Trends of the largest states (put together)

[eric82oslo]

In modern US presidential politics, it will suffice (this decade) to win only 11 states to reach 270 EVs, and thus win the election outright. In an ideal, perfect storm of course. Those 11 states are: California, Texas, New York, Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina and New Jersey. So let's take a look at their presidential trending starting way back in 1988 and make this a cummulative excercise in presidential as well as demographic shifts. Starting with the biggest of them all, California.

California's trendline

1988
47 EVs
352,684 vote margin out of 9,757,150 votes cast
+3.57% for Bush
+4.16% D leaning

1992
54 EVs
1,490,751 vote margin out of 8,751,899 votes cast
+13.39% for Clinton
+7.83% D leaning

1996
54 EVs
1,291,455 vote margin out of 8,948,215 votes cast
+12.89% for Clinton
+4.36% D leaning

2000
54 EVs
1,293,774 vote margin out of 10,428,632 votes cast
+11.8% for Gore
+11.28% D leaning

2004
55 EVs
1,235,659 vote margin out of 12,255,311 votes cast
+9.95% for Kerry
+12.41% D leaning

2008
55 EVs
3,262,692 vote margin out of 13,286,254 votes cast
+24.06% for Obama
+16.79% D leaning

2012
55 EVs
3,014,327 vote margin out of 12,694,243 votes cast
+23.12% for Obama
+19.27% D leaning

Now let's add Texas to the mix.

California's + Texas' trendline

1988
76 EVs (47+29)
1,036,765 vote margin out of 15,146,727 votes cast
+6.84% for Bush
+0.89% D leaning

1992
86 EVs (54+32)
1,276,495 vote margin out of 13,529,785 votes cast
+9.43% for Clinton
+3.87% D leaning

1996
86 EVs
1,014,971 vote margin out of 14,144,065 votes cast
+7.18% for Clinton
+1.34% R leaning

2000
86 EVs
72,119 vote margin out of 16,662,017 votes cast
+0.43% for Bush
+0.95% R leaning

2004
89 EVs (55+34)
458,554 vote margin out of 19,614,932 votes cast
+2.34% for Bush
+0.12% D leaning

2008
89 EVs
2,311,997 vote margin out of 21,294,215 votes cast
+10.86% for Obama
+3.59% D leaning

2012
93 EVs (55+38)
1,752,608 vote margin out of 20,572,210 votes cast
+8.52% for Obama
+4.67% D leaning

I only have 11,000 characters, so I'll better continue with adding New York and Florida to the mix in my next post.

[eric82oslo]

Here comes adding New York to the soup.

California's + Texas' + New York's trendline

1988
112 EVs (47+29+36)
770,754 vote margin out of 21,576,480 votes cast
+3.57% for Bush
+4.16% D leaning

1992
119 EVs (54+32+33)
2,374,296 vote margin out of 19,320,884 votes cast
+12.29% for Clinton
+6.73% D leaning

1996
119 EVs
2,837,656 vote margin out of 19,833,734 votes cast
+14.31% for Clinton
+5.79% D leaning

2000
119 EVs
1,632,204 vote margin out of 23,173,088 votes cast
+7.04% for Gore
+6.52% D leaning

2004
120 EVs (55+34+31)
893,159 vote margin out of 26,891,779 votes cast
+3.32% for Kerry
+5.78% D leaning

2008
120 EVs
4,364,171 vote margin out of 28,851,931 votes cast
+15.13% for Obama
+7.86% D leaning

2012
122 EVs (55+38+29)
3,747,918 vote margin out of 27,548,382 votes cast
+13.6% for Obama
+9.75% D leaning

Now let's add Florida's votes into this witches' brew.


California's + Texas' + New York's + Florida's trendline

1988
133 EVs (47+29+36+21)
1,732,938 vote margin out of 25,852,066 votes cast
+6.7% for Bush
+1.03% D leaning

1992
144 EVs (54+32+33+25)
2,273,684 vote margin out of 23,566,892 votes cast
+9.65% for Clinton
+4.09% D leaning

1996
144 EVs
3,139,990 vote margin out of 24,625,140 votes cast
+12.75% for Clinton
+4.23% D leaning

2000
144 EVs
1,631,667 vote margin out of 28,998,131 votes cast
+5.63% for Gore
+5.11% D leaning

2004
147 EVs (55+34+31+27)
512,181 vote margin out of 34,439,845 votes cast
+1.49% for Kerry
+3.95% D leaning

2008
147 EVs
4,600,621 vote margin out of 37,179,629 votes cast
+12.37% for Obama
+5.1% D leaning

2012
151 EVs (55+38+29+29)
3,822,227 vote margin out of 35,949,585 votes cast
+10.63% for Obama
+6.78% D leaning

Next time I'll add Illinois and Pennsylvania as well, so stay tuned.