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Author Topic: Pennsylvania  (Read 12331 times)
moderate_devil_dog
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« on: March 17, 2005, 09:11:00 AM »
I know many people and news organizations consider this a "swing" state, but is it really one.  Bush won several more counties than he did in 2000 but still was not able to win the state.  Maybe someone from PA could inform as to why this is.  Also, what kind of candidate would have to run for the republicans to win the state?
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J. J.
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« Reply #1 on: March 17, 2005, 11:55:35 AM »
It was an incredibly close state; in 2004 it was roughly as close as Ohio, so it is a state that the Democratic nominee cannot take for granted (unlike NY, for example).

Basically, the challenge is the Phila suburbs.  Until 1992, these were Republican suburbs.  Basically, a candidate has to appeal to the "soccer mon" vote, and Bush could never connect with them.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2 on: March 17, 2005, 11:56:00 AM »
Pennsylvania likes to ticket split. There's your answer in brief.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #3 on: March 17, 2005, 04:36:47 PM »
All the counties that Kerry failed to retain this year were very close last time and were very close this time, so the shift was not that big.

I'm not sure what you mean by "not really a swing state".

A 1% swing towards Bush would have won him the state.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #4 on: March 17, 2005, 04:38:34 PM »
I'm still suprised that Bush won Greene but not Washington. I'd guessed the other way round.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #5 on: March 17, 2005, 04:41:38 PM »
Quote from: moderate_devil_dog on March 17, 2005, 09:11:00 AM
Also, what kind of candidate would have to run for the republicans to win the state?

Santorum  Smiley

Like Al said, Pennsylvanians like to split their ticket.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #6 on: March 17, 2005, 04:42:56 PM »
Any candidate even slightly more liberal than Bush and backed by Rove could carry the state.  Or, of course, a native son.
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Akno21
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« Reply #7 on: March 17, 2005, 04:44:57 PM »
Keep in mind Bush went there the most of any state and still lost it. It's not like he didn't commit enough resources.
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Jake
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« Reply #8 on: March 17, 2005, 05:01:14 PM »
So what is a swing state to you.  Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico were the only ones closer this year (IIRC).
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True Democrat
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« Reply #9 on: March 17, 2005, 05:05:04 PM »
Quote from: Jake on March 17, 2005, 05:01:14 PM
So what is a swing state to you.  Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico were the only ones closer this year (IIRC).

Ohio was also closer.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #10 on: March 17, 2005, 05:05:52 PM »
Quote from: President True Democrat on March 17, 2005, 05:05:04 PM
Quote from: Jake on March 17, 2005, 05:01:14 PM
So what is a swing state to you.  Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico were the only ones closer this year (IIRC).

Ohio was also closer.

Just barely.
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moderate_devil_dog
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« Reply #11 on: March 17, 2005, 05:18:03 PM »
I just could not understand why Bush could not carry PA.  Like Akno said he was there a lot.  How would PA vote if the candidates were Hilary vs. Santorum?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #12 on: March 17, 2005, 05:19:36 PM »
Quote from: moderate_devil_dog on March 17, 2005, 05:18:03 PM
How would PA vote if the candidates were Hilary vs. Santorum?

Santorum
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12th Doctor
supersoulty
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« Reply #13 on: March 17, 2005, 05:36:22 PM »
Quote from: Akno21 on March 17, 2005, 04:44:57 PM
Keep in mind Bush went there the most of any state and still lost it. It's not like he didn't commit enough resources.

Keep in mind that Kerry was also here just about every other day.
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12th Doctor
supersoulty
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« Reply #14 on: March 17, 2005, 05:37:31 PM »
Quote from: President True Democrat on March 17, 2005, 05:05:04 PM
Quote from: Jake on March 17, 2005, 05:01:14 PM
So what is a swing state to you.  Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico were the only ones closer this year (IIRC).

Ohio was also closer.

No it wasn't.  PA was closer by about .1%
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Jake
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« Reply #15 on: March 17, 2005, 05:51:32 PM »
States within 5.00% or so

Wisconsin               Kerry +0.38%
Iowa                       Bush  +0.67%
New Mexico            Bush  +0.79%
New Hampshire     Kerry +1.37%
Ohio                       Bush  +2.10%
Pennsylvania         Kerry +2.50%
Nevada                  Bush  +2.59%
Michigan                Kerry +3.42%
Minnesota             Kerry +3.48%
Oregon                  Kerry +4.16%
Colorado               Bush  +4.67%
Florida                    Bush  +5.01%
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jfern
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« Reply #16 on: March 17, 2005, 05:54:48 PM »
Speaking of ticket splitting, San Diego voted for Boxer and Bush. Has anyone figured that one out?
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Akno21
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« Reply #17 on: March 17, 2005, 06:01:13 PM »
Quote from: moderate_devil_dog on March 17, 2005, 05:18:03 PM
I just could not understand why Bush could not carry PA.  Like Akno said he was there a lot.  How would PA vote if the candidates were Hilary vs. Santorum?

