Pennsylvania

[Keystone Phil]

Also, what kind of candidate would have to run for the republicans to win the state?

Santorum  

Like Al said, Pennsylvanians like to split their ticket.

[Keystone Phil]

So what is a swing state to you.  Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico were the only ones closer this year (IIRC).

Ohio was also closer.

Just barely.

[Keystone Phil]

How would PA vote if the candidates were Hilary vs. Santorum?

Santorum

[Keystone Phil]

Kerry really didn't emphasize PA as much as I thought he would (or should). Bush on the other hand made PA his number one state...he was able to flip a few counties but still lost embarassingly.

Pennsylvania is a Democratic state.

Lost embarassingly? He only lost by about 3 points in a state that is very partisan on the national level.

As for your comment about PA being a Dem state, I hope you don't mean national, statewide and local races make the state Democratic because the Republicans have a lot of control in other areas here.

[Keystone Phil]

Kerry really didn't emphasize PA as much as I thought he would (or should). Bush on the other hand made PA his number one state...he was able to flip a few counties but still lost embarassingly.

Pennsylvania is a Democratic state.

Lost embarassingly? He only lost by about 3 points in a state that is very partisan on the national level.

Yes, embarassingly. He visited the state over 50 times...it was the big prize. It should have been a decisive win...what's more embarassing is that after all those visits he lost ground in Lancaster and Chester counties.

As for your comment about PA being a Dem state, I hope you don't mean national, statewide and local races make the state Democratic because the Republicans have a lot of control in other areas here.

Last I checked this forum was titled "Presidential Election Trends"....Thanks!

Seeing that Pennsylvanians are usually very partisan when it comes to Presidential elections, it wasn't an embarrassing loss.

And excuse me for assuming that you meant Pennsylvania was a Dem state all around. You should really make it clearer next time.

[Keystone Phil]

So Bush lost PA embarrassingly? I guess that means Kerry got his ass handed to him in Ohio then.

Not really...Florida is the embarassment for Kerry.

But Kerry focused so much on Ohio and lost by 2 points. That's just as "embarrassing" as Bush losing PA.

[Keystone Phil]

Seeing that Pennsylvanians are usually very partisan when it comes to Presidential elections, it wasn't an embarrassing loss.

One of these days I'll get around to making a map comparing party registration in PA counties to the Bush/Kerry numbers. The correlation is much lower your arguments make it seem.

Here's three to think about for now: Montgomery, Westmoreland, Greene

and do not just reply saying I know nothing about the state's politics and leave it atthat when I am simply talking about statistics.

Montco is a county with a significant spike in Dem registrations and RINOville, PA.

Westemoreland and Greene are socially Dem areas and went against the trend. What can I say?

When you look at a state that elected Santorum by about 7 points in 2000 yet went for Gore by about 4-5 points, you have to admit that there is partisanship when it comes to Presidential elections.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm not saying there's no partisanship, that's true in every state, I'm just saying you can't say that alone is why Gore and Kerry won it and it's really a very conservaitve state. There's also some county in central PA somewhere that has like a 1% GOP registration advantage that Bush won by about 20 points.

What I want to know is why a person who is basically identical to Rick Santorum ideology-wise would register as a Democrat and hten vote for Kerry on account of that alone.

Once again, you're putting words in my mouth. (You really have to stop that. It only makes you look bad.) Pennsylvania is not a very conservative state. Socially conservative, yes. Centrist on economics.

Democrats have a majority in registration here. Many have no problem voting for a Republican for State Rep., State Sen., Congressman, etc. but when the Presidential election rolls around, they're more likely to stick with their party. Now you ask why this is. Here's what I have to say (and have said to you about twenty times in the past): I don't know.

These people have been registered Democrats for awhile but are rather conservative. For whatever reason, they decide to vote for a liberal Democrat in Presidential elections. You can ask them for their reasoning.

[Keystone Phil]

Also, what kind of candidate would have to run for the republicans to win the state?

Santorum 

Like Al said, Pennsylvanians like to split their ticket.

