South Africa 2014

[Hash]

For those interested, I suppose starting this thread now would be a good idea as the campaign is getting kicked off with the first ANC shenanigans. My personal opinion is that this campaign/election will be the most interesting of all post-94 elections, especially with the ANC's various troubles and the emergence of two new black parties - including Malema's cultists - providing even more direct competition to the ANC.

For those particularly interested, I am working on a megaguide to the election over on my blog (http://welections.wordpress.com/guide-to-the-2014-south-african-election/). I've already covered the details of the political/electoral system. Depending on how much time I have, I'm still willing to make maps of the 2011 or 2009 elections by ward for specific municipalities.

[DC Al Fine]

YAAAAAAYYYYYY!!!!

I've been checking that "Coming Soon" post for too long

[freefair]

I didn't know that was your blog, Hash. It is a most Excellent resource.

[Vosem]

YAAAAAAYYYYYY!!!!

I've been checking that "Coming Soon" post for too long

[H. Ross Peron]

I didn't know that was your blog, Hash. It is a most Excellent resource.

'

This. Its always been one of my favourite blogs.

[politicus]

I didn't know that was your blog, Hash. It is a most Excellent resource.

'

This. Its always been one of my favourite blogs.

This should have been a give away:

"The editor
 
I am a dual French and Canadian citizen living in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. I am a student of political science at the University of Ottawa (Canada)".

[Hash]

I am only a Greek politician, ergo this thread's discussion of myself feels a bit awkward.

ANC launches manifesto, reiterates commitment to National Development Plan (NDP) which some partners have said is too close to the (in)famous neoliberal GEAR, promises to create 6 million jobs in the next term
http://mg.co.za/article/2014-01-11-zuma-launches-new-anc-manifesto

A good analysis of the ANC manifesto and how it will fall short of repairing broken trust with Zuma in the wake of Nkandla, e-tolls, the "Booer War" (I just love this name)
http://mg.co.za/article/2014-01-13-anc-manifesto-broken-trust-and-zuma-a-hindrance

M&G reports that the ANC NEC is resigned to sticking with Zuma and spinning the Nkandla sh**tfest
http://mg.co.za/article/2014-01-09-anc-swigs-nkandla-kool-aid

COSATU (what's left of it) at manifesto launch tells its members to stick to it. Same with the SACP.
http://mg.co.za/article/2014-01-11-at-anc-manifesto-launch

COPE: hey guys we still exist somebody vote for us plz? Says it hopes to get 51%... A+ for trolling.
http://mg.co.za/article/2014-01-11-copes-lekota-give-us-a-chance-to-do-what-we-promised

[Hash]

Today's twitterish news feed:

DA hinting about its manifesto for the Gauteng provincial elections. The DA is heavily targeting Gauteng, which, if it managed to win (an uphill battle hinging on the ANC falling under 50%; similar to Pt Elizabeth '11) would be a huge thing. Focus on jobs, corruption and a referendum on the ANC's unpopular e-tolls in GP
http://mg.co.za/article/2014-01-14-00-maimane-gives-some-clues-on-das-gauteng-election-manifesto

Could the black middle-classes vote for Malema's party which has the most Atlasian name ever (Economic Freedom Fighters)
http://www.thoughtleader.co.za/readerblog/2014/01/14/black-diamonds-could-vote-eff/

Pretty decent opinion piece by somebody who doesn't like the ANC but can't bring himself to vote DA
http://www.thoughtleader.co.za/readerblog/2014/01/13/dont-like-the-anc-vote-for-someone-else-but-who/

[Linus Van Pelt]

the "Booer War" (I just love this name)

LOL

[Hash]

Not much stuff today.

The ANC hits back at the DA's hubris, saying that it will never win GP
http://mg.co.za/article/2014-01-14-da-will-never-take-over-gauteng-says-anc

The latest in the ongoing COSATU vs Vavi/NUMSA thing. One day, perhaps in my blog, I'll come back on this
http://mg.co.za/article/2014-01-14-cosatu-hands-vavi-his-charge-sheet-five-months-later

[njwes]

Very happy you made this thread! I've got some questions if you don't mind--hopefully they'll help others too

Is there anything in the way of accurate or even quasi-accurate polling in South Africa?

