PPP: Surprisingly close race nationally, even with Christie's favorables down (user search)
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  PPP: Surprisingly close race nationally, even with Christie's favorables down (search mode)
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Author Topic: PPP: Surprisingly close race nationally, even with Christie's favorables down  (Read 1906 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« on: January 29, 2014, 01:50:28 PM »

Last month Christie led Clinton in a head to head, 45/42. Now Clinton has the upper hand on him at 45/43. That's similar to the small leads Clinton holds over the rest of her potential Republican opponents- she's up 45/43 on Bush, 46/44 on Ryan, 46/43 on Huckabee and Paul, and 47/41 on Cruz.

Clinton's leads might be modest but there's not much doubt Democrats would be in a far, far better position with her than any of their other potential candidates. Even with Christie's declining popularity he would still lead Elizabeth Warren by 9 points (43/34) and Joe Biden by 11 points (46/35) in hypothetical contests.

(...)

Christie's problems are even bigger with the overall electorate though. His net favorability has dropped 27 points in a month from +12 at 43/31 to now -15 at 31/46. He's gone from having the best numbers of the potential Republican candidates to the worst in the span of a month. Christie had been popular because of his unusual amount of appeal to Democrats and independents. But now he's become deeply unpopular with both of those groups, dropping from 38/36 to 20/58 with the former and from 46/28 to 29/44 with the latter.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/01/huckabee-up-clinton-down.html#more
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2014, 01:56:54 PM »

Hillary's favorable rating was 45-47 in this one.

Must be the first poll in a few years to show a negative favorable rating.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #2 on: February 15, 2014, 09:45:57 AM »

I have a theory that PPP is adding some bias to their results to fuel the anti-Hillary movement. All the other polls show her up big over Christie, and this outlier shows it close. I wouldn't be surprised if most at PPP are rooting for Elizabeth Warren, Brian Schweitzer, or someone else to get the nomination.

I think there's a greater chance that the national polls by Marist, showing huge leads for Clinton, are blown up.

If you look at recent state polls by Quinnipiac, where Clinton is tied with Christie in CO and only has 2012-ish margins in NY, I think the national lead is somewhere around 5-10%, not 20%+
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