Santorum ..... Will all due respect Phil, I think you are wrong...

Rick may do well out west, but give the Democrats a moderate Bayh/Warner nominee and I think that they would win vs Rick but about the same margin as Kerry...

I would say.....

GOP                        DEM                   Winner
Santorum               Bayh                   Bayh
Santorum               Warner               Warner
Santorum               Gore                   Santorum
Santorum               Kerry                  Santorum

I think Bayh or Warner could put up a very strong fight in PA against Santorum but I think he could win it. Not by much but still win the state.

[Keystone Phil]

Flyers: hate to spoil the party 'an all but Bucks county was actually closer in 2004 than 2000.
It's been very close every election since 1992 (and in 1976 interestingly enough).

We keep telling him that Bucks has awhile until it's a good spot for the Dems. He doesn't want to listen.

[Keystone Phil]

The irony is that Montgomery, Chester, and Delaware Counties are all Republican Counties in local elections, much like most of the Southwest is Democratic on the local level.

 Is it the same in MontoCO or are the Republicans at the local leverl very conservative like Santorum?

Neither Santorum or these local Montco officials very conservative. Montco Republicans tend to be RINOs.

[Keystone Phil]

The irony is that Montgomery, Chester, and Delaware Counties are all Republican Counties in local elections, much like most of the Southwest is Democratic on the local level.

 Is it the same in MontoCO or are the Republicans at the local leverl very conservative like Santorum?

Neither Santorum or these local Montco officials very conservative. Montco Republicans tend to be RINOs.

Come on now Phil, Santorum is very conservative.  Is he Tom COburn?  No, but that doesn't mean he isn't very conservative.  Any with your RINO's comments I assume you mean similar to Specter (moderate to liberal Republicans),  The Republicans on the local level on Long Island tend to be in the same mold

I'm not getting into the Santorum argument. I have my belief and I'm sticking to it. The same situation with you. As for local Republican officials in Montco, yes, most would be Specter Republicans.

[Keystone Phil]

The irony is that Montgomery, Chester, and Delaware Counties are all Republican Counties in local elections, much like most of the Southwest is Democratic on the local level.

 Is it the same in MontoCO or are the Republicans at the local leverl very conservative like Santorum?

Neither Santorum or these local Montco officials very conservative. Montco Republicans tend to be RINOs.

Come on now Phil, Santorum is very conservative.  Is he Tom COburn?  No, but that doesn't mean he isn't very conservative.  Any with your RINO's comments I assume you mean similar to Specter (moderate to liberal Republicans),  The Republicans on the local level on Long Island tend to be in the same mold

I'm not getting into the Santorum argument. I have my belief and I'm sticking to it. The same situation with you. As for local Republican officials in Montco, yes, most would be Specter Republicans.

To you everyone to the left of Santorum is a RINO.

I never held that opinion and I don't think anyone does. Poor attempt at a joke.

[Keystone Phil]

hey, it may just be a rumor but I heard Kerry did something really objctionable.  He was in Philly, and he ordered a Philly cheese steak, but without the spices and the onions and light on chesse and everyone in the restaurant gave him a dirty look. May not be factual or anything, but makes for a funny story.  If it is factual, someone let me know. 

Anyways I expected Bush to win this state and was surprised when Kerry won it, partially because of the story above, partially because early on Bush extensively visited the state.

Yes, Kerry made a big food mistake in the city. He asked for swiss cheese on a cheese steak. Not good.

[Keystone Phil]

hey, it may just be a rumor but I heard Kerry did something really objctionable.  He was in Philly, and he ordered a Philly cheese steak, but without the spices and the onions and light on chesse and everyone in the restaurant gave him a dirty look. May not be factual or anything, but makes for a funny story.  If it is factual, someone let me know. 

Anyways I expected Bush to win this state and was surprised when Kerry won it, partially because of the story above, partially because early on Bush extensively visited the state.

Yes, Kerry made a big food mistake in the city. He asked for swiss cheese on a cheese steak. Not good.

