PPP: Surprisingly close race nationally, even with Christie's favorables down
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  PPP: Surprisingly close race nationally, even with Christie's favorables down
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Author Topic: PPP: Surprisingly close race nationally, even with Christie's favorables down  (Read 1898 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: January 29, 2014, 01:50:28 PM »

Last month Christie led Clinton in a head to head, 45/42. Now Clinton has the upper hand on him at 45/43. That's similar to the small leads Clinton holds over the rest of her potential Republican opponents- she's up 45/43 on Bush, 46/44 on Ryan, 46/43 on Huckabee and Paul, and 47/41 on Cruz.

Clinton's leads might be modest but there's not much doubt Democrats would be in a far, far better position with her than any of their other potential candidates. Even with Christie's declining popularity he would still lead Elizabeth Warren by 9 points (43/34) and Joe Biden by 11 points (46/35) in hypothetical contests.

(...)

Christie's problems are even bigger with the overall electorate though. His net favorability has dropped 27 points in a month from +12 at 43/31 to now -15 at 31/46. He's gone from having the best numbers of the potential Republican candidates to the worst in the span of a month. Christie had been popular because of his unusual amount of appeal to Democrats and independents. But now he's become deeply unpopular with both of those groups, dropping from 38/36 to 20/58 with the former and from 46/28 to 29/44 with the latter.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/01/huckabee-up-clinton-down.html#more
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2014, 01:56:54 PM »

Hillary's favorable rating was 45-47 in this one.

Must be the first poll in a few years to show a negative favorable rating.
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New_Conservative
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« Reply #2 on: January 29, 2014, 03:47:01 PM »

Interesting indeed,

Is she still getting 70%+ support from Democrats in polls regarding the nomination?
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Devils30
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« Reply #3 on: January 29, 2014, 07:35:08 PM »

its the midterm electorate so its a bit whiter than what we'll have in 2016.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: January 29, 2014, 07:39:27 PM »

No person with such atrocious favorables as Christie's will even come close to winning an election.

its the midterm electorate so its a bit whiter than what we'll have in 2016.

That's a good question. What kind of electorate is PPP polling. A whiter, older, more conservative midterm one or a more diverse, younger, more liberal one?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: January 29, 2014, 07:48:24 PM »

Once he steps onto natl stage and press, his favorables will decline.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #6 on: January 29, 2014, 08:00:24 PM »
« Edited: January 29, 2014, 08:01:55 PM by Likely Voter »

More evidence that Jeb Bush has an opening to be the new establishment frontrunner, if he decides to show more interest in the race
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7 on: January 29, 2014, 08:29:22 PM »

GE matchups:

Clinton 45%
Bush 43%

Clinton 45%
Christie 43%

Clinton 47%
Cruz 41%

Clinton 46%
Huckabee 43%

Clinton 46%
Paul 43%

Clinton 46%
Ryan 44%

Christie 46%
Biden 35%

Christie 43%
Warren 34%

fav/unfav:
Huckabee 37/38% for -1%
Clinton 45/47% for -2%
Ryan 33/39% for -6%
Warren 23/29% for -6%
Bush 34/41% for -7%
Paul 33/42% for -9%
Cruz 28/38% for -10%
Biden 34/49% for -15%
Christie 31/46% for -15%

Should also note that I think this might be their first (or one of their first?) polls to include internet contacts as well as telephone contacts.  20% of the poll participants were reached via internet.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #8 on: January 29, 2014, 08:34:40 PM »

Hillary's favorable rating was 45-47 in this one.

Must be the first poll in a few years to show a negative favorable rating.

YouGov has a tracking poll that usually includes a Hillary Clinton favorability question.  They did have one recent poll in which her favorability was underwater:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating

In any case, here's the overall trend, from all pollsters, on Clinton's national favorability:



But the recent polls are dominated by YouGov, so if you take those out:


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jfern
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« Reply #9 on: January 29, 2014, 08:40:12 PM »

Hillary is so electable, that she's up 2 points on a massively corrupt fat ass.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: January 29, 2014, 11:02:40 PM »

Hillary is so electable, that she's up 2 points on a massively corrupt fat ass.

And Biden and Warren are trailing said massively corrupt fatass by 11 and 9 points, so...yes?

This poll is an obvious outlier anyway. Every other poll has Hillary at least up 15 on Cruz. Only 6? Not buying it.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_cruz_vs_clinton-4034.html
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Brewer
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« Reply #11 on: January 29, 2014, 11:18:47 PM »

So Warren is trailing Christie by a lesser margin than Biden? Sweet.
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jfern
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« Reply #12 on: January 30, 2014, 01:12:56 AM »

Hillary is so electable, that she's up 2 points on a massively corrupt fat ass.

And Biden and Warren are trailing said massively corrupt fatass by 11 and 9 points, so...yes?