Do you think the DA will improve their result significantly after their good showings in 2009 and the 2011 municipals? Should the merger a few years back with the Independent Dems bring many coloured voters to their side?

Is there any sense that Mandela's death will have an effect on this election?

Can South Africans abroad vote?

[Hash]

Is there anything in the way of accurate or even quasi-accurate polling in South Africa?

There appears to be little public polling, but significant indication that the parties do have some private/internal polling which they are keen on flaunting when the results are good but they never publish the results (as far as I'm aware). There is some public polling before and between elections, but certainly not at the level of European/American countries, and the polling is rarely very accurate (but generally not too shabby). Ipsos SA released a poll in November 2013, whose results make general sense. Their methodology appears relatively sound. For obvious reasons I'd be wary of any polling done exclusively online.

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Yes, I have the impression that the DA will improve, probably breaking the record for strongest non-ANC party currently held by the NP in 1994 (20%). A prediction by some kind of bank or something which received press in a lot of SA newspapers late last year predicted that the ANC would win 56% and that the DA would win 27%. Agang SA might take some voters which might have considered the DA, as the party's general orientation is middle-class and urban, but Agang doesn't seem to be getting off the ground much. Malema's EFF is widely expected to take ANC votes; I have a hard time seeing a DA voter defect to Malema's gangs.

I would think that the DA could achieve a result like that of 2011 (24%), when it consolidated a lot of the Coloured vote with the amalgamation of the IDs and made some minor inroads (estimated at 5-10%, likely on the lower end of that scale) with black voters, particularly with those more middle-class urban blacks who had voted COPE in 2009. The DA did manage in the vicinity of 15-20%, I guesstimate, in some black middle-class VDs in Joburg (Cosmo City offers an interesting case study here, looking at the different results in the various parts of the place). At the same time, I also have a sense that the DA will be hitting a ceiling soon. Although for the first time they have some talented black leadership, the recent behaviour on issues like employment equity and the general image of the party/leadership/management has reinforced the old ideas about the party.

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Obviously the ANC is going to play very heavily on the '20 years' and Mandela's legacy: the party's strategy focuses a lot on highlighting the progresses made by the country in these 20 years, and Zuma brought up Mandela's legacy in his manifesto launch speech in Nelspruit last week. However, while the ANC's legacy and lingering status continues to have an influence on the vote, I don't really think that Mandela's death will have a clear impact on the election results. It won't motivate people who haven't voted ANC in the past to do this year; those ANC supporters feeling queasy and lukewarm will either defect anyways because the factors pushing them to do so are very strong and emotional appeals won't do anything or they'll stick to the ANC for a variety of reasons including Mandela's legacy but more importantly a lack of appealing alternatives, yet more willingness to give the party another chance and so forth.

In short: I don't think this will have much of an impact. Voters aren't that dumb.

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Yes, this is the first election in which they can (before they could do so only if they had an address in SA). Those who aren't registered can register at SA diplomatic missions with their passport and ID book; they'll vote at the diplomatic missions.

[Hash]

Today's stuff:

GP's provincial government ad campaign raises questions - because it's in ANC colours
http://mg.co.za/article/2014-01-16-gauteng-ads-show-ancs-true-colours

The M&G got its hands on COSATU's charge sheet against its suspended SG, Zwelinzima Vavi
http://mg.co.za/article/2014-01-17-vavi-charged-with-bringing-cosatu-into-disrepute

Vavi is angry and says COSATU is behind the leak
http://mg.co.za/article/2014-01-18-vavi-trumped-up-cosatu-charges-a-selected-leak

and COSATU denies
http://mg.co.za/article/2014-01-18-cosatu-denies-leaking-vavi-charge-sheet

Here's the third installment of my Guide: race, ethnicity and language
http://welections.wordpress.com/guide-to-the-2014-south-african-election/race-ethnicity-and-language-in-south-africa/

[njwes]

Thanks so much for the detailed answers!