It would go for the local, Santorum. In a Presidential race against Rendell, pure tossup.
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phk
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« Reply #18 on: March 17, 2005, 06:06:48 PM »
Quote from: jfern on March 17, 2005, 05:54:48 PM
Speaking of ticket splitting, San Diego voted for Boxer and Bush. Has anyone figured that one out?

As did San Bernadino, Ventura, Merced, San Joaquin and came awfully close to winning some others.

Reason: Republican opponent sucked so bad.
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Notre Dame rules!
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« Reply #19 on: March 17, 2005, 09:22:48 PM »
Had the MSM ACCURATELY  reported on the strength of the economy rather that parrot the DNC's talking points, all of the close  Blue states (including PA) would have ended up in the Bush column
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danwxman
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« Reply #20 on: March 17, 2005, 10:35:25 PM »
Kerry really didn't emphasize PA as much as I thought he would (or should). Bush on the other hand made PA his number one state...he was able to flip a few counties but still lost embarassingly.

Pennsylvania is a Democratic state.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #21 on: March 17, 2005, 11:20:52 PM »
Quote from: danwxman on March 17, 2005, 10:35:25 PM
Kerry really didn't emphasize PA as much as I thought he would (or should). Bush on the other hand made PA his number one state...he was able to flip a few counties but still lost embarassingly.

Pennsylvania is a Democratic state.

Lost embarassingly? He only lost by about 3 points in a state that is very partisan on the national level.

As for your comment about PA being a Dem state, I hope you don't mean national, statewide and local races make the state Democratic because the Republicans have a lot of control in other areas here.
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danwxman
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« Reply #22 on: March 17, 2005, 11:27:46 PM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on March 17, 2005, 11:20:52 PM
Quote from: danwxman on March 17, 2005, 10:35:25 PM
Kerry really didn't emphasize PA as much as I thought he would (or should). Bush on the other hand made PA his number one state...he was able to flip a few counties but still lost embarassingly.

Pennsylvania is a Democratic state.

Lost embarassingly? He only lost by about 3 points in a state that is very partisan on the national level.

Yes, embarassingly. He visited the state over 50 times...it was the big prize. It should have been a decisive win...what's more embarassing is that after all those visits he lost ground in Lancaster and Chester counties.

Quote from: Keystone Phil on March 17, 2005, 11:20:52 PM
As for your comment about PA being a Dem state, I hope you don't mean national, statewide and local races make the state Democratic because the Republicans have a lot of control in other areas here.

Last I checked this forum was titled "Presidential Election Trends"....Thanks!
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #23 on: March 18, 2005, 02:13:36 PM »
Quote from: danwxman on March 17, 2005, 11:27:46 PM
Quote from: Keystone Phil on March 17, 2005, 11:20:52 PM
Quote from: danwxman on March 17, 2005, 10:35:25 PM
Kerry really didn't emphasize PA as much as I thought he would (or should). Bush on the other hand made PA his number one state...he was able to flip a few counties but still lost embarassingly.

Pennsylvania is a Democratic state.

Lost embarassingly? He only lost by about 3 points in a state that is very partisan on the national level.

Yes, embarassingly. He visited the state over 50 times...it was the big prize. It should have been a decisive win...what's more embarassing is that after all those visits he lost ground in Lancaster and Chester counties.

Quote from: Keystone Phil on March 17, 2005, 11:20:52 PM
As for your comment about PA being a Dem state, I hope you don't mean national, statewide and local races make the state Democratic because the Republicans have a lot of control in other areas here.

Last I checked this forum was titled "Presidential Election Trends"....Thanks!

Seeing that Pennsylvanians are usually very partisan when it comes to Presidential elections, it wasn't an embarrassing loss.

And excuse me for assuming that you meant Pennsylvania was a Dem state all around. You should really make it clearer next time.
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MHS2002
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« Reply #24 on: March 18, 2005, 02:54:54 PM »
So Bush lost PA embarrassingly? I guess that means Kerry got his ass handed to him in Ohio then.
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