PPP: Surprisingly close race nationally, even with Christie's favorables down

[Mr. Morden]

GE matchups:

Clinton 45%
Bush 43%

Clinton 45%
Christie 43%

Clinton 47%
Cruz 41%

Clinton 46%
Huckabee 43%

Clinton 46%
Paul 43%

Clinton 46%
Ryan 44%

Christie 46%
Biden 35%

Christie 43%
Warren 34%

fav/unfav:
Huckabee 37/38% for -1%
Clinton 45/47% for -2%
Ryan 33/39% for -6%
Warren 23/29% for -6%
Bush 34/41% for -7%
Paul 33/42% for -9%
Cruz 28/38% for -10%
Biden 34/49% for -15%
Christie 31/46% for -15%

Should also note that I think this might be their first (or one of their first?) polls to include internet contacts as well as telephone contacts.  20% of the poll participants were reached via internet.

[Mr. Morden]

Hillary's favorable rating was 45-47 in this one.

Must be the first poll in a few years to show a negative favorable rating.

YouGov has a tracking poll that usually includes a Hillary Clinton favorability question.  They did have one recent poll in which her favorability was underwater:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating

In any case, here's the overall trend, from all pollsters, on Clinton's national favorability:



But the recent polls are dominated by YouGov, so if you take those out:

[Mr. Morden]

Digging into the numbers further…..Christie *still* has the most crossover support of any candidate.  20% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of him, which is more than any other Republican.

%age of Democrats with a favorable opinion of…

Christie 20%
Bush 13%
Cruz 13%
Huckabee 13%
Ryan 10%
Paul 8%

What about the %age of Republicans with a favorable opinion of…

Clinton 9%
Biden 6%
Warren 6%

So how is Christie's overall favorability so poor, if he has stronger crossover support than any other candidate from either party?  It's because his #s among his own party are so poor.

%age of Republicans with an *unfavorable* opinion of…

Christie 35%
Paul 20%
Cruz 19%
Bush 18%
Huckabee 15%
Ryan 13%

In other news, Cruz is the most well like Republican among Hispanics:

fav/unfav among Hispanics:

Cruz 38/36% for +2%
Ryan 28/39% for -11%
Huckabee 23/42% for -19%
Paul 27/48% for -21%
Bush 26/48% for -22%
Christie 18/49% for -31%

Cruz also gets 35% of Hispanics in his GE matchup against Clinton.

There is an enormous gender gap in the matchups against Clinton:

Bush vs. Clinton:
men: Bush +14%
women: Clinton +17%
31 point difference

Christie vs. Clinton:
men: Christie +13%
women: Clinton +15%
28 point difference

It's not quite as big with Warren, however:

Christie vs. Warren:
men: Christie +20%
women: tie
20 point difference

Finally, the age gap…

Christie vs. Clinton by age:
18-29: Clinton +24%
30-45: Clinton +2%
46-65: Clinton +1%
65+: Christie +11%

Bush vs. Clinton by age:
18-29: Clinton +28%
30-45: Clinton +7%
46-65: Bush +3%
65+: Bush +13%