Casey +7

[Keystone Phil]

The Democrats shouldn't get too excited about this poll.  Casey was leading the Governor's race in 2001, but once the candidates actually started running ads, Rendell pulled away .  Of course, Casey is certainly a better candidate than Ron Klink, and Santorum has become a more polarizing figure since 2000.

You view Santorum as a polarizing figure but he has some of the best approval ratings in the state and the lowest disapproval ratings. When you will guys understand that?

Whatever his approval ratings are, I think it's hard to argue that Santorum isn't now more polarizing than he was five years ago.  When he ran for reelection in 2000, Santorum was just one of six or seven generic Republican Senators who won in 1994 that the Dems were trying to knock-off.  Since then, he has become a national symbol for the anti-gay movement.  What was Santorum's disapproval rating in 2000?  And even if he is just as popular in PA now as he was then, Santorum is polarizing on a national scale, such that his race will attract a lot more money and attention than it did then.

Ok, you can throw all the money you want at the Democratic opponent but Pennsylvanians haven't cared what a few Democrats on the national level have to think about Santorum for awhile now.

[Keystone Phil]

To specify this a little more, if you look through Quinnipiac's polling history in Pennsylvania, you will see that Santorum's disapproval rating hovers around 30%, and has since his anti-gay marriage comments.  Prior to these comments, his disapproval was consistantly 20-22%.   Hence, he is clearly more polarizing now than he was when he last ran. 

Then you believed that Specter was vulnerable and more polarizing and Rendell will be vulnerable and is also polarizing?

[Keystone Phil]

note: if I was Santorum, I would hit Casey on judges. If Casey goes with Democrats in filibustering judges, pro-life judges won't be confirmed, thus negating Casey's value as a pro-lifer and keeping that vote with Santorum.
 

If I was Santorum I would hit Casey on his lack of interest in the U.S. Senate.  In reality Casey does NOT want the job.   He wants to be governor and everyone knows that.  He has already stated that he will not commit to serve a full term if elected.  That alone should make PA voters second guess voting for him.  I have a feeling alot of Democrats are going to be upset with the result of this race.  Im not holding my breath for a Casey victory, thats for sure.

I already mentioned that some time ago.  I think that the way Casey launched into this has hurt his credability.

He didn't run in '04 because, he said, he didn't want the job.  Now he turns around and runs, thus abandoning a job that he was voted and entrusted with by PA voters, including myself, and runs for a possition that he thinks will be a better stepping stone to the governorship, which everyone knows is what he really wants.

So you voted for him for treasurer too.

Don't you feel a little disappointed?

He's one of my favorite Democrats and I would have voted for him, too. However, it's pretty disappointing that he's running for an office he really has no interest in at all and decided to do this after only one month in his new job.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

To specify this a little more, if you look through Quinnipiac's polling history in Pennsylvania, you will see that Santorum's disapproval rating hovers around 30%, and has since his anti-gay marriage comments.  Prior to these comments, his disapproval was consistantly 20-22%.   Hence, he is clearly more polarizing now than he was when he last ran. 

Then you believed that Specter was vulnerable and more polarizing and Rendell will be vulnerable and is also polarizing?

Ok, this is the message I posted that you were responding to:

The Democrats shouldn't get too excited about this poll.  Casey was leading the Governor's race in 2001, but once the candidates actually started running ads, Rendell pulled away .  Of course, Casey is certainly a better candidate than Ron Klink, and Santorum has become a more polarizing figure since 2000.

Note I never said Santorum was "vulnerable".  I don't know where you are getting that from...In fact, the point of my message was that he's less vulnerable than many Dems are currently arguing.    I do think Santorum is  more vulnerable than Rendell, but that's because the Dems currently have a better challenger than the Republicans, not because of approval ratings.

I also didn't say he was "polarizing".  I said he was "more polarizing" than he was in 2000.  You replied that he wasn't polarizing b/c of his disapproval ratings, and I responded that his disapproval ratings are higher now than they were in the past.   Thus, by your definitions, not mine, Santorum v.2005 is more polarizing.  Not more polarizing than Rendell or Specter (who is polarizing in a different way), but more polarizing than Santorum v.2000.  I don't know whether a 30% disapproval makes you "polarizing" (as opposed to "not polarizing"), but it seems likely that someone with 30% disapproval is "more polarizing" than someone with 20% disapproval (as Santorum had before his gay marriage comments).

[Keystone Phil]

To specify this a little more, if you look through Quinnipiac's polling history in Pennsylvania, you will see that Santorum's disapproval rating hovers around 30%, and has since his anti-gay marriage comments.  Prior to these comments, his disapproval was consistantly 20-22%.   Hence, he is clearly more polarizing now than he was when he last ran. 