Oh wow!  Kerry mistakenly orders Swiss.  Guess what?  HE WON THE CITY WITH 81% OF THE VOTE!!!!

You totally missed the point.

[Keystone Phil]

hey, it may just be a rumor but I heard Kerry did something really objctionable.  He was in Philly, and he ordered a Philly cheese steak, but without the spices and the onions and light on chesse and everyone in the restaurant gave him a dirty look. May not be factual or anything, but makes for a funny story.  If it is factual, someone let me know. 

Anyways I expected Bush to win this state and was surprised when Kerry won it, partially because of the story above, partially because early on Bush extensively visited the state.

Yes, Kerry made a big food mistake in the city. He asked for swiss cheese on a cheese steak. Not good.

Oh wow!  Kerry mistakenly orders Swiss.  Guess what?  HE WON THE CITY WITH 81% OF THE VOTE!!!!

I don't know much about Philly politics but it seems like anyone with a (D) next to their name could get 80% of the vote in Philly.

Yeah. Thank you, MHS. Typical Philadelphia Democrat bragging about wins in a city that's about 80% Democratic.

[Keystone Phil]

hey, it may just be a rumor but I heard Kerry did something really objctionable.  He was in Philly, and he ordered a Philly cheese steak, but without the spices and the onions and light on chesse and everyone in the restaurant gave him a dirty look. May not be factual or anything, but makes for a funny story.  If it is factual, someone let me know. 

Anyways I expected Bush to win this state and was surprised when Kerry won it, partially because of the story above, partially because early on Bush extensively visited the state.

Yes, Kerry made a big food mistake in the city. He asked for swiss cheese on a cheese steak. Not good.

Oh wow!  Kerry mistakenly orders Swiss.  Guess what?  HE WON THE CITY WITH 81% OF THE VOTE!!!!

I don't know much about Philly politics but it seems like anyone with a (D) next to their name could get 80% of the vote in Philly.

Yeah. Thank you, MHS. Typical Philadelphia Democrat bragging about wins in a city that's about 80% Democratic.

Well, Street won the city with just slightly over 50% of the vote in 1999.  Ridge, in 1994, got 25%.  I would expect that in presidential races, the "basement" numbers might be 65%-70% for a popular, liberal Republican.

But is the bragging necessary? In a city where they clearly have an overwhelming majority, these types of wins are expected. I can almost guarentee we'll see a few Democrats bragging when the Dems win the DA and City Comptroller races.

[Keystone Phil]

hey, it may just be a rumor but I heard Kerry did something really objctionable.  He was in Philly, and he ordered a Philly cheese steak, but without the spices and the onions and light on chesse and everyone in the restaurant gave him a dirty look. May not be factual or anything, but makes for a funny story.  If it is factual, someone let me know. 

Anyways I expected Bush to win this state and was surprised when Kerry won it, partially because of the story above, partially because early on Bush extensively visited the state.

Yes, Kerry made a big food mistake in the city. He asked for swiss cheese on a cheese steak. Not good.

Oh wow!  Kerry mistakenly orders Swiss.  Guess what?  HE WON THE CITY WITH 81% OF THE VOTE!!!!

I don't know much about Philly politics but it seems like anyone with a (D) next to their name could get 80% of the vote in Philly.

Yeah. Thank you, MHS. Typical Philadelphia Democrat bragging about wins in a city that's about 80% Democratic.

Well, Street won the city with just slightly over 50% of the vote in 1999.  Ridge, in 1994, got 25%.  I would expect that in presidential races, the "basement" numbers might be 65%-70% for a popular, liberal Republican.

But is the bragging necessary? In a city where they clearly have an overwhelming majority, these types of wins are expected. I can almost guarentee we'll see a few Democrats bragging when the Dems win the DA and City Comptroller races.

 We need to go to the suburbs and rural areas for new votes.

Well, Democrats are going into Montgomery county out here in SE PA and are doing well. However, with their pickup of Montco, they're losing other areas out west.