That prediction of 26% for the DA and 56% for the ANC sounds pretty shocking (based on my limited knowledge).

Is there any fear that, given its totally dominant position for the last 20 years, the ANC might resort to legally- or constitutionally-questionable tactics to hold onto power? (Not that a 56% result would really require that, but maybe looking ahead)

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

What are Zuma's approval figures?

[Sol]

I don't really follow South African politics as closely as I should, so a question: Why do people dislike the modern ANC?

[politicus]

I don't really follow South African politics as closely as I should, so a question: Why do people dislike the modern ANC?

They are corrupt, elitist and unable to solve the poverty problems and the breakdown of law and order + they have given up on any serious redistribution of wealth, except to their own pockets.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I don't really follow South African politics as closely as I should, so a question: Why do people dislike the modern ANC?

They are corrupt, elitist and unable to solve the poverty problems and the breakdown of law and order + they have given up on any serious redistribution of wealth, except to their own pockets.

I think there's also a simple fatigue: the ANC governing uninterruptedly for 20 years now with rather weak and fragmented opposition.

[Hash]

I don't really follow South African politics as closely as I should, so a question: Why do people dislike the modern ANC?

There are a number of reasons, I could go on for a long time, but basically:

1. The ANC is correctly seen as very corrupt and disconnected from people. There have been so many corruption scandals which have involved most major leaders and politicians within the ANC, and in large part much impunity as courts cases were dropped or the ANC/government ensured that any juicier revelations or investigations were cut short. Yet, because South Africa is not a "failed state" and has a robust, free press and some laudable public servants/independent institutions (like the Public Protector right now), a lot of those scandals refuse to go away as easily as the ANC would like it. The Arms Deal is like a huge and complex Wategate x2 involving bribery, corruption, abuse of public funds and global corporate crimes; and it has been in the news for more or less 15 years now and has hit, directly, a lot of ANC politicians including Zuma. Today, the Nkandla scandal is only the latest in a string of scandals, this one particularly bad because it's pretty easy to understand (using public money for personal use - home improvements in this case) and directly involves Zuma. The ANC's twisting and turning on Nkandla hasn't helped things out. The ANC has protected corrupt public officials (ministers, MPs, heads of public institutions such as the police) or unceremoniously dismissed those who criticized said corrupt public officials.

2. The ANC is disconnected from the people and has shown worrying signs of a culture of secrecy. There are countless examples here: how the ANC managed to shut down a parliamentary committee's impartial investigation into the Arms Deal (under Mbeki), how the ANC comes up with various policies and imposing them on the country without prior consultation of the people (assuming that only they knew best) - the e-tolls in Gauteng is the most recent example of this, the concentration of power in a closed circle of ANC leaders inaccessible to outsiders, the ANC's insensitivity to criticism and the culture of secrecy in the ANC. Under Zuma, the Secrecy Bill has faced much-deserved criticism as a threat to freedom of expression and media oversight of government abuses.

3. The ANC has been very insensitive to criticism. It has dismissed serious criticism as the rantings of racists/whites/apartheid nostalgics (and some of it is) and has preferred to play the race card or blame everything on apartheid. Zuma might be a tad better, but only because Mbeki was a paranoid freak who saw conspiracies and threats everywhere and dismissed anybody who disagreed with him out of hand (Mbeki was an elitist, technocratic and aloof guy with an overblow ego; to his credit, Zuma appears friendlier but at the same time he's not as smart as Mbeki and is often painted as an idiot). And, of course, as far as using silly rhetoric and being a demagogue goes, Julius Malema takes gold far ahead of the ANC. Still, there is a worrying trend of increasing police brutality and repression of protests (many concerning service delivery failures) or at least the ANC dismissing their very real concerns out of hand.

4. There have been countless failures in service delivery and poorly performing public services/institutions. Some of it may be due to factors outside of the ANC's control but a large part of it is due to policy failures, ineptness or the incompetence of several cabinet ministers. The current Minister of Basic Education is a massive failure presiding over an education crisis (which she denies), with most schools lacking textbooks and poor test results. Unemployment (expanded, and better, definition) is at 36%, partly for structural and economic reasons mostly outside the government's control but the ANC has clearly failed to create jobs. While it is important to recognize that there have been clear and perceptible improvements in 20 years, due to government policies, the ANC could have done far better and it has largely failed.