Then you believed that Specter was vulnerable and more polarizing and Rendell will be vulnerable and is also polarizing?

Ok, this is the message I posted that you were responding to:

The Democrats shouldn't get too excited about this poll.  Casey was leading the Governor's race in 2001, but once the candidates actually started running ads, Rendell pulled away .  Of course, Casey is certainly a better candidate than Ron Klink, and Santorum has become a more polarizing figure since 2000.

Note I never said Santorum was "vulnerable".  I don't know where you are getting that from...In fact, the point of my message was that he's less vulnerable than many Dems are currently arguing.    I do think Santorum is  more vulnerable than Rendell, but that's because the Dems currently have a better challenger than the Republicans, not because of approval ratings.

Well why not because of approval ratings? Swann would be a strong candidate (especially out west) and Rendell is not doing as great as many think.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Um, every PA Republican on this board understands that Casey is a good candidate. But, Casey is still at the same point he was in the last poll, and will continue to be in this position until the campaign begins for real. 

And maybe he'll win the election by the same 7 points.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

By God I hope not.

I suspect it's too late now... *looks worried*

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It's interesting, but some of the statewide results from last year are interesting as well.
PA's ticket splitting habits make for interesting maps at times

Yeah.

I voted for Casey.

Go figure...a libertarian, voting for a populist...for state treasurer.

Casey, if elected, will be marginalized, just like his father was at the convention. That move pissed of a lot of conservative democrats...and a bunch of republicans who generally liked his late father...including myself (and my family).

Thats why he should just wait for a chance to run for governor.

Casey Sr. did not support Clinton's Presidency in 1992. Therefore, there was no point in letting him speak.
Casey Jr. is a bit more socially liberal.
He will not be marginalized the way his father was.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I love the non-PA residents chiming in to tell us all about PA. 

Hey, now, he's from Virginia. He might know some about Virginia's 3rd Senator.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

To specify this a little more, if you look through Quinnipiac's polling history in Pennsylvania, you will see that Santorum's disapproval rating hovers around 30%, and has since his anti-gay marriage comments.  Prior to these comments, his disapproval was consistantly 20-22%.   Hence, he is clearly more polarizing now than he was when he last ran. 

Then you believed that Specter was vulnerable and more polarizing and Rendell will be vulnerable and is also polarizing?

Ok, this is the message I posted that you were responding to:

The Democrats shouldn't get too excited about this poll.  Casey was leading the Governor's race in 2001, but once the candidates actually started running ads, Rendell pulled away .  Of course, Casey is certainly a better candidate than Ron Klink, and Santorum has become a more polarizing figure since 2000.

Note I never said Santorum was "vulnerable".  I don't know where you are getting that from...In fact, the point of my message was that he's less vulnerable than many Dems are currently arguing.    I do think Santorum is  more vulnerable than Rendell, but that's because the Dems currently have a better challenger than the Republicans, not because of approval ratings.

Well why not because of approval ratings? Swann would be a strong candidate (especially out west) and Rendell is not doing as great as many think.

How do you know if Swann would be a good candidate?  Have you ever seen him in a debate or even a prepared policy speech? 

Even his sports background is a mixed blessing....the majority of Pennsylvanians aren't Steeler fans, and about half those Steeler fans aren't even old enough to remember when Swann was playing for them (almost thirty years ago).

More importantly, Swann doesn't do anything target the suburban Philly voters than Republicans need to win back in order to win that race.  Rendell did pretty badly in western Pennsylvania in 2002, but the southeast more than made up for it.

If the Pennsylvania GOP wants to beat Rendell in 2006, they should run Mark Schweiker.  I'm not really sure who else would get it done, although I'm not as up on PA politics as some on this board.

[Jake]

Um, every PA Republican on this board understands that Casey is a good candidate. But, Casey is still at the same point he was in the last poll, and will continue to be in this position until the campaign begins for real. 

And maybe he'll win the election by the same 7 points.

It's certainly possible.  The race hinges now really on money. Santorum is budgeting 20 million for the campaign, and hopes to raise 4.5 million through the end of this year. Casey won't have the money that Hoeffel had this year.  First, because Hoeffel had Rendell going around the state raising money for him, and second because Hoeffel got the big out of state abortion dollars that Casey won't get.

