewhere else before. . .

[angus]

Ever had a roommate of hamitosemitic stock.  I've had two.  One who's native language was arabic and one who's native language was Farsi.  They both called everybody "the" something.  Like, "I was talking to the gustaf yesterday and he said he was going to the Boston after he finished his vacation in the Mexico."  Years later, when I took arabic, I understood why.  In semitic languages (yes I know Farsi is not one) the definite article is widely used in places where it would seem strange in Indo-European languages.  So, if your Arabic is a bit rusty:  when in doubt, put the AL in there before every word.  You'll be right more than you'll be wrong.  But remember the elision!  As in,  

As-salaam aleikum ya'l Vorlon.  

[Gustaf]

Ever had a roommate of hamitosemitic stock.  I've had two.  One who's native language was arabic and one who's native language was Farsi.  They both called everybody "the" something.  Like, "I was talking to the gustaf yesterday and he said he was going to the Boston after he finished his vacation in the Mexico."  Years later, when I took arabic, I understood why.  In semitic languages (yes I know Farsi is not one) the definite article is widely used in places where it would seem strange in Indo-European languages.  So, if your Arabic is a bit rusty:  when in doubt, put the AL in there before every word.  You'll be right more than you'll be wrong.  But remember the elision!  As in,  

As-salaam aleikum ya'l Vorlon.  

'When in doubt, send in the marines!'

Sorry, just a wild assocaition.

Interesting language lecture there Angus.

[angus]

In case any one is curious, Al Qaeda means The Base.

[Gustaf]

In case any one is curious, Al Qaeda means The Base.

You should start a thread on Arabic in the perosnal section.

[classical liberal]

In traditional Pharsi there are no articles.

[angus]

In traditional Pharsi there are no articles.

why, I did not know that.  Still, my Tehrani roomie always did that.  Maybe it was the influence of arabic.  He could certainly read arabic very well, as I recall.  My parents had an Iranian exchange student living with us for two years when I was very young, but I cannot for the life of me remember any of the farsi she taught me.  I just looked at some farsi text and did notice the absence of the combination of alif laam which you'd see in front of every other word in Arabic.  I note the two scripts are remarkably similar too (with one or two oddball things that arabic doesn't have)  

Well, Happy (belated) Persian new year to you, if that is appropriate.  And I'll leave off here lest Gustaf give me an even less subtle hint about the relevance of my post.

[classical liberal]

I'm not Persian.

Pharsi picked up a lot of Arabic when Persia joined the Arabian empire and converted to Islam.  The old Avestan script was pretty much abandoned although modern Pharsi script has like 6 extra letters over Arabic.

[MN-Troy]

Events that are purely emotional, such as the atrocities in Iraq, cannot really be subjected to "spin" - people react at a gut level that is basically imune to the regular tools of the political trade.

While it's true that such events are purely emotional and righfully so, the President has the ability to change those emotions by "dropping the hammer on the bad guys". Americans love it when we get the bad guys.

[opebo]

In case any one is curious, Al Qaeda means The Base.

All your Base are belong to us!

[angus]

I'm so glad the we are past our sad little experiments in political correctness, although even in the early 90s I'd have been laughing at that sort of thing.  

Having said that, I never quite know when you're joking and when you're not.  That can be consternating, and may have been the motivaion of the politically correct in the first place.

[angus]

I would also add that it was uncanny the way you conveyed that accent in this text-only forum.  very clever  

[opebo]

I would also add that it was uncanny the way you conveyed that accent in this text-only forum.  very clever  

http://www.planettribes.com/allyourbase/AYB2.swf

[angus]

you have no chance to survive make your time

[Gustaf]

Ever had a roommate of hamitosemitic stock.  I've had two.  One who's native language was arabic and one who's native language was Farsi.  They both called everybody "the" something.  Like, "I was talking to the gustaf yesterday and he said he was going to the Boston after he finished his vacation in the Mexico."  Years later, when I took arabic, I understood why.  In semitic languages (yes I know Farsi is not one) the definite article is widely used in places where it would seem strange in Indo-European languages.  So, if your Arabic is a bit rusty:  when in doubt, put the AL in there before every word.  You'll be right more than you'll be wrong.  But remember the elision!  As in,  

As-salaam aleikum ya'l Vorlon.  

'When in doubt, send in the marines!'

Sorry, just a wild assocaition.

Interesting language lecture there Angus.

'cause might makes right, untill the've seen the light...

they've got to be protected... all their rights respected...

till somebody we like can be elected....

The members of the core...

all hate the thought of war....

We'd rather kill them off by peaceful means....

You recognized it.

We only want the world to know...

That we support the status quo...

They really love us everywhere we go...

So, when in doubt....

SEND IN THE MARINES!

[muon2]

Senator Kerry Maintained a 2.1% lead over President Bush on the three day rolling Rasmussen track, a decline from the 3.2% lead the previous night.

Bush won the Thursday Night's sample

This may have been due to a fairly positive performance by Dr. Rice at the 9/11 hearing, or it could simply just be statistical noise...  Lets wait a few days to see....

The Data on a daily basis remains very choppy - the bouncing around is well above the "statistical noise" we would expect, so there is indeed real volatiity in the electorate right now.

The April 6th sample, which Kerry won by 12.5% drops tonight, so there will likely be a fairly large change in Tomorrows results.

I would be VERY careful about drawing any conclusions about last nights sample, or indeed this upcoming weekend's Rasmussen samples - Easter weekend is a brutally bad time to try and poll anything.

NOTE - The numbers I am posting today are a bit different than I posted yesterday.  I had a small error in my spreadsheet

These numbers are correct...

             I Day            3 day          7 day  
             Bush   Kerry   Bush   Kerry  Bush   Kerry
   
1-Apr   48.8   48.2   46.5   43.8   45.2   45.7
2-Apr   48.4   43.7   46.2   44.8   45.9   45.0
3-Apr   40.2   45.8   45.8   45.9   44.6   45.5
4-Apr   44.9   51.5   44.5   47.0   45.2   46.0
5-Apr   45.7   42.8   43.6   46.7   45.5   45.0
6-Apr   36.6   49.1   42.4   47.8   43.7   46.2
7-Apr   47.3   47.3   43.2   46.4   44.6   46.9
8-Apr   49.0   42.8   44.3   46.4   44.6   46.1

As you note, the 3-day percent for Bush should jump substantially as the 36.6% result is replaced. If both polled their current 7-day average tonight, the new three-day average would be Bush 47.0, Kerry 45.4.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It would be nice to have a seperate forum just for posting polls.  They are very interesting to read, but there are so many of them, it distracts from the substantive conversation.