The police isn't all bad, but there are very real issues about its credibility, its behaviour, its probity and its ability to do its job. It has an unfortunate tendency to botch its cases which means that smoking gun cases end with acquittals because the SAPS are idiots. Many sexual offenders are either never caught or never sentenced, again oftentimes because the SAPS is inept. There is significant corruption within the SAPS and a worryingly high number of SAPS officers who probably belong in jail themselves.

5. The left - including, from time to time, parts of COSATU and SACP - is very critical of the ANC for embracing neoliberalism after 1994, most (in)famously in the form of the 'GEAR' policy framework in the late 1990s which was progressively dropped but contemporary fiscal/monetary policy is still largely orthodox. It has been good at allowing the economy to perform relatively well, but many on the left feel that by embracing GEAR liberalism, the ANC deliberately ignored redistribution, poverty alleviation and socioeconomic inequalities. Connected to my second point, it often appears that the ANC is disinterested in the plight of its constituents and more interested in holding power and filling their pockets. The Marikana massacre was the most tragic and public example of the ANC abandoning the Freedom Charter values and embracing GEAR liberalism. Other examples include the cozy ties the ANC enjoys not only with the post-94 black economic elite but also the old white economic elite which prospered under apartheid and adapted very well to the new system post-94. In 2013, there was a scandal about a plane carrying members of the wealthy Gupta family to a family wedding being allowed to land at a SANDF air force base. BEE has been good in some ways (deracializing the economic elite) but it has largely been focused on promoting a small black elite to the top (a black elite which often happens to be generous ANC donors or ANC cadres - many ANC members, including Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa or former Gauteng Premier Tokyo Sexwale, are very rich) rather than redistributing wealth. Furthermore, the BEE is abused both by the white business elites, corporations themselves and the government. BEE has contributed to deepen inequalities within racial groups while inequalities between races remain huge. Blacks undeniably live better than under apartheid and poverty has been reduced, but black incomes/material prosperity has increased slower than other races (because, yes, despite the rantings of the racists and foreign idiots, the whites have not gotten any poorer!). Obviously the issue of nationalization or land redistribution is contentious, but many people think that the ANC's very moderate and neoliberal stances on those important issues of economic equality have been a joke.

Related to the above point, COSATU and SACP have been criticized for being too interested in holding power and protecting their advantages than actually caring about workers. Marikana was a perfect symbol of COSATU's decrepitude and transformation into a union of government workers/public servants, despised by actual workers who find independent (and more radical) unions like AMCU far more credible and attractive than COSATU.

6. Some of it is due to the fact that the foreign media are imbeciles whose reporting on SA is horrible. I mean, with the BBC doing some crappy piece asking "do white South Africans have a future?" based largely on half-truths from a biased source and completely ignoring the far worse plight of the majority of the people; the media's obsession with farm attacks ("white farmers being slaughtered!") while ignoring the crimes which hurt far more people on a regular basis; and the ridiculously biased, inaccurate and misleading reporting on the country in general. Before some useful idiot decides to use this bullet point to brand me a ANC apologist or whatever crap, I invite them to read the above points and remind them that I have no great love for the ANC.

the breakdown of law and order

This is demonstrably false and you lose all credibility when you say stuff like this. Please check the facts before recycling myths.


(full disclosure: the ratio increased to 31.1 in 2012/2013)

This isn't to deny that SA has no crime issue (obviously) but rather to temper some of the lies and myths being spread out there, which has no basis in actual statistics. There's little doubt that the SAPS figures are not entirely accurate, but obviously claiming that their figures are fabricated is silly conspiracy theory stuff with no grounding in reality.

[ottermax]

With that list of points against the ANC, I'm curious to hear your thoughts on why they remain so popular.