[Keystone Phil]

To specify this a little more, if you look through Quinnipiac's polling history in Pennsylvania, you will see that Santorum's disapproval rating hovers around 30%, and has since his anti-gay marriage comments.  Prior to these comments, his disapproval was consistantly 20-22%.   Hence, he is clearly more polarizing now than he was when he last ran. 

Then you believed that Specter was vulnerable and more polarizing and Rendell will be vulnerable and is also polarizing?

Ok, this is the message I posted that you were responding to:

The Democrats shouldn't get too excited about this poll.  Casey was leading the Governor's race in 2001, but once the candidates actually started running ads, Rendell pulled away .  Of course, Casey is certainly a better candidate than Ron Klink, and Santorum has become a more polarizing figure since 2000.

Note I never said Santorum was "vulnerable".  I don't know where you are getting that from...In fact, the point of my message was that he's less vulnerable than many Dems are currently arguing.    I do think Santorum is  more vulnerable than Rendell, but that's because the Dems currently have a better challenger than the Republicans, not because of approval ratings.

Well why not because of approval ratings? Swann would be a strong candidate (especially out west) and Rendell is not doing as great as many think.

How do you know if Swann would be a good candidate?  Have you ever seen him in a debate or even a prepared policy speech? 

Even his sports background is a mixed blessing....the majority of Pennsylvanians aren't Steeler fans, and about half those Steeler fans aren't even old enough to remember when Swann was playing for them (almost thirty years ago).

More importantly, Swann doesn't do anything target the suburban Philly voters than Republicans need to win back in order to win that race.  Rendell did pretty badly in western Pennsylvania in 2002, but the southeast more than made up for it.

If the Pennsylvania GOP wants to beat Rendell in 2006, they should run Mark Schweiker.  I'm not really sure who else would get it done, although I'm not as up on PA politics as some on this board.

The fact that Swann can wrap up the west is good enough for me. He's a legend out there.

Rendell did not do badly in the west. He didn't win it like he won SE PA but it was still a comfortable win in most areas. Swann eliminates that. The west won't just go along with 2002's Mr. Popular in 2006.

As for Schweiker, I wouldn't mind him as the GOP nominee at all. If he jumped into the race, I'd probably go with him over Swann. He could make it very interesting especially since he is from this area (He's from out in Bucks county and would likely take that heavy Rendell county with him if he ran.)

[Keystone Phil]

Um, every PA Republican on this board understands that Casey is a good candidate. But, Casey is still at the same point he was in the last poll, and will continue to be in this position until the campaign begins for real. 

And maybe he'll win the election by the same 7 points.

and second because Hoeffel got the big out of state abortion dollars that Casey won't get.

I have a feeling they aren't done going after Chris Heinz. The Pro Choice groups made a big fuss about Casey and then it quited down all of the sudden. Maybe something's going on...or atleast that's what I'm hoping for...

[Jake]

I have a feeling they aren't done going after Chris Heinz. The Pro Choice groups made a big fuss about Casey and then it quited down all of the sudden. Maybe something's going on...or atleast that's what I'm hoping for...

That happens, Casey gets pissed and drops out.  PA Dems are left with Hoeffel Jr. from the west and end up losing badly.

[Keystone Phil]

I have a feeling they aren't done going after Chris Heinz. The Pro Choice groups made a big fuss about Casey and then it quited down all of the sudden. Maybe something's going on...or atleast that's what I'm hoping for...

That happens, Casey gets pissed and drops out.  PA Dems are left with Hoeffel Jr. from the west and end up losing badly.

Casey won't drop out. He won't do that to the national leaders. If Heinz runs, though, I can see a Heinz win. The General election would be a good one for Santorum. No 10 point but a pretty comfortable one.

[Jake]

I have a feeling they aren't done going after Chris Heinz. The Pro Choice groups made a big fuss about Casey and then it quited down all of the sudden. Maybe something's going on...or atleast that's what I'm hoping for...

That happens, Casey gets pissed and drops out.  PA Dems are left with Hoeffel Jr. from the west and end up losing badly.

Casey won't drop out. He won't do that to the national leaders. If Heinz runs, though, I can see a Heinz win. The General election would be a good one for Santorum. No 10 point but a pretty comfortable one.

He would if they try to get Heinz to run.  Casey wants an open primary so he can raise money.  He knows Santorum is going to have from now until November 06 to raise money.  Casey wants the same.  He has nothing to lose by dropping out and waiting until 2010.

[Keystone Phil]

I have a feeling they aren't done going after Chris Heinz. The Pro Choice groups made a big fuss about Casey and then it quited down all of the sudden. Maybe something's going on...or atleast that's what I'm hoping for...

That happens, Casey gets pissed and drops out.  PA Dems are left with Hoeffel Jr. from the west and end up losing badly.

