CA-GOV: Brown vs. Donnelly

[henster]

What do you think the margin would be and how big of a blowout would it be for Brown?

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm guessing something like 63-37, but I haven't seen much info on it yet.

[Rocky Rockefeller]

59-39 is my guess as of now.

[henster]

The top two primary system in CA ensures that it will just be Brown and Donnelly on the ballot no third parties so if Feinstein won by 63-37 in 2012 I could see Brown winning 66-34.

[Rocky Rockefeller]

The top two primary system in CA ensures that it will just be Brown and Donnelly on the ballot no third parties

That's right I forgot! I guess 60-40 would be a more appropriate prediction.

[Napoleon]

67-33?

[TX Conservative Dem]

Brown 61-36

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

If Brown won by 13 points and Boxer won by 10 points in a massive Republican wave year, I wouldn't be surprised if Brown could crack 60% and edge near two-thirds, especially if he does any sort of campaigning. In California, no one knows (or cares) that the state is actually improving, but if he points out the good he actually has done, reelection will be even more of a cake walk than it already is.

Another something laughable: Meg Whitman spent $140 million out of pocket on her campaign for governor against Brown. What a joke.

The question I'm asking is are Democrats going to be able to hold onto their supermajorities in the state Assembly and Senate that renders Republicans completely irrelevant in Sacramento.

[smoltchanov]

The question I'm asking is are Democrats going to be able to hold onto their supermajorities in the state Assembly and Senate that renders Republicans completely irrelevant in Sacramento.

My answer would be - possible, but only if Republicans will help, by continuing to run mostly ultraconservatives (even in few patently moderate districts). Besides that - 2014 will, probably, not as good for Democrats, as 2012 was (mostly - because of rather strong drop-off in Hispanic vote)

[TX Conservative Dem]

Deukmejian was the last California Governor to crack the 60 % mark (he got 61% in 1986)

[SPC]

Does Kashkari have a chance at making the runoff?

[TX Conservative Dem]

Runoff ? Hahahahaha NO.

Donnelly will be lucky to carry 12 counties

[ElectionsGuy]

Runoff ? Hahahahaha NO.

Donnelly will be lucky to carry 12 counties

Speaking of that, actually a better question would be will Donnelly carry Orange County. Remember its trending to the left and Romney/Emken only won it by 6/5 points in 2012.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Runoff ? Hahahahaha NO.

Donnelly will be lucky to carry 12 counties

Speaking of that, actually a better question would be will Donnelly carry Orange County. Remember its trending to the left and Romney/Emken only won it by 6/5 points in 2012.

I don't think it's a question whether the Republican nominee will carry Orange County; the Republican will. A population that is 20% Asian and 20% Hispanic with a young, more progressive generation growing up in the suburbs hints that changes are upon the horizon, just not in 2014.

It would take a Mourdock/Akin/King candidate to blow Orange County for the Republicans in 2014.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Deukmejian was the last California Governor to crack the 60 % mark (he got 61% in 1986)

The only thing that I see stopping Brown from cracking 60% is if the Pub base gets ramped up on the laws regarding social issues Brown has signed (mainly - licenses for illegals, transgender children in schools, etc). But he's taken such a centrist path on the budget (considering he could go ape sh**t with spending surpluses with the Democrat supermajority in the legislature) that even the state Republicans are conceding that he has done a good job managing the state's money. Obviously their critique is it happened largely in part to tax increases, but they can only argue against those so much since after all the voters approved them by 11 points in 2012.

The people who don't like him just don't because he's Jerry Brown and he's old and been involved in California politics forever and are sick of him. But there isn't much complaining about the actual job he is doing.

[Хahar 🤔]

Does Kashkari have a chance at making the runoff?

Nobody knows who he is, so no.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Does Kashkari have a chance at making the runoff?

Nobody knows who he is, so no.

Don't be ridiculous. Everyone knows what Cash & Carry is.

[DINGO Joe]

Does Kashkari have a chance at making the runoff?

Nobody knows who he is, so no.

He might get some votes from people who think he's some form of health food.

[SPC]

Does Kashkari have a chance at making the runoff?

Nobody knows who he is, so no.

But people know who Tim Donnelly is? (Or are we operating on the assumption that Jerry Brown will follow the Gray Davis/Claire McCaskill route to ensure Donnelly is his opponent, although I don't really see the point of this since Brown is guaranteed election regardless of his opponent?)

[Хahar 🤔]

Does Kashkari have a chance at making the runoff?

Nobody knows who he is, so no.

But people know who Tim Donnelly is? (Or are we operating on the assumption that Jerry Brown will follow the Gray Davis/Claire McCaskill route to ensure Donnelly is his opponent, although I don't really see the point of this since Brown is guaranteed election regardless of his opponent?)

The Republican base knows who he is.

[TX Conservative Dem]

The CA GOP could put Miley Cyrus and get CLOBBERED by Moonbeam in November.

[Princess Nyan Cat]

Brown is pretty unpopular and hasn't delivered on his 2010 promises to reform the state government. He'll probably win for lack of a decent challenger, but I suspect it will be closer than you think.

[Alcon]

Brown is pretty unpopular and hasn't delivered on his 2010 promises to reform the state government. He'll probably win for lack of a decent challenger, but I suspect it will be closer than you think.

Is he?  I haven't seen any poll recently that says he's unpopular...

[Lief 🗽]

Brown is pretty unpopular and hasn't delivered on his 2010 promises to reform the state government. He'll probably win for lack of a decent challenger, but I suspect it will be closer than you think.

Is he?  I haven't seen any poll recently that says he's unpopular...

His approval rating is 60%...

[DrScholl]

Brown is pretty unpopular and hasn't delivered on his 2010 promises to reform the state government. He'll probably win for lack of a decent challenger, but I suspect it will be closer than you think.

This is completely inaccurate....