I've always hypothesized that the alternatives have not been very strong. Also, after visiting some rural Venda villages in Limpopo where everyone has enormous pride for Jacob Zuma and the ANC, people seem more critical of local government officials than national level figures. In particular, there have been substantive improvements for most Black South Africans under the ANC although many still live in poverty. I think that since most voters remain in this group, they remain loyal sort of like Southern Democrats in the 1930s to FDR.

One remarkable thing about the ANC has been its ability to unite all Black South Africans despite linguistic and cultural differences. Especially with Zuma in charge, the last remaining ethnic party, the IFP, seems to be fading. Not sure if this is good or not, but shows that not all of Africa is doomed for ethnic factionalism.

[Storebought]

I won't block quote that amazing summary, but I will say that this line

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typifies BBC reportage about Africa as a whole. That news agency routinely engages in what I can only call "primeval" language when discussing any issue about the place.  But that is true for Western media in general: discussion of African politics, economics, health, etc., is so reduced to the level of preconceived notions of tribal savagery that the "news" given in the report is usually worthless.

Also, kudos for disabusing the ignoramus of the notion of mass breakdown of South African institutions since 1994. In a similar light, S Africa's economy grew faster under the ANC since 2000 (the intervening years 1995-2000 were indeed recessionary) than in any year from the 1970s.

I don't follow S African politics as much as some other countries in Africa, but I will state from what I gather, is that the problems of the ANC stem from being a protest cadre party that's gone "soft" and complacent. Even the corruption is overstated -- the ANC's issues stem more from staffing government positions with incompetent loyalists.

[Hash]

With that list of points against the ANC, I'm curious to hear your thoughts on why they remain so popular.

You've probably hit a lot of the main points yourself obviously (and since you actually went to SA, unlike me, you have valuable local knowledge which I unfortunately lack). There have been very real improvements for blacks in all indicators, if you want the numbers I invite you to check out my blog or explore the Census data. A lot of people have received government grants, RDP housing or gained access to services which they previously lacked (running water, electricity, improved toilet facilities, waste removal). People recognize that while not everything is perfect and that the ANC faces many issues of its own making, their lot has improved since 1994. Your point about local government bearing the blame is also quite correct I think, a lot of the service delivery protests have been directed against the local governments rather than the national government, likely because the local government is the institution responsible for service delivery locally and their presence on the ground (or lack thereof) is more 'real'.

The ANC continues to keep its aura as the liberation party, the party of Mandela and the freedom fighters against racism/apartheid; the Congress brand remains quite strong despite everything, a lot of black South Africans are indeed enormously proud of the ANC. All polls show that blacks are far more optimistic and upbeat about the direction of the country or the road traveled since 1994 than the minority groups are. Then there's the obvious point about the alternatives being terrible. The DA is beloved by the internetsz, but for the majority of actual South Africans, it remains seen as the white party (whose leader, while good, is perceived is an Afrikaner madam baas) and although it has put serious work into changing that, perceptions remain strong, their messaging often sucks, they bash the ANC too much for their own good (so that to black voters it seems as if they're downplaying/denying the real achievements of the ANC/20 years of democracy) and has a lingering tendency to be incredibly tin-eared or amateurish when it comes to what black people care about. The IFP has always been an ethnically and regionally concentrated party, loathed by a lot of non-Zulus for its Third Force etc role during apartheid and led by a senile old autocrat. COPE failed to breakthrough because it never captured the Congress brand from the ANC, it was associated with 'the bunch of losers' from Polokwane, it failed to recruit a convincing leadership and had trouble appealing to solidly ANC voters in townships or remote rural areas where you can't use the internetsz or telly to message. The UDM had brief potential but petered out quickly, becoming a Transkei regional party/Bantu Holomisa personal party. Even today, Malema's EFF probably won't appeal beyond a crowd of angry youths and Agang is useless.