This poll is an obvious outlier anyway. Every other poll has Hillary at least up 15 on Cruz. Only 6? Not buying it.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_cruz_vs_clinton-4034.html


She's got 65% in the primary, so a lot of that difference is her supporters saying they'll only support her. That will definitely change if someone else actually gets the nomination.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #13 on: January 30, 2014, 07:20:10 AM »

Digging into the numbers further…..Christie *still* has the most crossover support of any candidate.  20% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of him, which is more than any other Republican.

%age of Democrats with a favorable opinion of…

Christie 20%
Bush 13%
Cruz 13%
Huckabee 13%
Ryan 10%
Paul 8%

What about the %age of Republicans with a favorable opinion of…

Clinton 9%
Biden 6%
Warren 6%

So how is Christie's overall favorability so poor, if he has stronger crossover support than any other candidate from either party?  It's because his #s among his own party are so poor.

%age of Republicans with an *unfavorable* opinion of…

Christie 35%
Paul 20%
Cruz 19%
Bush 18%
Huckabee 15%
Ryan 13%

In other news, Cruz is the most well like Republican among Hispanics:

fav/unfav among Hispanics:

Cruz 38/36% for +2%
Ryan 28/39% for -11%
Huckabee 23/42% for -19%
Paul 27/48% for -21%
Bush 26/48% for -22%
Christie 18/49% for -31%

Cruz also gets 35% of Hispanics in his GE matchup against Clinton.

There is an enormous gender gap in the matchups against Clinton:

Bush vs. Clinton:
men: Bush +14%
women: Clinton +17%
31 point difference

Christie vs. Clinton:
men: Christie +13%
women: Clinton +15%
28 point difference

It's not quite as big with Warren, however:

Christie vs. Warren:
men: Christie +20%
women: tie
20 point difference

Finally, the age gap…

Christie vs. Clinton by age:
18-29: Clinton +24%
30-45: Clinton +2%
46-65: Clinton +1%
65+: Christie +11%

Bush vs. Clinton by age:
18-29: Clinton +28%
30-45: Clinton +7%
46-65: Bush +3%
65+: Bush +13%
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: January 30, 2014, 12:16:22 PM »

Hillary is so electable, that she's up 2 points on a massively corrupt fat ass.

And Biden and Warren are trailing said massively corrupt fatass by 11 and 9 points, so...yes?

This poll is an obvious outlier anyway. Every other poll has Hillary at least up 15 on Cruz. Only 6? Not buying it.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_cruz_vs_clinton-4034.html


She's got 65% in the primary, so a lot of that difference is her supporters saying they'll only support her. That will definitely change if someone else actually gets the nomination.

That would account for some of the difference. Not all of it.
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #15 on: February 15, 2014, 09:42:28 AM »

I have a theory that PPP is adding some bias to their results to fuel the anti-Hillary movement. All the other polls show her up big over Christie, and this outlier shows it close. I wouldn't be surprised if most at PPP are rooting for Elizabeth Warren, Brian Schweitzer, or someone else to get the nomination.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #16 on: February 15, 2014, 09:45:57 AM »

I have a theory that PPP is adding some bias to their results to fuel the anti-Hillary movement. All the other polls show her up big over Christie, and this outlier shows it close. I wouldn't be surprised if most at PPP are rooting for Elizabeth Warren, Brian Schweitzer, or someone else to get the nomination.

I think there's a greater chance that the national polls by Marist, showing huge leads for Clinton, are blown up.

If you look at recent state polls by Quinnipiac, where Clinton is tied with Christie in CO and only has 2012-ish margins in NY, I think the national lead is somewhere around 5-10%, not 20%+
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Mechaman
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« Reply #17 on: February 15, 2014, 10:03:52 AM »

Hillary Clinton's favorability is going down as people keep talking about her years before the actual election?

Why am I not shocked?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: February 15, 2014, 12:21:37 PM »

I have a theory that PPP is adding some bias to their results to fuel the anti-Hillary movement. All the other polls show her up big over Christie, and this outlier shows it close. I wouldn't be surprised if most at PPP are rooting for Elizabeth Warren, Brian Schweitzer, or someone else to get the nomination.

I think there's a greater chance that the national polls by Marist, showing huge leads for Clinton, are blown up.

If you look at recent state polls by Quinnipiac, where Clinton is tied with Christie in CO and only has 2012-ish margins in NY, I think the national lead is somewhere around 5-10%, not 20%+

At the moment, the RCP average is Clinton +12.0. The median is Clinton +12.5. The average if you exclude the highest/lowest polls is Clinton +12.3. That's pretty stable.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_christie_vs_clinton-3766.html
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #19 on: February 16, 2014, 10:55:38 PM »

...and again, forgetting PPP's national numbers in 2012 weren't exactly awesome. I always listen to their state-level polls, but nationally, something is broken.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #20 on: February 18, 2014, 09:01:32 PM »

Christie has probably fallen further in the past few weeks.  Nonetheless, I think we are seeing early indications that Obama will be relevant.  Hillary is likely strong enough to turn a would be toss up race into a win.  But if Obama is below 40% come 2016, that should be enough for the R to win automatically like a reverse 2008.
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