Casey won't drop out. He won't do that to the national leaders. If Heinz runs, though, I can see a Heinz win. The General election would be a good one for Santorum. No 10 point but a pretty comfortable one.

He would if they try to get Heinz to run.  Casey wants an open primary so he can raise money.  He knows Santorum is going to have from now until November 06 to raise money.  Casey wants the same.  He has nothing to lose by dropping out and waiting until 2010.

I think it would be too risky. The national Dems would be throwing a fit. I'm sure they've spoken with Heinz, telling him not to run but if the Pro Choice groups can offer him a nice deal, he might just take it.

[Smash255]

I have a feeling they aren't done going after Chris Heinz. The Pro Choice groups made a big fuss about Casey and then it quited down all of the sudden. Maybe something's going on...or atleast that's what I'm hoping for...

That happens, Casey gets pissed and drops out.  PA Dems are left with Hoeffel Jr. from the west and end up losing badly.

Casey won't drop out. He won't do that to the national leaders. If Heinz runs, though, I can see a Heinz win. The General election would be a good one for Santorum. No 10 point but a pretty comfortable one.

He would if they try to get Heinz to run.  Casey wants an open primary so he can raise money.  He knows Santorum is going to have from now until November 06 to raise money.  Casey wants the same.  He has nothing to lose by dropping out and waiting until 2010.

I think it would be too risky. The national Dems would be throwing a fit. I'm sure they've spoken with Heinz, telling him not to run but if the Pro Choice groups can offer him a nice deal, he might just take it.

Heinz may actually not do that bad & has a chance to  beat Santorum (Casey has a much better chance obviously)  Heinz will do better in Western PA than another Dem more on the liberal side like hafer would because he is from that area &  he will beat Santorum up pretty bad in SE PA.  Santorum probably would still beat Heinz, but it won't be as easy as some people think

[Keystone Phil]

I have a feeling they aren't done going after Chris Heinz. The Pro Choice groups made a big fuss about Casey and then it quited down all of the sudden. Maybe something's going on...or atleast that's what I'm hoping for...

That happens, Casey gets pissed and drops out.  PA Dems are left with Hoeffel Jr. from the west and end up losing badly.

Casey won't drop out. He won't do that to the national leaders. If Heinz runs, though, I can see a Heinz win. The General election would be a good one for Santorum. No 10 point but a pretty comfortable one.

He would if they try to get Heinz to run.  Casey wants an open primary so he can raise money.  He knows Santorum is going to have from now until November 06 to raise money.  Casey wants the same.  He has nothing to lose by dropping out and waiting until 2010.

I think it would be too risky. The national Dems would be throwing a fit. I'm sure they've spoken with Heinz, telling him not to run but if the Pro Choice groups can offer him a nice deal, he might just take it.

Heinz may actually not do that bad & has a chance to  beat Santorum (Casey has a much better chance obviously)  Heinz will do better in Western PA than another Dem more on the liberal side like hafer would because he is from that area &  he will beat Santorum up pretty bad in SE PA.  Santorum probably would still beat Heinz, but it won't be as easy as some people think

Heinz could win but Santorum would finish him off in the debates. Chris Heinz is overrated.

[Jake]

Heinz may actually not do that bad & has a chance to  beat Santorum (Casey has a much better chance obviously)  Heinz will do better in Western PA than another Dem more on the liberal side like hafer would because he is from that area &  he will beat Santorum up pretty bad in SE PA.  Santorum probably would still beat Heinz, but it won't be as easy as some people think

Heinz would win Allegheny, Washington, Erie, Fayette, and Greene, only Allegheny and Erie convincingly.  I can easily see him losing badly in the Northeast and in the Lehigh Valley, plus the Southeast would be his by large margins.  Overall 53-46 Santorum.

[WMS]

My "non-PA residents" comment was intended to be a shot at ALL non-PA residents from both sides of the fence.  I find it amusing when someone (regardless of which side they are on) claims to know all about how the residents there will behave.  I certainly don't have any special insight into what motivates votes in New Mexico and I wouldn't want to pretend I did.

You called?

Show me where I made any such claim, please. I'm not sure if it was in this thread or one of the other PA Senate threads, but I do believe I asked what you all thought about PA (how many voters on either side could switch) and never claimed that I knew how PA voters would act...?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't think he was referring to you in particular, just throwing a random state out.

[Smash255]

I have a feeling they aren't done going after Chris Heinz. The Pro Choice groups made a big fuss about Casey and then it quited down all of the sudden. Maybe something's going on...or atleast that's what I'm hoping for...

