Tasmania 2014

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, at least this is out the way now. Let's hope that lessons can be learned.

And as always polls overestimated the Greens.

[BigSkyBob]

Here are my predictions:

Bass - 3 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 Green
Braddon- 3 Liberal, 2 Labor
Denison - 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Green
Franklin - 3 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 Green
Lyons - 3 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 Green

Total: 14 Liberal, 7 Labor, 4 Green

I still stand by this prediction going into tomorrow.

So far, I'm a lot more spot on here than I was in SA...

What is the likely flow of preferences in Braddon?

[Hifly]

Well the Liberals could get 4 seats in Braddon, unless there's Liberal preference leakage to Brenton Best, in which case he still has a chance of winning a seat for a 3-2 result.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Clive Palmer thinks the Tasmanian election was fixed...

[Smid]

He thought his own election was rigged and he prevailed despite the Electoral Commission's best efforts. Conspiracy  theorist gonna theorize...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Well the Liberals could get 4 seats in Braddon, unless there's Liberal preference leakage to Brenton Best, in which case he still has a chance of winning a seat for a 3-2 result.

It looks like Giddings and Labor might secretly prefer the last seat going to a Liberal rather than Best, who apparently is a bit of a wannabe rebel who likes rocking the boat.

[BigSkyBob]

Looks like 15-7-3


3  4 2 3 3
1  1 2 1 2
1  0 1 1 0

http://www.tec.tas.gov.au/StateElection/Results.html

[Hifly]

Congratulations to David Llewellyn and Madeleine Ogilvie.