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This is probably the only good thing to come out of apartheid. The NP, by playing so heavily on (imagined) 'tribal' ties and parroting the idea that there is no single black people but rather several 'nations' to 'develop separately' (which was contradictory, since at the same time that the NP was saying this, it was moving further and further away from Strijdom/Verwoerd/the Transvaal's exclusive Afrikaner nationalism towards pan-white nationalism), had the effect of pushing blacks away from ethnic/'tribal' ties towards the ANC's nonracial nationalism. None of the anti-apartheid black movements except the IFP (which claimed from time to time to be for all blacks and earlier on claimed to be the heir of the ANC tradition), some not-totally-subservient homeland leaders and Pretoria's stooges emphasized ethnic/'tribal' ties: the ANC claimed nonracial nationalism open to all races, the PAC/BC-AZAPO emphasized Africanism and black nationalism. Apartheid had the good effect of killing ethnic antagonisms by uniting the black people behind a single cause

Even the corruption is overstated -- the ANC's issues stem more from staffing government positions with incompetent loyalists.

Yeah, it is often overstated. From the media's imbecilic reporting or the myths spread by the idiots, they'd have you thinking that the ANC is basically the mafia. In reality, South Africa's rankings on the Corruption Perceptions Index is the same spot as Brazil, a bit below Italy and above China, Greece, Argentina and Mexico. Some of the corruption issues are not unique to South Africa, yet in some cases the same scandals in other countries would not be presented by the media and the idiot cohort as the sign of a failed state. Of course, Nkandla and the Arms Deal are pretty huge nevertheless.

[Kosmos]

Interesting chart, PASOK. It seems as if the crime rate peaked in the 1990s and that it was that period that gave SA a bad name crime wise, a reputation that still sticks. Though of course the murder rate is still high today, but the reduction is noteworthy.

[ag]

In the end, ANC dominance not that different from that of a lot of other national liberation movements. We are 20 years away from the end of the White rule, which we may take as a rough equivalent of "independence". This would be 1967 in, say, India or Israel (two examples of consistent electoral democracies in newly independent states).

India 1951
INC 364 seats
CPI 16
SP 12
Every other party - less than 10 seats
Independents 37
Total 489

India 1957
INC 371 seats
CPI 27
PSP 19
...
Independents 42
Total 490

India 1962
INC 361
CPI 29
SP 18
BJS 14
PSP 12
RPI 10
...
Independents 20
Total 494

India 1967
INC 283
SP 44
BJS 35
DMK 25
CPI 23
SSP 23
CPI(M) 19
PSP 13
....
Independents 35
Total 520

20 years from independence was the first time INC started losing seats, but it was still strongly dominant.

[ag]

Israel is slightly different, because of the PR and the lack of a single liberation movement. Still, Mapai (pre-Labor) was, arguably, the independence party and Mapam (further on the left - in a way, pre-Meretz) could be viewed as coming from the same tradition. 120 seats with PR - these days 35 seats, I believe, counts as the strong success. Mapai did not drop below 40 seats in the first 20 years.

Israel 1949
Mapai (pre-Labor) 46 seats
Mapam (pre-Meretz) 19 seats
United Religious Front 16 seats
Herut (one of the pre-Likuds) 14 seats
everybody else under 10 seats each
Total 120

Israel 1951
Mapai 45
General Zionists (another pre-Likud) 20 seats
Mapam  15 seats
everybody else under 10 seats each
Total 120

Israel 1955
Mapai 40
Herut 15
General Zionists 13
National Religious Front 11
Ahdut HaAvoda (a Mapam splinter, eventually to merge with Mapai to become Labor) 10
everybody else under 10 seats each
Total 120

Israel 1959
Mapai 47
Herut 17
National Religious Party (NRP) 12
everybody else under 10 each
Total 120

Israel 1961
Mapai 42
Herut 17
Liberal Party (former General Zionists, pre-Likud) 17
NRP 12
everybody else under 10 each
total 120

Israel 1965
Alignment (Mapai merged with Ahdut HaAvoda, pre-Labor) 45
Gahal (Herut merged with Libreals, pre-Likud) 26
NRP 11
Rafi (Mapai splinter, later to remerge into Labor) 10

Israel 1969
Alignment 56
Gahal 26
NRP 12

Again, every single election during this period has the same dominant party (even if it does not get the same kind of a majority as ANC).