That happens, Casey gets pissed and drops out.  PA Dems are left with Hoeffel Jr. from the west and end up losing badly.

Casey won't drop out. He won't do that to the national leaders. If Heinz runs, though, I can see a Heinz win. The General election would be a good one for Santorum. No 10 point but a pretty comfortable one.

He would if they try to get Heinz to run.  Casey wants an open primary so he can raise money.  He knows Santorum is going to have from now until November 06 to raise money.  Casey wants the same.  He has nothing to lose by dropping out and waiting until 2010.

I think it would be too risky. The national Dems would be throwing a fit. I'm sure they've spoken with Heinz, telling him not to run but if the Pro Choice groups can offer him a nice deal, he might just take it.

Heinz may actually not do that bad & has a chance to  beat Santorum (Casey has a much better chance obviously)  Heinz will do better in Western PA than another Dem more on the liberal side like hafer would because he is from that area &  he will beat Santorum up pretty bad in SE PA.  Santorum probably would still beat Heinz, but it won't be as easy as some people think

Heinz could win but Santorum would finish him off in the debates. Chris Heinz is overrated.

I haven't seen Heinz debate so I can't comment on his debate skills.  Santorum is a pretty good speaker I will give him that, however its a possibility he could have another "slip of the tounge" and that would hurt him.  Overall I still give the edge to Santorum (2-3 points), but a Santorum Heinz race in my opinon would be the closest of the big 3 candidates named (Heinz, Casey & Hafer)

[WMS]

I don't think he was referring to you in particular, just throwing a random state out.

Well, NM doesn't get mentioned much so it tended to catch my eye.

[Wakie]

Well, there are what, 12 million people in PA? I doubt Wakie knows them all, or even a very significant portion of eligible voters. The sample he does know, as with most people in most places, is unlikely to be very representative for self-selecting reasons.

So in reality living in PA gives you only a slight benefit in terms of analysis, except for some people within the parties perhaps (if they have access to real polls, not the garbage publicized so far about this race).

Yes and no.  I do have the benefit of living in PA and every day being faced with the issues a PA resident faces.  I have the advantage of dealing with other PA residents every day (whether that is at work, at the supermarket, going to a movie theater, etc.).  Is it somewhat self-selecting?  Sure.  But it still gives a much better insight than you have in Virginia.  I don't recall, were you one of the many conservatives who was online here screaming that Bush would carry PA by a double-digit margin?

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Santorum definitely picked up many Gore voters in 2000 because (A) Klink was painted as a an extreme left-winger (even though he wasn't), (B) Santorum had A LOT more money to get his name out than Klink did, and (C) there was a greater general focus on the Presidential race.

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1) He is
2) His belief that there is no fundamental right to privacy and his statements to that effect reinforce that he's an extremist.

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Casey isn't as battle-tested as Santorum.  That is true.  But he also doesn't bear the scars that Santorum does.  Seriously ... what are you going to hit him with?  And Santorum already has the Penn Hills-Home Schooling scandal sitting on him.

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Not towing the party line on one or two votes isn't going to win things for Santorum.  You are right that Casey will have to do a great job of defining himself though before the GOP defines him.

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WRONG.  Santorum is decidedly anti-labor and PA is very much a pro-labor state.  Casey is much closer in line with PA's economics.

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On social issues its a lot closer than you think it is.  And that NRA endorsement helps in the middle of the state but not so much in Pittsburgh or Philadelphia.

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Out of state, definitely Santorum.  In state, slightly Santorum.  Casey's name opens A LOT of doors for him.

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You are also forgetting another key.  He's a moderate.  PA loves moderates.

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That's an easy-dodge issue.  The judges being filibustered aren't being filibustered for their pro-life positions.  They are being filibustered for at least 1 of these 3 reasons:

1) Their anti-civil rights positions
2) Their general lack of experience
3) Their general corruption

[Wakie]

I have a feeling they aren't done going after Chris Heinz. The Pro Choice groups made a big fuss about Casey and then it quited down all of the sudden. Maybe something's going on...or atleast that's what I'm hoping for...

I can say this ... early on I was big on the idea of Chris Heinz running.  And he still may make a run at a seat in the House (and in 6 years for what will certainly be an empty seat when Specter retires).  But I can tell you with 99.999% certainty that Chris Heinz IS NOT going to run.  He is in tightly with the party leadership.  They handpicked Casey.  They don't want ANYONE to oppose him in the primary.  If Heinz were to do that he'd be shooting himself in the foot for getting their support in the future AND he'd likely lose.