Pennsylvania

[Jake]

So what is a swing state to you.  Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico were the only ones closer this year (IIRC).

[Jake]

States within 5.00% or so

Wisconsin               Kerry +0.38%
Iowa                       Bush  +0.67%
New Mexico            Bush  +0.79%
New Hampshire     Kerry +1.37%
Ohio                       Bush  +2.10%
Pennsylvania         Kerry +2.50%
Nevada                  Bush  +2.59%
Michigan                Kerry +3.42%
Minnesota             Kerry +3.48%
Oregon                  Kerry +4.16%
Colorado               Bush  +4.67%
Florida                    Bush  +5.01%

[Jake]

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How embarassing, he only gained 1.67%
                                 2000                2004                Swing
Florida                  Bush +0.01%  Bush +5.01%   Bush +5.00%
New Mexico          Gore +0.06%  Bush +0.79%   Bush +0.85%
Wisconsin             Gore +0.22%  Kerry +0.38%  Kerry +0.16%
Iowa                     Gore +0.32%  Bush +0.67%  Bush  +1.09%
Oregon                 Gore +0.44%  Kerry +4.16%  Kerry +3.72%
New Hampshire    Bush +1.27%  Kerry +1.37%  Kerry +2.64%
Minnesota             Gore +2.41%  Kerry +3.48%  Kerry +1.07% 
Ohio                      Bush +3.51%  Bush +2.10%  Kerry  +1.41%
Nevada                 Bush +3.54%  Bush +2.59%   Kerry  +0.95%
Pennsylvania         Gore +4.17%  Kerry +2.50%  Bush  +1.67%

[Jake]

PA in the next two elections.

[Jake]

Ah. You're all playing with trends. Not a good idea, but you'll learn.

Yup, but some trends are well established, like the SE RINO's voting Democrat.  Some, like Luzerne going GOP, are just guesses on my part.

[Jake]

                                 2000                2004                Swing
Florida                  Bush +0.01%  Bush +5.01%   Bush +5.00%
New Mexico          Gore +0.06%  Bush +0.79%   Bush +0.85%
Wisconsin             Gore +0.22%  Kerry +0.38%  Kerry +0.16%
Iowa                     Gore +0.32%  Bush +0.67%  Bush  +1.09%
Oregon                 Gore +0.44%  Kerry +4.16%  Kerry +3.72%
New Hampshire    Bush +1.27%  Kerry +1.37%  Kerry +2.64%
Minnesota             Gore +2.41%  Kerry +3.48%  Kerry +1.07% 
Ohio                      Bush +3.51%  Bush +2.10%  Kerry  +1.41%
Nevada                 Bush +3.54%  Bush +2.59%   Kerry  +0.95%
Pennsylvania         Gore +4.17%  Kerry +2.50%  Bush  +1.67%

It is interesting that of the 10 closest states in 2000, only Florida swung to Bush above the national average.

Good idea, I'm off to do that

I don't think it would reflect that if you divided the 2000 Nader votes up.

[Jake]

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What makes you think Luzerne will flip by 2012?  I also think Carbon will flip back in 2008.  Good call on Monroe though.

Just a feel thing.  Luzerne Dems are as bad as Montco Republicans are, and hopefully, they won't get their act together anytime soon.  Also, suburbs are growing in the area, and they are becoming increasingly Republican in places like Pittston, Clarks Summit, etc. 

[Jake]

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What makes you think Luzerne will flip by 2012?  I also think Carbon will flip back in 2008.  Good call on Monroe though.

Just a feel thing.  Luzerne Dems are as bad as Montco Republicans are, and hopefully, they won't get their act together anytime soon.  Also, suburbs are growing in the area, and they are becoming increasingly Republican in places like Pittston, Clarks Summit, etc. 

IIRC, I think Clarks Summit's in Lackawanna county which will NEVER flip.

No, no matter what, Lackawanna won't ever flip.  Maybe when Allegheny does 50 years from now.