Big shifts in party affiliations 2008-2013

[eric82oslo]

The big stories are these. Having become a lot more Republican: North Dakota, Wyoming, Kansas, Oklahoma and Montana. Having become more Democratic, that is relatively speaking: California, New York, New Mexico and New Jersey. That basically means that none of these states will be anywhere near battleground status come 2016.

Some states (we only have the numbers for 24 states + D.C. right now) shifts over this 6 year period.

Very Democratic states:

Washington D.C.: -17.4
Vermont: -13.7
Rhode Island: -13.5
Massachusetts: -13
Connecticut: -10.3
Hawaii: -9.8
Illinois: -7.2
Maryland: -6.3
Delaware: -6.2
New Jersey: -3.1
New Mexico: -2.8
New York: -2
California: -1.4

Very Republican states:

North Dakota: +25.7 (!)
Wyoming: +19.9
Kansas: +19
Oklahoma: +18.7
Montana: +16.9
Alabama: +10.2
South Carolina: +10.1
Alaska: +9.4
Nebraska: +9.4
Utah: +9.3
Idaho: +8.7

The remaining 26 states are either regarded as toss ups (within 5% partisan advantage) or only "slighly" leaning one way or the other (up to 9% partisan advantage).

The released Gallup numbers so far: http://www.gallup.com/poll/167030/not-states-lean-democratic-2013.aspx?ref=image

[IceSpear]

That North Dakota number makes Heitkamp's win even more impressive.

[hopper]

Party ID 2013-2014, Gallup:

Washington DC D+58
New York D+25
Hawaii D+24
Rhode Island D+23
Massachusetts D+21
Maryland D+20
Vermont D+19
California D+18
Illinois D+17
Delaware D+17
New Jersey D+16
Connecticut D+16
New Mexico D+11
Michigan D+9
Washington D+7
Oregon D+7
Maine D+6
Minnesota D+6
Florida D+5
Nation D+5
Pennsylvania D+3
Nevada D+3
Kentucky D+2
West Virginia D+1
Wisconsin D+1
Ohio EVEN
North Carolina R+1
Arizona R+1
Virginia R+1
Louisiana R+2
Iowa R+2
Georgia R+3
Missouri R+3
Arkansas R+4
Colorado R+4
Texas R+4
New Hampshire R+4
Indiana R+4
Mississippi R+6
Tennessee  R+7
South Carolina R+10
Alabama R+11
Oklahoma R+13
Montana R+13
Nebraska R+16
South Dakota R_17
Alaska R+20
Kansas R+21
Idaho R+24
North Dakota R+25
Utah R+32
Wyoming R+40

[hopper]

Moderate Voters:

Connecticut 41%
Rhode Island 39%
South Dakota 39$
Ohio 39%
New Jersey 39%
Michigan 39%
Hawaii 39%
Illinois 39%
Massachusetts 38%
Maryland 38%
Arizona 38%
Iowa 38%
Minnesota 38%
Virginia 38%
Maine 37%
Pennsylvania 37%
Florida 37%
California 37%
North Dakota 37%
New York 37%
Kentucky 37%
Indiana 37%
Nation 37%
Wisconsin 37%
Delaware 36%
West Virginia 36%
Louisiana 36%
Utah 36%
Georgia 36%
Nevada 36%
North Carolina 36%
New Hampshire 36%
Washington 36%
Texas 35%
Washington DC 35%
Colorado 35%
Kansas 35%
New Mexico 35%
Nebraska 35%
Alabama 35%
Wyoming 35%
Tennesee 35%
Missouri 35%
Oklahoma 34%
Vermont 34%
Arkansas 34%
South Carolina 34%
Idaho 34%
Montana 33%
Alaska 32%
Mississippi 32%

[hopper]

Trend in party ID 2009-2013:


New York D+2
California R+2
Florida R+2
New Jersey R+2
New Mexico R+2
Arizona R+3
Hawaii R+3
Texas R+3
Trend R+3
Louisiana R+4
Mississippi R+4
Nevada R+4
Alabama R+5
Alaska R+5
Connecticut R+6
Delaware R+5'
Georgia R+6
Illinois R+6
Michigan R+6
Minnesota R+6
Kentucky R+7
Maine R+7
Maryland R+7
Massachusetts R+8
Vermont R+8
Virginia R+8
Washington R+8
Washington DC R+8
Idaho R+9
Oregon R+9
Pennsylvania R+9
Rhode Island R+9
South Carolina R+9
Indiana R+10
Montana R+10
North Carolina R+10
Ohio R+10
Colorado R+11
Wisconsin R+11
Utah R+11
Iowa R+12
New Hampshire R+12
Oklahoma R+12
Tennesee R+12
Missouri R+13
Nebraska R+13
Arkansas R+14
South Dakota R+14
West Virginia R+18
Wyoming R+18
Kansas R+20
North Dakota R+26