Illinois, only by a little bit though. Obama undoubtedly had a home state advantage in '08, but I think it wore off in '12, so the current PVI's of both states right now are pretty accurate. In order for democrats to win Texas, they need to win Tarrant County and to crack the suburbs so they're only in slight favor of republicans. In order for republicans to win Illinois, they need to sweep rural and suburban areas heavily in their favor and get at least 30-35% in Cook County. Both are very hard to do, but Mark Kirk showed us how republicans can win Illinois with his victory. No democrat has showed us how to crack Texas yet, but it is very well possible.
Texas because of the high hispanic population.
You cannot crack the Democratic machine in Chicagoland, it is nearly impossible.
The problem with that is, Hispanics voted in high percentages for Obama in 2012, and Romney still handily won despite getting swamped in South and Southwestern Texas. More Hispanic turnout and population won't get democrats anywhere for a long time, if they want to win Texas now (or in 2.5 years), they have to make inroads with white voters in urban and suburban areas. For Illinois, it is almost impossible to crack the dem machine in Chicago, but I think of it as two states, Cook County (1) and the rest (2). The republican strategy shouldn't be cracking Chicago, it should be getting enough overwhelming vote from the rest of the state and the suburbs to override the machine and get a narrow victory.
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